Greenhouse Gas Emissions Service

About the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Service

PIRA’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Service combines a thorough assessment of policymaking drivers with an in-depth understanding of the underlying emissions fundamentals involving fuel choices, technology and economic growth.  Through comprehensive reports and a customized Web “portal,” Greenhouse Gas Emissions provides far-reaching geographic scope with special focus and capabilities regarding GHG emissions and markets. Recognizing that there are a number of different GHG regulatory frameworks and individual national and regional priorities, PIRA tracks the likelihood and potential for linkages as well as emerging competing approaches. Understanding the fundamentals of GHG also provides additional insight into markets for the primary fossil fuels (coal, gas and oil), as well as for electricity (prices, incentives for new generation and “clean energy”) and is critically important to energy-intensive industries such as refining, chemicals, cement, iron/steel and pulp/paper.

Key Service Features

PIRA’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Service provides critical analysis on:

  • European Emissions Trading System (ETS) CO2 market, with updates and outlooks on supply/demand balances and allowance prices, leveraging PIRA’s regular coverage of European electricity, coal, gas, and oil markets.
  • North American GHG policy developments, including:
    • Prospects and implications of U.S. federal regulation and legislation
    • Implementation of regional markets (California, WCI, RGGI etc.)
  • International Climate Negotiations and Obligations, by following:
    • Ongoing COP/MOP meeting and related discussions
    • Compliance with the Kyoto Protocol and the Copenhagen Accord targets
    • Developments with project-based GHG markets (CDM, JI)
    • Country-specific compliance issues
    • Development of new markets/policies in major markets globally

What Do Greenhouse Gas Emissions Clients Receive

Clients to Greenhouse Gas Emissions benefit from the following deliverables:

Monthly European Emissions Trading System Market Outlook

This report provides clients with an up-to-date appraisal of the ETS CO2 markets, including:

  • Summary and Scorecard - A summary of the monthly report and a quick-reference scorecard.
  • Monthly Developments - An updated supply/demand balance for ETS emissions allowances that assesses:
    • Power Sector Emissions - Leveraging its analysis of European electricity markets, PIRA focuses on power sector emissions from coal, natural gas and oil.  The section includes analysis of overall demand, weather effects, inter-fuel substitution and renewable generation.
    • Industrial Emissions - A review of trends in emissions from other sectors covered by the European ETS — refining, cement, iron/steel, aviation, pulp/paper and others — within the context of overall macroeconomic and industrial developments.
    • CDM/JI Prospects - A more detailed assessment of the potential supply of emissions credits from CDM/JI projects for ETS compliance.
  • Allowance Price Outlook - While commenting on current market prices, PIRA provides forecasts of allowance prices, given the expected balances and integrated PIRA forecasts of coal, gas, and oil prices.  Market opportunities and risks through the different phases of the program are highlighted.
  • Institutional and Policy Developments - Identification of key trends in the institutional capacity and growth of this new and growing market.  PIRA provides assessments of policy developments as they impact the Phase II and Phase III markets.

Monthly California Emissions Trading System Market Outlook

In an approach similar to the fundamental analysis used to assess the EU ETS, quarterly assessments of the emerging California CO2 cap-and-trade market analyze the most recent trends in the economy, activity/emissions in the different covered sectors/industries, fuel use, linkage with other markets (such as Quebec's cap and trade), offset supply and policy and related fundamental factors.  Analysis includes more detailed assessments of the latest regulatory and legal developments impacting implementation.  While commenting on current market prices, PIRA provides forecasts of allowance prices, given the expected balances, highlighting market opportunities and risks through the different phases of the program.

U.S. RGGI Scorecard

Released in the intervening months between the North American GHG Quarterly Updates, this report summarizes and assesses market influences affecting the nation’s first CO2 cap-and-trade system — the Northeast State Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI).  Charts and graphs regularly accompany the accessible and understandable grid summarized in the Scorecard, depicting trends and highlights regarding market fundamentals such as power demand developments, relative fuel prices, policy adjustments, new builds/retirements and transportation/leakage issues.

North American GHG Quarterly Update

Committed to aggressive GHG reduction targets by the Copenhagen Accord, both the U.S. and Canada are seeing continued domestic and regional developments in regulating GHG emissions.  On a U.S. federal level, regulatory options for national programs are being developed and discussed with the EPA taking the lead — and the choices made can have serious implications for market players.  Stationary-source emissions limits are already in effect through new source permitting requirements, and new emissions performance standards have been proposed.  While federal Canadian GHG reduction efforts have been progressing slowly, with programs seeing starts and stops, there has also been significant policy activity on the provincial level.  Western Canada's status as a major energy producer places further challenges to emissions-reduction efforts.  The comprehensive North American GHG Quarterly Update reviews the policy processes and offers timely assessments of the latest developments. It also looks at the latest emissions trends across sectors, helping inform, prepare and shape industry responses to potential new markets and regulations.

Greenhouse Gas Special Reports

The GHG Special Reports, focusing on specific relevant greenhouse emissions-related issues, provide more depth on particular longer-term regional policies, trends in the relevant markets, or the development of prospective technologies for GHG reduction.

  • GHG reduction policies continue to be advanced around the globe, with Australia's carbon program starting out as a tax in summer 2012 and transitioning to a cap-and-trade program by 2015.  China is implementing a number of provincial pilot trading programs, promising to develop a national approach by the start of its next Five-Year Plan.  Forward momentum on policies is seen with the passage of key GHG legislation in South Korea and Mexico.  PIRA assesses the new policies with an eye towards likely balances, carbon prices and implications for the energy sector.
  • PIRA’s forecasting of worldwide fuel balances provides insight into future emissions relative to projected UN IPCC scenarios as well as national CO2 trends that illustrate expected emissions positions relative to the Kyoto and Copenhagen Accord requirements.
  • PIRA’s review and insight into ongoing discussions and proposals for GHG regulation after Kyoto can help inform longer-term strategic decision-making.  The Durban agreements, for the first time, extended emissions reduction responsibilities to all countries — and a detailed approach is to be worked out by 2015 for implementation by 2020.  More direct regulation of additional sectors, such as aviation, shipping and transportation, are also reviewed.
  • Special focus reports will address and analyze key GHG mitigation and policy issues developing in the U.S. and Canada.  Additional reports include coverage of motor vehicle-related GHG analysis, emissions-reduction technologies, and corporate carbon strategies.

Greenhouse Gas Bulletins

These one-off reports provide clients with analytic briefs on important timely issues confronting global emissions. For existing emissions markets, unexpected shifts in the market fundamentals from movements in supply or demand require timely review and understanding to ensure an accurate assessment of emissions markets going forward.

Emissions “Portal” on PIRA Online

GHG clients have access a special online data portal, providing updated additional data and tools such as:

  • Worldwide long-term CO2 projections, with by-region and by-country detail.
  • Kyoto participant emissions projections, with estimates of reduction shortfalls.
  • For the European ETS:
    • Updates of country-specific and power sector emissions forecasts
    • Implied CO2 prices for fuel switching (using various generating capacity)
  • U.S. quarterly power sector CO2 data.
  • CO2 “emissions calculators” for coal, gas and oil generation technologies
  • Price histories and forecasts — delivered through PIRA’s integrated Energy Price Portal — for:
    • EUAs (Phase I)
    • EUAs (Phase II, III)
    • California/WCI CO2
    • RGGI CO2
    • U.S. Federal CO2
  • Relevant emissions factors: global warming potential factors for the different greenhouse gases, carbon content of different fuels
  • PIRA’s macroeconomic slide shows covering developments in Europe, North America and Asia
  • Worldwide CDD/HDD weather (monthly)

Access to PIRA Staff

One-on-one interaction between our clients and our analysts is a cornerstone of PIRA’s Retainer Services. In that tradition, Greenhouse Gas Emissions Service clients benefit from direct access (phone/email) to the Group, allowing them to discuss issues that are of specific relevance to them.

More About the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Service

New policies and markets linking fuels and sectors across the globe

What is a ton of CO2 worth? The answer to that question is in a continuous process of being decided — by policymakers with widely diverging opinions, by markets already functioning to equilibrate supply and demand of emissions allowances, and by the energy industry that must respond to the challenge of a lower-carbon future.

Governments concerned about global warming are pushing forward agendas to limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the large majority of which is CO2 resulting from the combustion of fossil fuels.  Countries committed to the limits imposed by the Kyoto Protocol are taking actions to limit their own emissions while driving GHG reduction investment in the developing world through project-based reduction mechanisms.  Follow-on country-level commitments stemming from the Copenhagen Accords, from both the developed world and developing countries, are prompting important initiatives to limit GHG emissions and ongoing debates about the appropriate course of action in countries such as China, South Korea, Brazil and Mexico. 

Building on the success of the U.S. SO2 Title IV Emissions Trading Program, policymakers regularly turn to market mechanisms to ensure that emissions reductions are achieved at the lowest possible cost.  In the end, such markets differ from more traditional markets in that the product — namely, the right to emit GHG — has a value entirely linked to governments’ decisions on desired reductions.  Policymakers choose what types of reductions are desired (if any), how these would be incentivized (command-and-control regulation, renewable energy efforts, targeted subsidies, cap-and-trade programs, etc.) and when they would be required.  Once implemented, these policy decisions provide the rules of the game and the structure needed for the relevant markets to operate and the relevant sectors to appropriately respond.

It is with this background that PIRA launched its GHG service.

Who Can Benefit from the Greenhouse Gas Emissions Service?

GHG markets have the potential to link all sectors and industries that are dependent on, or impacted by, energy from fossil fuels.  In the short term, efforts to reduce CO2 emissions will rely on fuel switching and improved efficiencies, but in the longer term, investments in new technologies would be needed to drive reductions without compromising economic growth.  On an ongoing basis, PIRA’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Service provides the critical market intelligence that can be relied on by professionals in the following areas of business:

  • Currently covered sectors. Most immediately, Greenhouse Gas Emissions can clearly help industries currently covered by existing CO2 programs understand the fundamentals of the underlying market and develop appropriate compliance strategies.  Within the European ETS these industries include:
    • Power generation, refineries, iron and steel, cement/lime/ceramics, aviation and pulp/paper
    • Other sectors utilizing industrial boilers/CHPs for their production processes
  • Other GHG-intensive sectors covered by Kyoto. Greenhouse Gas Emissions can provide insight into how developing policies to comply with Kyoto will affect their industries — including the transportation sector, where growth is driving the largest emissions increases.
  • GHG-intensive industries in North America. Greenhouse Gas Emissions sheds light on the “lessons learned” from the pioneering markets, explaining how regional efforts are shaping up and the prospects for potential national efforts.
  • GHG-intensive industries in the developing countries. Greenhouse Gas Emissions provides estimates of the value of emissions-mitigation efforts in order to assess sellable project-based Kyoto reductions and to develop a longer-term post-Kyoto strategy.
  • Gas, coal, and electricity traders and marketers. Provides critical intelligence and an outlook on CO2 and its impact on power prices and levels of inter-fuel competition.
  • Coal, gas, and oil producers. Greenhouse Gas Emissions monitors longer-term demand-side developments resulting from GHG policy changes across the globe.
  • Banks and other financial institutions. More and more, investors are demanding that companies disclose their potential financial risk from GHG regulation.  Efforts such as the Carbon Disclosure Project are working to catalogue and understand the differing and common approaches for identifying and addressing these risks.  Greenhouse Gas Emissions can help institutions better quantify such risks.  The service also identifies risks and opportunities for investments in “greener” and higher efficiency projects and technologies.

The Greenhouse Gas Emissions Group

Roman Kramarchuk (Managing Director, Emissions and Clean Energy) heads up PIRA's Greenhouse Gas Emissions Service as well as the North American Environmental Markets Service.  Prior to joining PIRA, he was extensively involved in the development of the CAIR and CAMR Rules with the U.S. EPA’s Clean Air Markets Division.  Working at PG&E NEG and with PA Consulting / PHB Hagler Bailly, he evaluated strategies regarding power sector fuel choice, environmental strategy and advised on plant development/acquisition and asset valuation.  Mr. Kramarchuk also spent several years working on USAID- and World Bank-funded projects to develop power markets, market rules and regulatory capacity overseas.  He has a MPP from the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard and a BA in economics and BSE in systems engineering from the University of Pennsylvania.

Ronald B. Gold (Senior Director, Emissions and Clean Energy) has a broad experience in analyzing energy, economic, and environmental trends.  In addition to his work for PIRA, through 2006 Dr. Gold served as Vice President of the Petroleum Industry Research Foundation, writing extensively on U.S. energy policy issues.  Dr. Gold retired from Exxon at the end of 1997, where he was Company Economist and Manager of the Energy Outlook Division for Exxon Company International.  Earlier in his career, he worked for the U.S. Treasury Department, Office of Tax Analysis, and was also an assistant professor of economics at Ohio State University.  Dr. Gold received his undergraduate degree from Brooklyn College, City University of New York, and his M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from Princeton University.

Jennifer McIsaac (Director, Emissions and Clean Energy) has been analyzing environmental markets and policies at PIRA for over ten years.  Her prior experience in the energy industry includes positions at a gas utility and as a researcher at Exxon, where her work focused on emissions in the transportation and power generation sectors.  She holds a BA in mathematics from Drew University and an MA in economics from Cornell University.

Glenn Schwartz (Senior Analyst, Emissions and Clean Energy) joined PIRA in 2010 from the legal sector with experience in environmental and administrative/regulatory law in both the public and private sectors, having advised clients in industry, public interest groups and local governments.  At PIRA, he tracks and interprets government regulations and legislation that impact the energy sector and emissions/ clean energy markets – with particular focus on the legal challenges to regulations that typically emerge as critical threats to implementation.  He received his undergraduate degree in economics from the University of Pennsylvania and holds and a JD from Temple University School of Law.

Jeffrey Berman (Senior Analyst, Emissions and Clean Energy) joined PIRA in 2011, analyzing the market fundamentals of the EU ETS, Kyoto carbon markets and researching the penetration of renewable power technologies.  Prior to PIRA, he worked as a research assistant and data manager at MDRC, a New York-based public policy research organization.  He holds a Master’s degree in energy policy and finance from Columbia University and a Bachelor’s degree from the London School of Economics.  

Bruno Brunetti (Senior Director, European Electricity) manages PIRA's European Electricity Service.  Prior to joining PIRA in 2001, he was at Caminus, where he carried out market studies, providing advice to a significant number of new projects as well as working on acquisition and divestment of assets across Europe. He began his career in the strategic planning department of Enel in Rome. Bruno graduated magna cum laude in economics and management from Bari University (Italy) and obtained a masters degree in energy economics from the ENSPM, the School of the French Institute of Petroleum (Paris).

Dan Klein (Senior Director, International Coal) oversees PIRA’s International Coal Service, responsible for the International Thermal Coal Market Forecast and International Coal Markets Scorecard, and he contributes to the U.S. Coal Market Forecast. Prior, Dan was a member of PIRA’s North American Electricity team. He has a BA in economics from Calvin College.

Fees

The Greenhouse Gas Emissions Service can be purchased on its own or, at a discount, when added to an existing PIRA retainer service. There is an extra discount when purchased along with its companion product, PIRA's North American Environmental Markets Service. For options and fees, please contact your PIRA sales representative.