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Comprehensive Analysis of North American Environmental Regulations and Markets for CO2, NOx, SO2, Mercury, and Renewables, Assessing Allowance/Credit Prices, Energy Markets and Assets
PIRA’s North American Environmental Markets Service (N.A. EMS) gives clients both the big picture — for perspective on significant long-term emissions regulatory and market developments — as well as up-to-date, detailed data and analysis needed to make informed near-term decisions. PIRA examines the forces that affect the U.S. acid rain, fine particulate and ozone-related emissions markets (i.e. for NOx and SO2); markets for greenhouse gases (such as RGGI and CA/WCI); emerging controls for mercury, heavy metals, acid gases, and other waste discharges into the air, water or land. Policies promoting renewable power, including markets for RECs to meet state Renewables Portfolio Standards, have joined the suite of market-based approaches encouraging clean energy and these are also addressed in this context. PIRA's experienced analysis of the details of complex federal, regional, state and provincial regulations can help guide decision-makers and market participants.
Clients of N.A. EMS benefit from:
Clients of PIRA’s N.A. EMS benefit from the following “deliverables”:
Committed to aggressive GHG reduction targets by the Copenhagen Accord, the U.S. and Canada are seeing continued developments in regulating GHG emissions. On a U.S. federal level, regulatory options for national programs are being developed and discussed, with the EPA taking the lead, and the choices made can have serious implications for market players. Stationary-source emissions limits are already in effect through new source permitting requirements, and new emissions performance standards have been proposed. While federal Canadian GHG reduction efforts have been progressing slowly, with programs seeing starts and stops, there has also been significant policy activity on the provincial level. Western Canada's status as a major energy producer places further challenges to emissions-reduction efforts. The North American GHG Quarterly Update reviews the policy processes and offers timely assessments of the latest developments. It also looks at the latest emissions trends across sectors, helping inform, prepare and shape industry responses to potential new markets and regulations.
Quarterly assessments of the SO2 and NOx emissions policies and markets, generally following the release of the EPA CEMs data, analyzing the most recent trends in generation, emissions, weather, fuel use, control equipment and related fundamental factors driving the markets. Analysis also includes more detailed assessments of the latest regulatory and legal developments impacting the implementation of programs to reduce these emissions.
Assessments of the emerging California CO2 cap and trade market analyzing the most recent trends in the economy, activity/emissions in the different covered sectors/industries, fuel use, linkage with other markets, offset supply and policy and related fundamental factors. Analysis includes more detailed assessments of the latest regulatory and legal developments impacting implementation.
Released in the intervening months between the North American GHG Quarterly Updates, this report summarizes and assesses market influences affecting the nation’s first CO2 cap-and-trade system — the Northeast State Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI). Charts and graphs regularly accompany the accessible and understandable grid summarized in the Scorecard, depicting trends and highlights regarding market fundamentals such as power demand developments, relative fuel prices, policy adjustments, new builds/retirements and transportation/leakage issues.
A quarterly spreadsheet offering a summary calendar as well as a more detailed outline of the progress and status of key U.S. federal environmental regulatory efforts potentially impacting the energy sector.
This quarterly report examines the latest U.S. policy developments at the local, state and federal level. The analysis of government responses to environmental concerns regarding air (GHG, criteria, toxic pollutants) and water, underpins PIRA’s fundamental assessments of future prospects for liquids and gas. Highlights include: regulatory actions, legislative initiatives, court rulings, trends in public opinion and scientific studies that influence future production.
In-depth analysis on significant current and anticipated environmental issues and regulations, market conditions, generation and control technology advances and regulatory developments for renewables as well as SO2, NOx, mercury and CO2 regulations — and how they could impact your business.
These one-off reports provide analytic briefs on timely issues confronting North American environmental markets. Developments can be policy-related or they could involve factors such as extreme weather or sudden movements in the fuel markets, which may lead PIRA to update our views.
Clients have access to up-to-date emissions-related data by request, including:
Phone and email access to PIRA’s staff allows clients to obtain quality analytical support on the latest developments in short-term supply and demand or request research on special topics with a quick turnaround. Clients can also arrange for conference calls with our market analysts.
What is the cost of “clean energy”?
Environmental standards and requirements affect the bottom line of nearly every energy player in North America. Increasingly, regulators are using market-based mechanisms such as emissions “budgets/caps” and renewable energy credit (REC) trading to achieve their objectives, putting explicit values on “clean energy.” The availability and pricing of emissions allowances, offsets, credits and RECs directly influence prices of electricity, coal, natural gas, fuel oil, and energy transportation services. Policy concerns regarding climate change are prompting consideration of measures that will reach beyond the scope of current emissions markets with several regional efforts (involving several U.S. states and Canadian provinces) taking the lead in this direction. Current and emerging environmental market policies (e.g. EPA's Utility MACT regulations) are impacting investments in power plants and energy production, directly affecting the operating costs of energy consumers, producers and service providers.
The potential for shifts in energy costs and asset valuations is considerable, given the technology options under consideration and the regional, national, and international environmental regulations and compliance alternatives under consideration. Firms that have in-depth understanding of these markets will have a distinct advantage over their competitors.
PIRA’s North American Environmental Markets Service gives clients both the big picture — for perspective on significant long-term emissions regulatory and market developments — as well as up-to-date, detailed data and analysis needed to make informed near-term decisions. PIRA examines the forces that affect the U.S. acid rain, fine particulate and ozone-related emissions markets (i.e. for NOx and SO2); markets for greenhouse gases (such as RGGI and CA/WCI); and emerging controls for mercury, heavy metals and acid gases. Policies promoting renewable power, including markets for RECs to meet state Renewables Portfolio Standards, have joined the suite of market-based approaches encouraging clean energy and these are also addressed in this context. PIRA's experienced analysis of the details of complex federal, regional, state and provincial regulations can help guide decision-makers and market participants.
Electric Generating Companies and Industrial End-Users. Both groups are the current and obvious future targets of all major air emissions initiatives, while also facing renewable electricity requirements. They face the most pressing decisions regarding compliance strategies and credit portfolio management. To safeguard their competitive positions, they must understand the implications of evolving policies on fuel, operating and investment costs, and the operations and prices of emissions credit markets. The close association between PIRA’s Environmental and Electric Power groups ensures that the products meet these users’ business needs.
Energy Transmission and Storage Companies. Pipelines, railroads, truck and barge companies, ocean freight companies, and electric transmission companies that anticipate short- and medium-term shifts in environmental requirements and compliance costs will have a strategic advantage when setting pricing strategies, valuating existing assets, targeting potential acquisitions and planning expansions.
Coal, Oil and Gas Producers and Refiners. Current and prospective regulations and environmental initiatives/markets can significantly impact prospective national — and especially regional — markets for these fuels. In certain cases, producers will also see direct effects of regulations as well as potential opportunities arising from them. These considerations will be important elements in targeting exploration and production regions and in increasing profitability. As large stationary source emitters, refineries are impacted by the expanding scope of emissions regulations. Moreover, refinery economics will be impacted by emerging greenhouse policies targeting the transportation sector, the refining industry’s most critical market.
Marketers and Traders. Electricity, coal, and gas marketers need to be fully informed about the compliance implications for fuel choice, as well as for credit pricing and management facing their customers, in order to formulate their own near- and long-term strategies.
Environmental Agencies. Such agencies will find an independent analysis of private-sector compliance strategies, progress and costs — as well as the workings of national and local emissions credit markets — invaluable in assessing the impacts of current and prospective regulatory actions.
Financial Institutions. As banks are called upon to provide debt for new energy projects, it will be imperative to analyze accurately both the market and regulatory environments for these new projects. Environmental regulation is becoming more complex and imposing its own set of constraints, costs, and opportunities for investors. Understanding regional markets, growth potential, infrastructure constraints, and implications of environmental regulations will be essential for due diligence.
Equipment Manufacturers and Contractors. Turbine manufacturers, EPC (engineering, procurement, and construction) contractors, environmental equipment makers, and catalyst suppliers can all benefit from a better understanding of current and prospective compliance choices facing their customers. Vehicle manufacturers are on the front lines of emerging greenhouse policies and can benefit from deeper understanding of their future obligations.
Roman Kramarchuk (Managing Director, Emissions and Clean Energy) heads up N.A. EMS and PIRA's Greenhouse Gas Emissions Service. Prior to joining PIRA, he was extensively involved in the development of the CAIR and CAMR Rules and the BART Guidelines with the U.S. EPA’s Clean Air Markets Division. Working at PG&E NEG and with PA Consulting / PHB Hagler Bailly, he evaluated strategies regarding power sector fuel choice, environmental strategy, and advised on plant development/acquisition and asset valuation. Mr. Kramarchuk also spent several years working on USAID- and World Bank-funded projects to develop power markets, market rules and regulatory capacity overseas. He has a MPP from the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard and a BA in economics and BSE in systems engineering from the University of Pennsylvania.
Ronald B. Gold (Senior Director, North American Emissions) is an International Energy Economist with broad experience in analyzing energy, economic, and environmental trends. In addition to his work for PIRA, through 2006, Dr. Gold served as Vice President of the Petroleum Industry Research Foundation, writing extensively on U.S. energy policy issues. Dr. Gold retired from Exxon at the end of 1997, where he was Company Economist and Manager of the Energy Outlook Division for Exxon Company International. Earlier in his career, he worked for the U.S. Treasury Department, Office of Tax Analysis, and was also an assistant professor of economics at Ohio State University. Dr. Gold received his undergraduate degree from Brooklyn College, City University of New York, and his M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from Princeton University.
Jennifer McIsaac (Director, Emissions and Clean Energy) has been analyzing environmental markets and policies at PIRA for over ten years. Her prior experience in the energy industry includes positions at a gas utility and as a researcher at Exxon, where her work focused on emissions in the transportation and power generation sectors. She holds a BA in mathematics from Drew University and an MA in economics at Cornell University.
Glenn Schwartz (Senior Analyst, Emissions and Clean Energy) joined PIRA in 2010 from the legal sector with experience in environmental and administrative/regulatory law in both the public and private sectors, having advised clients in industry, public interest groups and local governments. At PIRA, he tracks and interprets government regulations and legislation that will impact the energy sector as well as emissions and clean energy markets. He received his undergraduate degree in economics from the University of Pennsylvania and holds and a JD from Temple University School of Law.
Jeffrey Berman (Senior Analyst, Emissions and Clean Energy) joined PIRA in 2011, analyzing the market fundamentals of the EU ETS, and Kyoto carbon markets and researching renewable power technologies. Prior to PIRA, he worked as a research assistant and data manager at MDRC, a New York-based public policy research organization. He holds a master’s degree in energy policy and finance from Columbia University and a bachelor’s degree from the London School of Economics.
Allan M. Stewart (Executive Director, Electric) is responsible for the preparation of a comprehensive series of commercially oriented assessments of North American electricity markets as well as data and analysis of the primary drivers of emissions credit prices. Prior to joining PIRA, Mr. Stewart worked with the Consolidated Edison Co. of New York in a variety of senior positions. He received his undergraduate degree in Civil Engineering from the State University of New York at Buffalo and an MBA from Adelphi University.
The North American Environmental Markets Service can be purchased on its own or, at a discount, when added to an existing PIRA retainer service. There is an extra discount when purchased along with its companion product, PIRA's Greenhouse Gas Emissions Service. For options and fees, please contact your PIRA sales representative.