North American Natural Gas Retainer Service

About the North American Natural Gas Retainer

Since 1981, PIRA has been the industry leader in natural gas market research and analysis, delivering key intelligence and insight on the sector. Through a comprehensive set of deliverables, PIRA’s North American Natural Gas Retainer Service provides clients with independent and timely analysis of U.S., Canadian and Mexican gas markets — including fundamentals data, price forecasting and analysis of market developments. Whether you are producing, selling, buying or trading natural gas, the service offers an unsurpassed competitive edge through ongoing analysis of supply/demand fundamentals and price movements — actual and forecast, region by region — in North America.

Retainer deliverables are provided via email and PIRA Online, as well as through direct contact with consultants and analysts over email and phone and at private briefings and seminars.

Key Features of the N.A. Natural Gas Service:

Analytical Reports:

    • North American Gas Forecast Monthly
    • North American Gas Trade Monthly
    • North American Gas Regional Monthly
    • Gas Flash Weekly
    • Current News and Analysis
    • Quarterly Fracking Policy Monitor
    • Gas Producers Quarterly Earnings Call

 Data:

    • N.A. gas prices via the Energy Price Portal
    • U.S. Natural Gas Daily Update
    • U.S. Gas Rig Monitor
    • Monthly NGL Supply and Demand Balances
    • Weekly U.S Propane Stocks by PADD

 Other:

    • Private briefings on natural gas markets
    • Phone/email access to PIRA’s consulting staff
    • 3 Invitations to the Client Seminar in New York in October
    • Discounts on other PIRA retainers (e.g. N.A. Electricity) and multi-client studies

What Do North American Natural Gas Retainer Clients Receive

All retainer service deliverables are available via PIRA Online (inclusive of a robust archive) and/or via email — including daily, weekly and monthly reports, market data and the interactive Energy Price Portal. Client consultation deliverables — email/phone access, the private briefing, and the Annual Retainer Client Seminar — are available on demand.

Analytical Reports

North American Gas Forecast Monthly

This staple report is the core of the gas service and is published in advance of “bid week,” covering North American natural gas price forecasts 12-18 months forward, along with supporting market fundamentals. It features timely analysis of changing U.S. gas balances and production trends in key shale plays— with respect to gas volumes from oil/liquids production. As part of our retainer service, subscribers receive market intelligence on the economic impacts, coal-gas dynamics and weather-driven scenarios for residential/ commercial demand.  The report also includes updated Henry Hub price projections with Excel spreadsheets of supply-demand balances and prices.Highlights include:

  • An executive overview of new and emerging price drivers
  • A “Price Scorecard” that underlines the rationale behind each factor’s bullish, bearish or neutral designation
  • “Fundamentals at a Glance” charts depicting the latest supply/demand  and storage components of PIRA’s balances

North American Gas Trade Monthly

This report provides a detailed overview of PIRA’s net U.S. gas trade forecast. The first section -in graphical form- illustrates keys metrics of the industry: imports/exports, production, storage, etc. Coverage includes key issues that will determine future trade flows. For Canada and Mexico, gas demand and domestic production forecasts are analyzed in conjunction with transportation and infrastructure developments- including oil and gas drilling activity levels. For LNG, forecasts of imports and exports are explained in the context of global gas balances. The report also includes Excel spreadsheets with economic and supply/demand insight.

North American Gas Regional Monthly

This report contains an overview of market dynamics, and its impact on regional gas prices. The first section examines key developments that will impact basis differentials in the Northeast (NY Z6, Algonquin, Dominion), Midwest (Chicago, Dawn, Midcontinent, AECO), West (SoCal, Waha, Opal, PG&E) and South (South TX, HSC, Transco St. 85, FGT Z3) —all delivered in a concise, bulleted format.  Section two of the report provides a graphical summary of the regional fundamental drivers, along with commentary on current issues in the marketplace. Highlights include:

  • Storage in the U.S. and Canada
  • A breakdown of U.S. drilling and production trends
  • Gas exports from the Rockies and Canada.
  • Coverage addresses regional degree days, gas-fired electric generation by major grid (i.e. East, ERCOT, and the WECC) and major market gas demand by Census Region.

Gas Flash Weekly

This essential deliverable is released after the EIA storage survey. It provides a concise analysis of the results and a timely update to PIRA’s short-term gas market fundamentals and price outlook. 

Projections of U.S. and Canadian monthly gas balances and production data from PIRA’s pipeline scrapes are analyzed. Highlights include:

  • End-month storage levels
  • Identification of weather-related impacts
  • Supply/demand storage outlook.
  • Weekly in-depth discussion of market developments and topical coverage of current market dynamics are also featured.

UPDATE: To better meet the needs of our North American Natural Gas retainer clients, in January 2014 PIRA revised the format of the Gas Flash Weekly. Content of the report will now be limited to discussion around the most recent EIA storage data, near-term gas market fundamentals and related pricing implications, as well as an outlook for week-in-progress storage changes. Analysis of special subjects, previously contained within the Flash, are now released in our new North American Natural Gas Current News and Analysis reports (below).

North American Natural Gas Current News and Analysis — NEW Deliverable

This new key deliverable keeps clients abreast of the latest developments affecting natural gas markets. Sent as market events dictate, the report cover relevant topics of interest and is distributed on a timely basis such that it reflects the most up-to-date information. 

Fracking Policy Monitor

Quarterly report that examines the latest U.S. policy developments at the local, state and federal level. Highlights include:

  • Regulatory actions, legislative initiatives, court rulings, trends in public opinion and scientific studies that influence future production activity.
  • Analysis that underpins PIRA’s assessments of future prospects for liquids and gas from fracking, which are critical to both short- and longer-term balances for North American gas and, to an increasing extent, North American and global oil.

U.S. Gas Producer Earnings Call Quarterly Update

A detailed written summary of quarterly earnings calls from top shale-focused U.S. natural gas producers, with an emphasis on factors likely to affect production. Such factors include drilling activity levels and recent well results — as well as any pricing or infrastructure issues.

Data

The Energy Price Portal

A key feature of all PIRA retainers, the Energy Price Portal allows users quick and easy access to PIRA’s latest price forecasts for 21 different gas pricing points in North America, the ability to create and store custom price spreads, and view data in different currencies or units.

A key feature of the Energy Price Portal is PIRA’s Equation Manager, a specially designed utility that allows users to define, analyze and store up to 100 custom price spreads — across commodities and inclusive of freight — in the form of multi-variable equations that use PIRA’s forecast prices. With the Equation Manager, users can store individual configurations and use these spread relationships as a predictive tool in forecasting price developments.

The Portal also provides the ability to create and export large data sets in Excel, CSV and PDF formats, in addition to click-of-the-mouse charting capabilities.  The Portal’s forecast horizons include both short-term (monthly to December 2013) and long-term (annual to 2030) averages.

North American Natural Gas Prices Contained in the Energy Price Portal:

  • Appalachia (Dominion [CNG])
  • Midcontinent (Panhandle Eastern)
  • Rockies (Opal)
  • California (PG&E Citygate)
  • Middle Atlantic (Transco Zone 6)
  • San Juan Basin (El Paso non-Bondad)
  • California (Southern California Border)
  • New England (Algonquin Citygate)
  • Southeast (FGT Zone 3)
  • East Texas (Houston Ship Channel)
  • Pacific Northwest (Main Line 400)
  • South Texas (Texas Eastern)
  • Henry Hub
  • Pacific Northwest (Stanfield)
  • Southeast (Transco Sta. 85)
  • Midwest (Chicago Citygate)
  • Pacific Northwest (Sumas)
  • West Texas (Waha)
  • Midwest (Dawn)
  • Rockies (Cheyenne hubs)
  • Western Canada (Nova/AECO C)

U.S. Natural Gas Daily Update

Emailed each morning in Excel and PDF formats, the U.S. Natural Gas Daily Update is comprised of two key deliverables:

1. Gas Demand Daily Forecast is composed of tables incorporating more than 200 discrete inputs to generate seven-days-forward demand forecasts on a regional level and by the following end-use sectors:

  • Industrial Gas Demand (Eastern, Central, Western)
  • Gas-Fired Electric Generation (Eastern, ERCOT, Western)
  • Residential/Commercial Demand incorporates NOAA daily temperature forecasts between October and April when heating loads have the largest impact. During the heating season, each census region is separately forecast (Northeast, Midwest, South, West)

2. Lower 48 Gas Production Daily Tracker provides a snapshot of PIRA’s pipeline flow models for the recent 14-day period — yielding comparisons between the latest seven days and the prior seven days. Lower 48 dry gas production estimates are driven by daily pipeline flow models after adjustments to account for unreported volumes, which are mostly intrastate pipeline throughputs.

U.S. Gas Rig Monitor

This report captures a detailed summary of weekly U.S. natural gas and oil drilling activity in key U.S. plays and regions. It is published on Fridays. The report includes a supporting Excel data file that contains weekly historical rig count data by type, play and basin since January 2010.

Monthly NGL Price Forecasts and Supply and Demand Balances

An Excel file with detailed balances and prices for ethane, propane, butanes and natural gasoline. Updated monthly, the file provides actuals and forecasts to 2013, and the implied extraction margins.

Weekly U.S. Propane Stocks by PADD

This report contains weekly data and commentary on U.S. and regional propane and propylene inventories. The discussion section provides perspective into weekly stock changes; while the data section, in Excel format, provides the weekly stock levels and changes for the most recent three months. Highlights include: Year-ago stock levels/changes and year-on-year comparisons. Graphs are provided to place national and regional stock data into context.

Other Deliverables

PIRA Online also features other energy- and economics-related reports and data, including:

  • Macroeconomic Data: Continuously updated analysis of currencies, the U.S./world economies, manufacturing, and transportation (land, air, sea, and rail).
  • Global Equity Market Performance: Updated weekly, this report tracks the performance of equity markets in countries and regions around the world.
  • Financial Stress Monitor: Weekly charts summarizing key financial indicators, such as U.S. commercial bank loan developments, equity markets, currencies, interest rates, commercial paper market activity, corporate and Eurodollar spreads, and the DJ-AIG Commodity Index.
  • Storm Watch: The latest tracking information from the National Hurricane Center for storms that threaten oil and gas production facilities in the Gulf of Mexico.
  • Slideshow presenting latest available air traffic data for the total system and international air travel for the U.S. and Europe.

Private Briefing

PIRA’s senior gas consultants are available on a private basis to discuss PIRA’s latest thinking and address each client’s specific issues by assessing how the markets will impact their business, including special interest topics as requested.

Phone/Email Access to PIRA’s Natural Gas Group

Clients can obtain timely analytical support and additional market information while discussing our latest insight on short-term natural gas markets with PIRA analysts.

Annual Retainer Client Seminar

The annual seminar presents PIRA’s medium- and long-term view of oil, gas, coal and electricity markets. Excel spreadsheets of world energy forecasts by region and energy sources through 2030 are included.  All presentations from PIRA’s seminar (audio and visual) will be available to our clients via our website.

Discounts on PIRA’s Other Retainers and Multi-Client Studies

Clients receive discounts when adding other retainer services (e.g. Global Oil, N.A. Electric PowerEuropean Natural Gas and Scenario Planning Service) or when purchasing multi-client studies, which recently include "The Road to U.S. Energy Independence: The Shale Revolution and Its Implications for North America’s Energy Markets."

PIRA's North American Natural Gas Group

Gregory J. Shuttlesworth (Executive Director) oversees PIRA’s research covering all aspects of North American natural gas fundamentals. His work is aimed at providing PIRA clients with in-depth and timely analysis of how fast-breaking events will impact gas supply and demand, inter-fuel competition and the outlook for gas prices. He is a principal author of PIRA’s Gas Forecast Monthly, Gas Flash Weekly and Gas Trade Monthly. Before starting PIRA’s Natural Gas Group, his professional career centered on global petroleum and related energy economics. He held the positions of Senior Analyst at the petroleum-consulting firm of W.J. Levy Associates and Energy Economist at the Chase Manhattan Bank. Greg holds a B.A. from Johns Hopkins University, an M.B.A from Fairleigh Dickinson University and completed post-Masters studies in economics at NYU. 

Richard M. Redash (Managing Director) has over 20 years of energy industry experience with current responsibilities centered on fundamentals analysis. He is a principal author of PIRA’s Gas Forecast Monthly, Gas Flash Weekly, and Gas Regional Monthly. He leads PIRA’s regional gas market coverage and basis analysis. Rich came to PIRA in 1999 from Prudential Securities, where he was Vice President of Energy Futures Research with responsibility for fundamentals encompassing the NYMEX energy complex. Previously, he was a NYMEX Research Department analyst covering natural gas, global crude oil and petroleum products and prior to NYMEX he had been a gas market analyst at Consolidated Edison of New York. He is a summa cum laude graduate from Pace University with a Bachelors of Business Administration and holds an M.B.A. with distinction from New York University. 

Harvey L. Harmon (Senior Director) has over 30 years of energy industry experience. Before joining PIRA, he worked at the U.S. DOE as Director of Natural Gas Import/Export Activities and Senior LNG Policy Advisor. He joined the Global LNG unit of El Paso in 2001 and was responsible for competitor and market analysis until 2003. He has been a consultant for Shell Gas & Power on LNG issues. While at Tennessee Gas Pipeline and El Paso, he spearheaded studies of demand, pipeline capacity and transportation issues with emphasis on competition at citygate markets.  Earlier in his career at Fluor Daniel, he spent several years in Saudi Arabia designing offshore platforms. Harvey holds a M.S. in ocean engineering from the University of Wisconsin and an M.B.A from the University of Texas.

Nina J. Fahy (Associate Director) is responsible for PIRA’s analysis of U.S. near-term fundamentals that impact weekly and monthly gas storage forecasts. She is a team leader in developing new North American gas market analytics that utilize daily updates of production and demand driven by PIRA’s pipeline flow models. For the Gas Trade Monthly, she is responsible for analysis of all aspects of Canadian gas balances except domestic production. Prior to joining PIRA, Nina conducted competitive benchmarking and market trends analysis of the investment management industry at Greenwich Associates. She is a summa cum laude graduate from Tufts with a B.A. degree in political science and Russian and East European studies and a M.S. in political science from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. She is a CFA Level II candidate.

Jane J. Hsu (Senior Analyst) was a Systems Analyst for Strand Management Solutions prior to PIRA. At PIRA, she focuses on North American natural gas fundamentals and is responsible for maintaining and updating PIRA’s detailed North American supply/demand balances as well as numerous analytical models that represent the backbone of PIRA’s near-term and longer-term forecasts. Jane has a B.S. degree in computer science from Columbia University.

Sheena R. Eaton (Senior Analyst) joined PIRA's North American Natural Gas group in 2011. She contributes to all of the team’s major reports, with a focus on U.S. and Canadian gas production and reserves. She is jointly responsible for PIRA’s weekly gas storage forecast— published in the Gas Weather Outlook. Prior to joining PIRA, she worked as both a reservoir engineer and reserves analyst at Nexen, one of Canada’s largest international exploration and production firms. She has a B.E. in chemical engineering from the University of Saskatchewan.

Sam S. Phillips (Analyst) works primarily on short-term supply/demand fundamentals and is jointly responsible for PIRA’s weekly gas storage forecast published in the Gas Weather Outlook. He contributes to all major reports, with a specific focus on the Mexican market and PIRA’s GUMI model of industrial demand. Prior to joining PIRA, he worked as mechanical design engineer at École Centrale Paris. Sam graduated from Massachusetts Institute of Technology with a B.S. degree in mechanical engineering and a minor in physics.

Fees

The North American Natural Gas Retainer Service can be purchased on its own. Clients of PIRA's Global Oil and North American Electricity retainer services may subscribe to the Natural Gas retainer under discounted terms, which are determined by the scope of their current license to those other services. For prices, please contact your PIRA account executive.