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PIRA’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Service combines a thorough assessment of policymaking drivers with an in-depth understanding of the underlying emissions fundamentals involving fuel choices, technology and economic growth. Through comprehensive reports and a customized Web “portal,” Greenhouse Gas Emissions provides far-reaching geographic scope with special focus and capabilities regarding GHG emissions and markets. Recognizing that there are a number of different GHG regulatory frameworks and individual national and regional priorities, PIRA tracks the likelihood and potential for linkages as well as emerging competing approaches. Understanding the fundamentals of GHG also provides additional insight into markets for the primary fossil fuels (coal, gas and oil), as well as for electricity (prices, incentives for new generation and “clean energy”) and is critically important to energy-intensive industries such as refining, chemicals, cement, iron/steel and pulp/paper.
PIRA’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Service provides critical analysis on:
Clients to Greenhouse Gas Emissions benefit from the following deliverables:
This report provides clients with an up-to-date appraisal of the ETS CO2 markets, including:
In an approach similar to the fundamental analysis used to assess the EU ETS, quarterly assessments of the emerging California CO2 cap-and-trade market analyze the most recent trends in the economy, activity/emissions in the different covered sectors/industries, fuel use, linkage with other markets, offset supply and policy and related fundamental factors. Analysis includes more detailed assessments of the latest regulatory and legal developments impacting implementation. While commenting on current market prices, PIRA provides forecasts of allowance prices, given the expected balances, highlighting market opportunities and risks through the different phases of the program.
While the U.S. has not signed Kyoto and Canada's commitment is uncertain, they are seeing continued domestic and regional developments in regulating GHG. Northeastern U.S. states have taken steps to implement a cap on power sector CO2 emissions through the RGGI program/market, while California's cap-and-trade program is slated to begin in 2013 with the expectation that it will be linked with a similar program in Quebec. On a U.S. federal level, regulatory options for national programs are being developed and discussed with the EPA taking the lead — and the choices made can have serious implications for market players. Stationary-source emissions limits are already in effect through new source permitting requirements, and new emissions performance standards have been proposed. While federal Canadian GHG reduction efforts have been progressing slowly, with programs seeing starts and stops, there has also been significant policy activity on the provincial level. Western Canada's status as a major energy producer places further challenges to emissions-reduction efforts. PIRA is also tracking the development of emissions offsets (and associated market) as a compliance tool — which is critical for the California market and may be necessary to reach national emissions-reduction targets. The North American GHG Quarterly Update reviews the policy processes and offers timely assessments of the latest developments. It also looks at the latest emissions trends across sectors, helping inform, prepare and shape industry responses to potential new markets and regulations.
The GHG Special Reports, focusing on specific relevant greenhouse emissions-related issues, provide more depth on particular longer-term regional policies, trends in the relevant markets, or the development of prospective technologies for GHG reduction.
GHG reduction policies continue to be advanced around the globe, with Australia's carbon program starting out as a tax in summer 2012 and transitioning to a cap-and-trade program by 2015. China is implementing a number of provincial pilot trading programs, promising to develop a national approach by the start of its next Five-Year Plan. Forward momentum on policies is seen with the passage of key GHG legislation in South Korea and Mexico. PIRA assesses the new policies with an eye towards likely balances, carbon prices and implications for the energy sector.
PIRA’s forecasting of worldwide fuel balances provides insight into future emissions relative to projected UN IPCC scenarios as well as national CO2 trends that illustrate expected emissions positions relative to the Kyoto and Copenhagen Accord requirements.
Special focus reports will address and analyze key GHG mitigation and policy issues developing in the U.S. and Canada. Additional reports include coverage of motor vehicle-related GHG analysis, emissions-reduction technologies, and corporate carbon strategies.
These one-off reports provide clients with analytic briefs on important timely issues confronting global emissions. For existing emissions markets, unexpected shifts in the market fundamentals from movements in supply or demand require timely review and understanding to ensure an accurate assessment of emissions markets going forward.
GHG clients have access a special online data portal, providing updated additional data and tools such as:
Worldwide long-term CO2 projections, with by-region and by-country detail.
Kyoto participant emissions projections, with estimates of reduction shortfalls.
For the European ETS:
Updates of country- and power sector emissions forecasts
Implied CO2 prices for fuel switching (using various generating capacity)
U.S. quarterly power sector CO2 data.
CO2 “emissions calculators” for coal, gas and oil generation technologies
Price histories and forecasts — delivered through PIRA’s integrated Energy Price Portal — for:
Worldwide CDD/CDD weather (monthly)
One-on-one interaction between our clients and our analysts is a cornerstone of PIRA’s Retainer Services. In that tradition, Greenhouse Gas Emissions Service clients benefit from direct access (phone/email) to the Group, allowing them to discuss issues that are of specific relevance to them.
What is a ton of CO2 worth? The answer to that question is in a continuous process of being decided — by policymakers with widely diverging opinions, by markets already functioning to equilibrate supply and demand of emissions allowances, and by the energy industry that must respond to the challenge of a lower-carbon future.
Governments concerned about global warming are pushing forward agendas to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the large majority of which is CO2 resulting from the combustion of fossil fuels. Countries committed to the limits imposed by the Kyoto Protocol are taking actions to limit their own emissions while driving GHG reduction investment in the developing world through project-based reduction mechanisms. Follow-on country-level commitments stemming from the Copenhagen Accords, from both the developed world and developing countries, are prompting important initiatives to limit GHG emissions and ongoing debates about the appropriate course of action in countries such as China, South Korea, Brazil and Mexico.
Building on the success of the U.S. SO2 Title IV Emissions Trading Program, policymakers regularly turn to market mechanisms to ensure that emissions reductions are achieved at the lowest possible cost. In the end, such markets differ from more traditional markets in that the product — namely, the right to emit GHG — has a value entirely linked to governments’ decisions on desired reductions. Policymakers choose what types of reductions are desired (if any), how these would be incentivized (command-and-control regulation, renewable energy efforts, targeted subsidies, cap-and-trade programs, etc.) and when they would be required. Once implemented, these policy decisions provide the rules of the game and the structure needed for the relevant markets to operate and the relevant sectors to appropriately respond.
It is with this background that PIRA launched its GHG service.
GHG markets have the potential to link all sectors and industries that are dependent on, or impacted by, energy from fossil fuels. In the short term, efforts to reduce CO2 emissions will rely on fuel switching and improved efficiencies, but in the longer term, investments in new technologies would be needed to drive reductions without compromising economic growth. On an ongoing basis, PIRA’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Service provides the critical market intelligence that can be relied on by professionals in the following areas of business:
Roman Kramarchuk (Managing Director, Emissions and Clean Energy) heads up PIRA's Greenhouse Gas Emissions Service as well as the North American Environmental Markets Service. Prior to joining PIRA, he was extensively involved in the development of the CAIR and CAMR Rules with the U.S. EPA’s Clean Air Markets Division. Working at PG&E NEG and with PA Consulting / PHB Hagler Bailly, he evaluated strategies regarding power sector fuel choice, environmental strategy and advised on plant development/acquisition and asset valuation. Mr. Kramarchuk also spent several years working on USAID- and World Bank-funded projects to develop power markets, market rules and regulatory capacity overseas. He has a MPP from the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard and a BA in economics and BSE in systems engineering from the University of Pennsylvania.
Ronald B. Gold (Senior Director, Emissions and Clean Energy) has a broad experience in analyzing energy, economic, and environmental trends. In addition to his work for PIRA, through 2006 Dr. Gold served as Vice President of the Petroleum Industry Research Foundation, writing extensively on U.S. energy policy issues. Dr. Gold retired from Exxon at the end of 1997, where he was Company Economist and Manager of the Energy Outlook Division for Exxon Company International. Earlier in his career, he worked for the U.S. Treasury Department, Office of Tax Analysis, and was also an assistant professor of economics at Ohio State University. Dr. Gold received his undergraduate degree from Brooklyn College, City University of New York, and his M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from Princeton University.
Jennifer McIsaac (Associate Director, Emissions and Clean Energy) has been analyzing environmental markets and policies at PIRA for over ten years. Her prior experience in the energy industry includes positions at a gas utility and as a researcher at Exxon, where her work focused on emissions in the transportation and power generation sectors. She holds a BA in mathematics from Drew University and an MA in economics from Cornell University.
Glenn Schwartz (Senior Analyst, Emissions and Clean Energy) joined PIRA in 2010 from the legal sector with experience in environmental and administrative/regulatory law in both the public and private sectors, having advised clients in industry, public interest groups and local governments. At PIRA, he tracks and interprets government regulations and legislation that impact the energy sector and emissions/ clean energy markets – with particular focus on the legal challenges to regulations that typically emerge as critical threats to implementation. He received his undergraduate degree in economics from the University of Pennsylvania and holds and a JD from Temple University School of Law.
Jeffrey Berman (Analyst, Emissions and Clean Energy) joined PIRA in 2011, analyzing the market fundamentals of the EU ETS, Kyoto carbon markets and researching the penetration of renewable power technologies. Prior to PIRA, he worked as a research assistant and data manager at MDRC, a New York-based public policy research organization. He holds a Master’s degree in energy policy and finance from Columbia University and a Bachelor’s degree from the London School of Economics.
Bruno Brunetti (Sr. Director, European Electricity) manages PIRA's European Electricity Service. Prior to joining PIRA in 2001, he was at Caminus, where he carried out market studies, providing advice to a significant number of new projects as well as working on acquisition and divestment of assets across Europe. He began his career in the strategic planning department of Enel in Rome. Bruno graduated magna cum laude in economics and management from Bari University (Italy) and obtained a masters degree in energy economics from the ENSPM, the School of the French Institute of Petroleum (Paris).
Dan Klein (Sr. Director, International Coal) oversees PIRA’s International Coal Service, responsible for the International Thermal Coal Market Forecast and International Coal Markets Scorecard, and he contributes to the U.S. Coal Market Forecast. Prior, Dan was a member of PIRA’s North American Electricity team. He has a BA in economics from Calvin College.
Michelle Patron (Sr. Director, Political Risk) oversees the PIRA's global political risk analysis, a key contributor to the GHG service and the Global Oil Retainer Service. She has over a decade of experience analyzing international energy issues. Prior to joining PIRA in 2004, she was a Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and conducted energy research at Deutsche Bank. She spent five years as an international policy advisor at the U.S. DOE. In 2001, Michelle served as Energy Attaché at the U.S. Embassy in Beijing. Prior to the DOE, she worked at the International Energy Agency, the White House, UNICEF and the Center for International Environmental Law. Ms. Patron holds a BA from Columbia University and an MA from Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.
The Greenhouse Gas Emissions Service can be purchased on its own or, at a discount, when added to an existing PIRA retainer service. There is an extra discount when purchased along with its companion product, PIRA's North American Environmental Markets Service. For options and fees, please contact your PIRA sales representative.