North American Electricity Retainer Service

About the North American Electricity Retainer Service

PIRA’s North American Electricity Retainer Service provides clients with regular updates on market fundamentals and intelligence for the North American power industry and U.S. coal markets. Through a comprehensive set of deliverables, the Electricity Retainer delivers independent and timely analysis — including fundamentals data, price forecasting and insight on market developments. Whether you are selling, buying or trading electricity, the retainer service offers an unsurpassed competitive edge through ongoing analysis of supply/demand fundamentals and price movements — actual and forecast — on a regional level across North America.

Key Features of the North American Electricity Retainer

Retainer deliverables are provided through online and email access to reports and data. Retainer users also have email, phone and seminar access to PIRA consultants and analysts.

Features of the North American Electricity Retainer include:

  • Weekly and monthly analysis of electricity and coal market fundamentals
  • Historical and short-/long-term forecasts for on-peak/off-peak prices and related implied gas heat rates
  • Complete coverage of Eastern and Western grids and ERCOT
  • U.S. coal stockpile estimates, with insight into price impacts
  • Timely reports on breaking electricity and coal market developments
  • Powerful charting and data sets — all available for quick download
  • Access to PIRA’s experienced consulting staff

Key deliverables of the service:

  • Monthly Eastern Grid/ERCOT Market Forecast report
  • Monthly Western Grid Market Forecast report
  • Monthly U.S. Coal Market Forecast report
  • Monthly U.S. Coal Stockpile Estimates report
  • Twice-monthly regional electric load estimate data
  • Forecasts of short- and long-term electricity prices and spark spreads
  • Phone/email access to PIRA’s consulting staff
  • Invitations to PIRA’s Annual Client Seminar in NYC

All deliverables are available online and/or via email — including daily, weekly and monthly reports, market data, briefings, seminars and PIRA’s interactive Energy Price Portal.

What Do North American Electricity Retainer Clients Receive

Western Grid Market Forecast

This monthly report contains a comprehensive analysis of the fundamentals that drive power prices in the Western Grid, as well as implied gas heat rates, trade, and the power market’s impacts on related fossil fuel markets.  PIRA uses its proprietary energy and capacity models in preparing these outlooks. Highlights include:

  • 12-month projections for on-peak and off-peak power prices for Mid-Columbia (WA), California-Oregon Border (COB), SP-15/ NP-15 (CA), and Palo Verde (AZ).
  • Analysis on supply/demand — including hydro, nuclear, coal- and gas-fired generation.
  • Coverage of demand response and their expected impacts on forward prices and heat rates — including natural gas/coal markets and related generation.

Eastern Grid/ERCOT Market Forecast

This monthly report contains a comprehensive analysis of the fundamentals that drive power prices in the Eastern/ERCOT Grid, as well as implied gas heat rates, trade and the power market’s impacts on related fossil fuel markets.  PIRA uses its proprietary energy and capacity models in preparing these outlooks. Highlights include:

  • 12-month projections for on-peak and off-peak power prices for Mass Hub (NEISO), NYISO: Zones J-G-A, PJM-W, Ontario (IESO), Cinergy-Hub, Northern Illinois Hub, Minnesota Hub, TVA, Florida/Georgia Border, Entergy and ERCOT South
  • Extensive analysis of inter-fuel competitive factors throughout various regions of the Eastern Interconnection
  • Cutting-edge intelligence into the Eastern Grid’s/ERCOT’s impact on natural gas, coal and various emissions markets

Long-Term Forecast

This essential long-term forecast (currently through 2030) of load, resources, on-peak/off-peak power prices, and related implied gas heat rates covers all major hubs throughout the Eastern, Western and ERCOT interconnections- including out-of-cycle updates when significant changes occur in the fundamentals.

U.S. Coal Market Forecast and Coal Stockpile Estimates

These two monthly reports provide analysis and data on a wide range of issues affecting supply, demand, balances and, ultimately, prices of coal in the various U.S. supply basins and consuming regions. Coverage includes developments in metallurgical coal and related thermal markets and trade. The U.S. Coal Stockpile Estimates report provides estimates of stocks in 10 regions along with their possible implications on coal pricing.

Coverage includes SAPP, NAPP, CAPP, ILB, SPRB and other supply basins (Central Interior, several western — CO/UT, southern WY, MT, AK — as well as the lignite basins). Features detailed tabular data (historical/ forecast) and price outlooks for 2 CAPP products, NAPP (Pitt 8), ILB products, 8,400 Btu/# , 8,800 Btu/# SPRB products. Highlights include: analysis of interplaying factors such as production, SO2 and NOx credit trading, weather, transportation, natural gas competition and the economy.

Regional Electric Load Estimates

PIRA gathers hourly demand and weather data in order to calculate changes in structural electric loads. The data include our estimates of weather-adjusted loads for three provincial power markets (Ontario, Alberta, British Columbia) and for nine U.S. ISOs/regions. In addition, the report provides sub-regional detail for those markets where we can acquire disaggregated load data (NYISO, PJM and ERCOT). It is released twice monthly (the first and third week of each month).

Special Electricity Reports and Market Updates

Brief, timely reports and market commentaries that cover topics that are relevant near-term and can influence trading strategy.  Such items may include reports on important issues that impact and could impact future electricity markets. Recent examples:

Phone/Email Access to PIRA’s Electricity Group

Clients can obtain timely analytical support and additional market information while discussing our latest insight into short-term electricity markets, as well as long-term market information on short-term natural gas. Clients can also request research on special topics with a quick turnaround, including conference calls with our market analysts. 

PIRA Online

PIRA Online is the gateway to timely and convenient short- and long-term price forecasts for North American electricity markets. It is the easiest way for clients to interact with PIRA’s data sets and to take advantage of multiple-user, multi-site licenses. It includes:

The Energy Price Portal. A key feature of PIRA Online, the Energy Price Portal allows users quick access to PIRA’s latest price forecasts for short- and long-term electricity prices, all retrieved at the individual user's discretion. The Energy Price Portal also features PIRA's Equation Manager, a specially designed utility that allows users to define, analyze and store up to 100 custom price spreads in the form of multi-variable equations using PIRA’s forecast prices. With the Equation Manager, users can store individual configurations and use these spread relationships as a predictive tool in forecasting price developments.

The portal also provides the ability to create and export large data sets in Excel, CSV and PDF formats, as well as click-of-the-mouse charting capabilities.  The Portal’s forecast horizons include both short-term monthly averages and long-term (annual averages to 2030). 

North American Electricity prices contained in the Energy Price Portal are listed below: 

East:

Cinergy Hub

Into TVA

NY Zone A

ERCOT South Zone

Mass. Hub (New England)

NY Zone G

FLA/GA Border

Minnesota Hub

NY Zone J

Into Entergy

Northern Illinois Hub

Ontario

PJM West Hub

West:

COB

NP15 (Cal)

SP15 (Cal)

Mid-Columbia

Palo Verde

New Generation Capacity Database. Available on request, this proprietary database tracks planned, under-construction, commercially in service and retired generation in North America.  

Strategic Briefings

PIRA’s senior electricity consultants are available on a private basis to discuss PIRA’s latest thinking and address each client’s specific issues by assessing how the markets will impact their business, including special interest topics as requested.

Annual Retainer Client Seminar

The annual client seminar presents PIRA’s medium- and long-term view of oil, gas, coal and electricity markets. It includes a half day plenary and 1 ½ days of over 25 breakout workshops on all major energy commodity markets. All presentations from PIRA’s seminar (audio and visual) will be available to clients via our web site.

Discounts on PIRA’s Other Retainers and Multi-client Studies

Electricity Retainer Clients get significant discounts when adding other retainers (e.g. North American Natural Gas, European ElectricityInternational Coal and so on) to their service package.  They also receive discounts on PIRA’s highly valuable multi-client studies.

The North American Electricity Group

Allan M. Stewart (Executive Director) directs the analysis of North American electric power, coal and other related fuel and emissions markets, translating PIRA's market analysis into commercial strategies for electricity and other energy companies.  Prior to joining PIRA in 1992, Allan spent over 18 years with Consolidated Edison Company in various senior positions in supply, business development, planning, marketing, rates, engineering, operations, and information policy.  He earned a B.S. in civil engineering at the State University of New York in Buffalo and an M.B.A. in finance and investments from Adelphi University; he has taken post-masters coursework in economics at NYU.

Morris J. Greenberg (Managing Director) develops short-term and long-term regional electricity-pricing models based on detailed analysis of North American electric supply, demand and pricing.  He has over 25 years of experience in consulting, planning and finance, most recently as Vice President and Senior Energy Analyst at Lehman Brothers and Director of the WEFA Energy Group.  Mr. Greenberg has a B.S. in economics from the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, and an M.S. in economics from Temple University.

Roman Kramarchuk (Managing Director, Emissions and Clean Energy) heads up PIRA's Greenhouse Gas Emissions and North American Environmental Markets services.  Prior to joining PIRA in 2005, he was extensively involved in the development of the CAIR and CAMR (Mercury) Rules and the BART Guidelines with the U.S. EPA’s Clean Air Markets Division.  Working at PG&E NEG and with PA Consulting / PHB Hagler Bailly, he evaluated strategies regarding power sector fuel choice, allowance purchases and capital investments in pollution control equipment and advised on plant development/acquisition and asset valuation.  Roman also spent several years working on USAID- and World Bank-funded projects to develop power markets, market rules and regulatory capacity in Ukraine, Armenia and India.  He has an M.P.P. from the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard and a B.A. in economics and B.S.E. in systems engineering from the University of Pennsylvania.

Daniel J. Klein (Managing Director, International Coal) heads up the International Coal Services and is the primary author of the International Thermal Coal Market Forecast and International Coal Markets Scorecard, as well as collaborating on the short- and long-term outlooks for the U.S. Coal Market.  Prior to directing the International Coal Service, Mr. Klein was a member of PIRA’s North American Electricity team, beginning in 2003. He has a B.A. in economics from Calvin College.

Robert (Bob) Roth (Senior Director, North American Coal) joined PIRA in 2008 to lead PIRA’s U.S. coal market analysis.  He is responsible for the U.S. Coal Market Forecast, U.S. Stockpile Estimates as well as assisting with the International Thermal Coal Market reports and monthly electricity reports.  Bob comes to PIRA from Louis Dreyfus Highbridge Energy Services, where he led their U.S. coal and emissions analytics.  Prior to LDH, he served as Director of Energy Economics at Peabody Energy.  He began his career in the electric power industry spending 15 years with Illinois Power Company and Progress Energy Corp in a variety of roles. He holds an M.S. and a B.S. in economics from Illinois State University.

Manan Ahuja (Director) is responsible for developing new products, models and comprehensive fundamentals analysis. His responsibilities include short-, medium- and long-term energy and capacity forecasts for North American electricity markets. Manan provides a commercial edge to analyses and product development through his prior experience in trading, decision analytics, private equity and start-ups. Prior to joining PIRA, he has been a decision scientist with Mu Sigma and VP of Power and Gas Trading at Barclays. He also has experience in private equity and in building start-ups at Sequoia Capital and at Evalueserve, respectively. Manan has an MBA from Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, and a Bachelor in chemical engineering from Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi.

Glenn Schwartz (Senior Analyst, Emissions and Clean Energy) joined PIRA in 2010. He is responsible for tracking U.S. federal, state-by-state, and international regulations and legislation and assessing their impact on renewable markets and on the markets of complementary sectors. Prior to joining PIRA, Glenn worked as an attorney with experience in environmental and energy law. He has a B.A. in economics from the University of Pennsylvania and received his J.D. at Temple University Beasley School of Law.

Jake Jian (Senior Analyst) joined PIRA in 2010. He is responsible for conducting research and data analysis in electricity demand. Prior to joining PIRA, Jake conducted data analysis and built financial models at Morgan Stanley. Jake holds B.A. in economics from University of Virginia, an M.A. in economics from Boston College, and an M.A. in statistics from Columbia University.

Fees

PIRA's North American Electricity Retainer Service can be purchased on its own. Clients to PIRA's Global Oil and North American Natural Gas retainer services may subscribe to the Electricity Retainer under discounted terms, which are determined by the scope of their current license to those other services. For prices and options, please contact your PIRA account executive.