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Since 1976, PIRA has been the worldwide leader in crude oil and petroleum products research, delivering key intelligence and analysis on the global energy complex. Through a comprehensive set of deliverables, PIRA’s Global Crude Oil & Petroleum Products Retainer Service provides clients with in-depth, and — perhaps most important — independent analysis of worldwide crude and petroleum products markets, including fundamentals data, price forecasting, and insight into market developments and emerging trends. Whether you are selling, buying or trading crude or products, PIRA’s Global Oil Retainer Service offers the most commercially oriented analysis of supply/demand fundamentals and price movements — actual and forecast—across the globe.
Retainer deliverables are provided through online and email access to reports and data, as well as email, phone and seminar access to PIRA consultants and analysts.
Users of PIRA's Global Oil Retainer benefit from:
All content deliverables are available online and some are also delivered (optionally) via email. They include:
This essential report contains PIRA’s short- and medium-term outlook for world crude and petroleum products markets, along with critical intelligence on current market drivers. Price forecasts are provided for WTI and Brent, as well as for petroleum products for USGC and NYH. Highlights include:
Published each Wednesday after the U.S. DOE releases its Weekly Petroleum Status Report, this report covers PIRA’s market perspective and analysis of the most recent U.S. crude oil and petroleum products supply/demand data, including forecasts for the next week. The report is accompanied by statistics on the DOE’s latest stock data.
This monthly report examines the factors affecting shale plays and tight oil productions in the Midcontinent, as well as Canadian crude and WTI prices. Highlights include: Cushing crude supply/demand forecast balance, price outlook for Canadian light and heavy crude prices (including WTS and Mars), and light–heavy spreads.
This monthly report provides an outlook for European crude and products markets, including supply/demand analysis and forecasts for Northwest Europe and Mediterranean crude and products prices.
This monthly report provides an outlook for Asian crude and products markets, including supply/demand analysis and forecasts for Dubai and Tapis crudes and Singapore products.
Issued bimonthly, this report focuses on regional crude and products markets, providing country-level analysis with forecast projections. Highlights include: PIRA’s downstream outlook, LATAM crude supply/ differentials, and refinery requirements.
Emailed every Wednesday, this report features the latest information on major (gasoil/jet/kero/gasoline) product demand and stock draws, crude runs/forecasts for the next week. Users have online access to charts and data tables included with the analysis.
Brief, timely assessments and market commentaries that cover topics that are relevant for the near term and can influence trading strategy. Such items may include reports on commercial developments, political events, supply disruptions or recent micro-/macroeconomic trends.
These two reports monitor key variables pertaining to Indian and Chinese oil demand. Highlights include: major economic statistics, supply/demand data, and key demand drivers such as vehicle sales.
This slide show assesses progress in Iraq's oil production and infrastructure expansions. Highlights include: summary of recent political and security developments, PIRA's latest production forecast with current estimated production at IOC contracted fields, and updates on capacity expansions as well as export facilities and refineries.
This monthly slide show tracks the latest global demand for light and heavy products. It covers historical data back to 2001, as well as demand for specific products, including total demand for all major products compared to the demand for light and heavy petroleum products.
This quarterly slide show monitors crude oil runs and refinery product yields for 38 countries. Highlights include: year-on-year changes in crude runs and refinery yields, product output divided by crude runs for gasoline, naphtha, kerosene-jet, gasoil/diesel and heavy fuel oil. Detailed summary charts and data tables are included.
Published twice a year (late summer and at year-end), this confidential survey of the U.S. refining industry’s turnaround plans are presented by PADD.
Published on Fridays, the report — along with a supporting Excel data file — contains weekly historical rig count data by type, play and basin since January 2010.
This quarterly report examines the latest U.S. policy developments at the local, state and federal level. The analysis underpins PIRA’s fundamental assessments of future prospects for liquids and gas from fracking, which are critical to both short- and longer-term balances for North American gas and, to an increasing extent, North American and global oil. Highlights include: regulatory actions, legislative initiatives, court rulings, trends in public opinion and scientific studies that influence future production.
These short, timely reports, delivered on an “as events dictate” basis, cover topics of immediate importance relating to breaking oil market developments and input from OPEC meetings (often attended by PIRA consultants) — along with how these affect PIRA’s market outlook.
These periodic reports deliver more in-depth analytical views of ongoing developments and medium-term trends in the global oil market. Highlights include: regular economic recaps, an annual North Sea production forecast and coverage of political events that may affect the oil market.
Sent “as events dictate,” risk alerts are insightful assessments of regional or global political events with the potential to alter short- and long-term market prices or trends.
This one-page scorecard tracks political developments in major oil producing and consuming countries, while assessing price impact (bullish, neutral, bearish).
These periodic reports identify emerging trends such as overseas investment patterns, royalty regime changes, and U.S. Congressional policy direction. Highlights include: in-depth analysis of emerging political and regulatory trends and outlook for supply/demand and global investment climate.
The annual GPR Stability Index report measures economic, political and social risks in 35 key countries.
PIRA Online is the gateway to timely and convenient access to all of PIRA’s latest reports (and archives thereof), databases, and interactive “portals.” PIRA Online highlights include: the Energy Price Portal and PIRA’s Equation Manager, which allows clients to interact with PIRA’s price data sets; the latest retainer reports (and an archive thereof); data for production, stocks, exports, imports, demand, refinery margins/turnarounds, and light product balances; as well as historic data and updates on NYMEX activity.
The Energy Price Portal
A key feature of PIRA Online, the Energy Price Portal allows users quick and easy access to PIRA’s latest price forecasts for 30 worldwide crudes and 90 worldwide petroleum product prices — including the ability to create and store custom price spreads.
The Energy Price Portal also features PIRA's Equation Manager, a specially designed utility that allows users to define, analyze and store up to 100 custom price spreads in the form of multi-variable equations using PIRA’s forecast prices.
With the Equation Manager, for example, refiners can store individual configurations and use PIRA’s forecasts to project refinery margins, with automatic updates; producers can store individual crude value equations tied to regional markers; and traders can use these spread relationships as a predictive tool in forecasting price developments. Further, all users can add their own transportation components to assess product sales netbacks from all major regional markets.
We also provide the ability to create and export large data sets in Excel, CSV, and PDF formats-- as well as have click-of-the-mouse charting capabilities. The Portal’s forecast horizons include both short-term (monthly averages to December 2013) and long-term (annual averages to 2030).
Other energy-related reports and data available on PIRA Online include:
DOE Weekly Data Portal — provides historical and current data sets conveniently bundled into reports, tables and charts for immediate access and ready reference. The portal is divided into five sections: Crude and Product Balances, Six-Year Comparison Reports, Standard Reports, Weekly Charts and Data Query Analyzer.
Macroeconomic Data — regularly updated data on the U.S. economy (in total and by region) as well as Canadian, Mexican, European, Japanese and world economies. Highlights include: currencies, manufacturing and transportation — land, air, sea, rail.
Global Equity Market Performance — updated weekly, this report tracks the performance of equity markets in countries and regions around the world.
Financial Stress Monitor — a weekly report on events occurring in the financial markets along with charts that cover key stock market equity indices, interest rates and credit spreads. Highlights include: U.S. dollar exchange rates, commodity prices, commercial paper issuance, loan issuance by commercial banks and credit developments by the Federal Reserve.
Miscellaneous Oil Data and Charts — statistics on U.S. (regional) and world petroleum markets, including supply/demand balances, stocks and refining data.
Refining Margins Charting Tool — using major marker crude oil grades and refined product prices, PIRA calculates regional refining margins using proprietary equations that deliver a clearer understanding of the profitability of a generic refinery in a given location. This tool covers major global refining centers (U.S., Europe, Asia).
Slideshow presenting latest available air traffic data for the total system and international air travel for the U.S. and Europe.
Weekly Currency Comparison Charts — comprises four charts: two that show the relationship of five key currencies versus the dollar, and two that demonstrate the "real oil buying power of foreign currencies." These latter two charts indicate the degree to which currency exchange rate movements affect the cost of oil and, thus, oil demand.
Storm Watch — an illustration of the latest storm-tracking information from the National Hurricane Center for storms threatening production facilities in the Gulf of Mexico.
Weather-impact maps — illustrates wind and ice conditions in the Baltic and Black seas.
Temperature maps — covering U.S., Europe, the former Soviet Union and East Asia.
PIRA’s Annual Retainer Client Seminar — The annual client seminar, held every October in New York City, presents PIRA’s medium- and long-term view of oil, gas, coal and electricity markets, which includes a half day plenary and 1 ½ days of more than 25 breakout workshops on all major energy commodity markets. Excel spreadsheets of world energy forecasts by region and energy sources through 2030 are included. All presentations from PIRA’s seminar (audio and visual) are also available to our clients via PIRA Online.
European Retainer Client Seminar — Held every spring in London, this event is specifically organized for PIRA clients with headquarters in Europe, the Middle East and Asia-Pacific. It addresses global oil (with a focus on the non-North American regions) — as well as European natural gas and electricity markets.
Canadian Retainer Client Seminar — Held every May in Calgary, this event is specifically organized for PIRA clients with offices in Canada, and addresses oil, natural gas and electricity markets, with a focus on the North American region.
PIRA’s senior oil consultants are available to deliver a one-on-one presentation (via WebEx or on-site) to a client covering PIRA’s latest oil market view. It is also an opportunity to address an individual client’s specific issues/concerns/questions by assessing how the markets will impact their business, including special interest topics as requested.
Clients can obtain timely analytical support and additional oil market information, via email and telephone, and discuss our latest insight on short-term oil markets with PIRA analysts. Periodic conference calls with oil experts are also included.
Clients receive deep discounts when adding other retainer services (e.g. N.A. Natural Gas, N.A. Electric Power, European Natural Gas, European Electricity and Scenario Planning Service) or when purchasing a PIRA multi-client study.
Dr. Gary N. Ross (Chief Executive Officer of PIRA & Managing Director of the Global Oil Group) has guided PIRA’s growth since its founding while also serving as the Managing Director of the Oil Group, where he is responsible for short- and long-term oil market forecasts. Dr. Ross is a frequent speaker at industry seminars and conferences in the U.S. and abroad, covering a broad range of energy topics, and is a regular commentator on CNBC, CNN, and PBS. Dr. Ross has a PhD in economics from the City University of New York.
Dr. Mark A. Schwartz (President of PIRA & Managing Director of the Scenario Planning Group) oversees PIRA’s Scenario Planning Service (SPS). Dr. Schwartz was formerly Chief Economist of ExxonMobil Corporation, where he was responsible for developing the company’s long-range economic and energy outlook. Dr. Schwartz designed and managed the implementation of the energy modeling system and database that allowed ExxonMobil to develop its base-case global energy outlook, as well as alternative cases to capture the impact of changes in price, economic growth, environmental policy and other critical assumptions. He holds a PhD in economics from the University of Pennsylvania.
David A. Zinamon (Managing Director) specializes in refinery operations and products, NGLs, alternative fuels, biofuels and environmental matters, particularly as they affect petroleum product markets. Among other activities he is responsible for PIRA’s Global NGL Markets Service and the World Refinery Database, contributes to the weekly DOE reports and monitors refinery turnaround plans. Before joining PIRA in 1984 he held positions with Chem Systems, Celanese Chemical, GAF, and Airco. Dave has a BE (ChE) from CCNY and an MBA from Rutgers.
Richard Joswick (Managing Director) develops PIRA’s outlook for crude and products pricing, refinery margins and inter-regional supply balances. He authors PIRA's monthly European Oil Market Forecast and participates in special projects and multi-client studies, including the recently completed Bottom of the Barrel: An Updated Outlook for Residual Fuel Oil. He joined PIRA in 2004 after a 20-year stint with ExxonMobil in supply logistics, planning, refining, and research. Rick has MS and BS degrees from Rutgers University in chemical engineering.
Frederick W.A. (Bill) Fuller (Senior Director) had over 30 years of energy forecasting and analytical experience with Exxon before joining PIRA in 1997. He now oversees PIRA’s analysis and forecasting of near-term industry oil balances, with particular emphasis on international supplies. He also develops PIRA's long-term outlook and monitors events impacting PIRA’s oil market view. Bill has a B.S. in chemical engineering from Cornell.
Michelle Patron (Senior Director) oversees PIRA’s political risk analysis and is responsible for forecasts of OPEC production. Prior to PIRA, she was a Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and spent five years at the U.S. DOE. In 2001, she served as Energy Attaché at the U.S. Embassy in Beijing. She also worked at the IEA, the White House, UNICEF and the Center for International Environmental Law. Michelle holds a B.A. from Columbia and an M.A. from Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.
Peter Jaquette (Senior Director) oversees PIRA’s World Energy Demand Model and is a key contributor to the Scenario Planning Service. Peter joined PIRA in 2007 with more than 25 years of experience in corporate strategic planning and economic consulting, including 14 years with ARCO and nine years with Weyerhaeuser, where he was involved in evaluating cellulosic ethanol and other energy projects. Peter has a B.A. in economics from Swarthmore College and an M.A. in economics from Stanford.
PIRA's Global Crude Oil & Petroleum Products Retainer Service can be purchased on its own. Clients of other PIRA retainers — e.g. North American Natural Gas — may subscribe to the Global Oil retainer under discounted terms, which are determined by the scope of their current license to those other services. For prices and licensing options, please contact your PIRA account executive.