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PIRA’s North American Electricity Retainer Service provides clients with commercially oriented fundamentals analysis and intelligence for the North American power industry and U.S. coal markets. Through a comprehensive set of deliverables, PIRA’s Electricity Retainer Service delivers independent and timely analysis — including fundamentals data, price forecasting and insight on market developments. Whether you are hedging, making investment decisions, or doing valuation in electricity and coal markets, this retainer service offers an unsurpassed competitive edge through ongoing analysis of supply/demand fundamentals and price movements — actual and forecast — on a regional level across North America.
Retainer deliverables are provided through online and email access to reports and data. Retainer users also have email, phone and seminar access to PIRA consultants and analysts.
Features of the North American Electricity Retainer include:
All service deliverables are available online and/or via email — including daily, weekly and monthly reports, market data, briefings, seminars and PIRA’s interactive Energy Price Portal.
This monthly report contains a comprehensive analysis of the fundamentals that drive power prices in the Western Grid, as well as implied gas heat rates, net import/export, and the power market’s impacts on related fossil fuel markets. PIRA uses its proprietary energy and capacity models in preparing these outlooks. Highlights include:
12-month projections (updated monthly) for on-peak and off-peak power prices for Mid-Columbia (WA), California-Oregon Border (COB), SP-15/ NP-15 (CA), and Palo Verde (AZ)
Analysis on supply/demand — including hydro, nuclear, coal- and gas-fired generation
2-year-forward projections of the above delivered every quarter
20-year-forward projections of the above delivered every six months
Impact assessment of other issues, such as renewables, demand response, energy efficiency, regulations, etc.
This monthly report contains a comprehensive analysis of the fundamentals that drive power prices in the Eastern/ERCOT Grid, as well as implied gas heat rates, net import/export, and the power market’s impacts on related fossil fuel markets. PIRA uses its proprietary energy and capacity models in preparing these outlooks. Highlights include:
Available through PIRA’s new client portal, this essential long-term forecast (currently through 2035) of load, resources, on-peak/off-peak power prices, and related implied gas heat rates covers all major hubs throughout the Eastern, Western and ERCOT interconnections- including out-of-cycle updates when significant changes occur in the fundamentals.
These two monthly reports provide analysis and data on a wide range of issues affecting supply, demand, balances and, ultimately, prices of coal in the various U.S. supply basins and consuming regions. Coverage includes developments in metallurgical coal and related thermal markets and trade. The U.S. Coal Stockpile Estimates report provides estimates of stocks in 10 regions along with their possible implications on coal pricing.
Coverage includes SAPP, NAPP, CAPP, ILB, SPRB and other supply basins (Central Interior, several western — CO/UT, southern WY, MT, AK — as well as the lignite basins). Features detailed tabular data (historical/ forecast) and price outlooks for 2 CAPP products, NAPP (Pitt 8), ILB products, 8,400 Btu/# , 8,800 Btu/# SPRB products. Highlights include: analysis of interplaying factors such as production, SO2 and NOx credit trading, weather, transportation, natural gas competition and the economy.
PIRA gathers hourly demand and weather data in order to calculate changes in structural electric loads. The data include our estimates of weather-adjusted loads for three provincial power markets (Ontario, Alberta, British Columbia) and for nine U.S. ISOs/regions. In addition, the report provides sub-regional detail for those markets where we can acquire disaggregated load data (NYISO, PJM and ERCOT). It is released twice monthly (the first and third week of each month).
Brief, timely reports and market commentaries that cover topics that are relevant near-term and can influence trading strategy. Such items may include reports on important issues that impact and could impact future electricity markets. Recent example: PJM RPM Capacity Auction Analysis (in advance of the auction).
Clients can obtain timely analytical support and additional market information while discussing our latest insight into short-term electricity markets, as well as long-term market information on short-term natural gas. Clients can also request research on special topics with a quick turnaround, including conference calls with our market analysts.
The Daily Electricity Demand Forecast — a premium service offered to clients of PIRA’s retainer services for an incremental fee — is designed for eastern and western U.S. electricity market participants, as well as natural gas and coal traders. The report, sent to subscribers by email every morning (including weekends) before 7:30 a.m. EST, predicts regional loads in the Eastern and Western Interconnect as well as ERCOT. The demand projections incorporate the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) seven-day forward model output statistics (MOS) weather forecast for more than 200 weather stations in the U.S. and Canada. The projections of peak-hour, on-peak, off-peak and average daily electricity demand cover more than 65 power market regions and sub-regions in North America.
PIRA Online is the gateway to timely and convenient short- and long-term price forecasts for North American electricity markets. It is the easiest way for clients to interact with PIRA’s data sets and to take advantage of multiple-user, multi-site licenses. It includes:
The Energy Price Portal. A key feature of PIRA Online, the Energy Price Portal allows users quick access to PIRA’s latest price forecasts for short- and long-term electricity prices, all retrieved at the individual user's discretion. The Energy Price Portal also features PIRA's Equation Manager, a specially designed utility that allows users to define, analyze and store up to 100 custom price spreads in the form of multi-variable equations using PIRA’s forecast prices. With the Equation Manager, users can store individual configurations and use these spread relationships as a predictive tool in forecasting price developments.
The portal also provides the ability to create and export large data sets in Excel, CSV and PDF formats, as well as click-of-the-mouse charting capabilities. The Portal’s forecast horizons include both short-term monthly averages and long-term (annual averages to 2035).
North American Electricity prices contained in the Energy Price Portal are listed below:
MISO LA, TX and AR hubs
NY Zone G
PJM West Hub
ERCOT South Zone
Northern Illinois Hub
NY Zone J
PJM AD Hub
Mass. Hub (New England)
NY Zone A
SPP North and
New Generation Capacity Database. Available on request, this proprietary database tracks planned, under-construction, commercially in service and retired generation in North America.
PIRA’s senior electricity consultants are available on a private basis to discuss PIRA’s latest thinking and address each client’s specific issues by assessing how the markets will impact their business, including special interest topics as requested.
The Annual Retainer Client Seminar, held each October in New York City, presents PIRA’s medium- and long-term view of oil, gas, coal and electricity markets. It includes a half day plenary and 1 ½ days of breakout workshops on all major energy commodity markets. All presentations from the seminar (audio and visual) will be available to clients via our Web site.
Electricity Retainer Clients get significant discounts when adding other retainers (e.g. North American Natural Gas, European Electricity, International Coal, Environmental Markets, Daily Electricity Demand Forecast, and so on) to their service package. They also receive discounts on PIRA’s highly valuable multi-client studies.
Allan M. Stewart (Executive Director) directs the analysis of North American electric power, coal and other related fuel and emissions markets, translating PIRA's market analysis into commercial strategies for electricity and other energy companies. Prior to joining PIRA in 1992, Allan spent over 18 years with Consolidated Edison Company in various senior positions in supply, business development, planning, marketing, rates, engineering, operations, and information policy. He earned a B.S. in civil engineering at the State University of New York in Buffalo and an M.B.A. in finance and investments from Adelphi University; he has taken post-masters coursework in economics at NYU.
Morris J. Greenberg (Managing Director) develops short-term and long-term regional electricity-pricing models based on detailed analysis of North American electric supply, demand and pricing. He has over 25 years of experience in consulting, planning and finance, most recently as Vice President and Senior Energy Analyst at Lehman Brothers and Director of the WEFA Energy Group. Mr. Greenberg has a B.S. in economics from the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, and an M.S. in economics from Temple University.
Manan Ahuja (Director, Electric Power) is responsible for developing new products, models, and comprehensive fundamentals analysis, which includes short-, medium- and long-term energy and capacity forecasts for North American electricity markets. Manan provides a commercial edge to analyses and product development through his prior experience in trading, decision analytics, private equity and start-ups. Prior to joining PIRA, he was a decision scientist with Mu Sigma and VP of Power and Gas Trading at Barclays. He also has experience in private equity and in building start-ups at Sequoia Capital and at Evalueserve, respectively. Manan has an MBA from Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad, and a BS in chemical engineering from Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi.
Daniel J. Klein (Managing Director, International Coal) heads up PIRA's International Coal Service and is the primary author of the International Thermal Coal Market Forecast and International Coal Markets Scorecard, as well as collaborating on the short- and long-term outlooks for the U.S. Coal Market. Prior to directing the International Coal Service, Mr. Klein was a member of PIRA’s North American Electricity team, beginning in 2003. He has a B.A. in economics from Calvin College.
Robert (Bob) Roth (Senior Director, North American Coal) joined PIRA in 2008 to lead PIRA’s U.S. coal market analysis. He is responsible for the U.S. Coal Market Forecast, U.S. Stockpile Estimates as well as assisting with the International Thermal Coal Market reports and monthly electricity reports. Bob comes to PIRA from Louis Dreyfus Highbridge Energy Services, where he led their U.S. coal and emissions analytics. Prior to LDH, he served as Director of Energy Economics at Peabody Energy. He began his career in the electric power industry spending 15 years with Illinois Power Company and Progress Energy Corp in a variety of roles. He holds an M.S. and a B.S. in economics from Illinois State University.
Jake Jian (Senior Analyst, Electric Power) joined PIRA in 2010. He is responsible for conducting research and data analysis in electricity demand. Prior to joining PIRA, Jake conducted data analysis and built financial models at Morgan Stanley. Jake holds B.A. in economics from University of Virginia, an M.A. in economics from Boston College, and an M.A. in statistics from Columbia University.
PIRA's North American Electricity Retainer Service can be purchased on its own. Clients to PIRA's Global Oil and North American Natural Gas retainer services may subscribe to the Electricity Retainer under discounted terms, which are determined by the scope of their current license to those other services. For prices and options, please contact your PIRA account executive.