Global LNG Retainer Service

About the Global LNG Retainer Service

PIRA’s Global LNG Retainer service offers unmatched analytical coverage of what drives LNG markets. Forecasting supply, demand, inventory, and price is just part of a comprehensive, yet concise look at broad trends in the market. Written reports, constant interaction with clients, and a huge volume of underlying data together create a solid base for understanding the future direction of LNG markets.

Global LNG applies rigorous fundamentals analysis to worldwide LNG markets, integrating extensive work done through our retainer services in oil, coal, power, and gas. This cross-commodity approach integrates gas and LNG specifically into a broader context of primary energy demand. Global LNG treats this emerging commodity as a just one piece of a broader market, where prices and inter-fuel competition matter from month to month and year to year and where economics dictate where the incremental cargo goes.

The service covers both the traditional — and financially essential — contract flows of LNG as well as market-responsive spot trade. In the LNG market, we see increasing use of flexible delivery in term contracts, as well as frequent spot shipments supplementing the traditional fixed trade routes. PIRA’s highly regarded research of world energy fundamentals is the foundation of our LNG analysis. In particular, PIRA's understanding of demand-side issues is crucial: We go well beyond LNG cargo counting and give the client a broader understanding of how gas will be consumed by sector and at what price.

PIRA fills the analytical gap in understanding these dynamic relationships. By looking at the fundamentals of energy markets in the Far East, Europe and U.S., PIRA identifies marketing opportunities for LNG suppliers and enables end-users to diversify supplies beyond traditional (i.e. pipeline) gas sources.

Key Features of the Global LNG Service

Explaining the impact of North American shale gas, the Japanese nuclear disaster, and the promise of new supply basins in East Africa and Australia only touches the surface of what PIRA offers clients. PIRA distills and aggregates vast amounts of market-driven data into a concise and highly accessible series of deliverables to Global LNG clients, which include:

  • Global LNG Fundamentals Scorecard. A weekly write-up that provides short-term analysis of fundamental changes in the LNG market.
  • Global LNG Monthly Report. The service's flagship report, it consists of a summary/highlights page, insights on the latest fundamentals data, and a featured report section.
  • The LNG Spot Price Calculator. An interactive tool that provides an indicative and lowest competitive price for markets where indigenous/transparent gas prices do not exist.
  • Global Gas Database.  Captures long-term demand, supply, pipeline shipments and LNG imports and exports at a country and regional level, providing a comprehensive and balanced global picture of natural gas.
  • The Energy Price Portal. A key online feature of the Global LNG Service, it allows quick access to short- and long-term natural gas price forecasts, all retrieved at the individual user's discretion.

What Do Global LNG Clients Receive

Global LNG Fundamentals Scorecard

The weekly write-up provides short-term analysis of fundamental changes in the LNG market. PIRA takes the latest data on supply, demand, and inventory from around the world and offers clients insight into how these developments will affect prices in the near term. The scorecard helps clients build up a short-term story in between releases of PIRA's Global LNG Monthly, which complements the weekly scorecard by providing a 6- to 18-month view of where markets are heading.

Global LNG Monthly Report

Consists of a summary/highlights page, fundamentals, and a featured report section:

  • Fundamentals – describes developments in the supply, demand and transportation of LNG around the world. Market areas in the Far East, Europe and North America are discussed in the context of how LNG will affect, or will be affected by, changes at the regional level. Supply developments are covered in the Pacific Rim, Middle East, Mediterranean and Atlantic basins. Shipping developments are covered in this section as well. Prices for gas and oil are discussed, as well as opportunities for spot market trading of LNG through existing trade routes or through arbitrage. The bulk of PIRA’s view of the short-term LNG market (next 12 months) is presented in this section.
  • Supplementing the monthly report is a series of numerical tables in Excel format – displays PIRA’s forecast for gas prices around the world and netback calculations forecast through end-year. These tables provide the statistical underpinning for the written report and show the most up-to-date, market-sensitive data, which are also available in the online database.

Global LNG Special Features

In addition to the regular monthly Global LNG Monthly report and wealth of statistical data, the LNG service provides frequent in-depth analysis of a particular aspect of the global gas market. Clients benefit from long-term forecasts combined with short-term insights, which integrate macroeconomic analysis with energy market fundamentals.

PIRA Online

An LNG-specific database provides encyclopedic information on existing LNG contracts, liquefaction facilities, import terminals, and tankers. The service also tracks daily sendout at U.S. and key European terminals. Along with delivering comprehensive data, PIRA forecasts near-term supply/demand balances as well as shows how the balances will evolve over a longer time-frame. Information is updated on a regular basis and includes long-term gas price projections for North America, Europe, and Asia.

The data includes tables that aggregate more detailed information on the basis of company, country, and region. These tables include:

  • Deal-by-Deal Contracts between 1990 and 2025.
  • Spot Transactions: Point-to-point transactions from 1996 to the present.
  • Long-Term Prices: PIRA's long-term annual price forecasts through 2025.
  • Short-Term Netbacks: Quarterly netbacks forecast 9-12 months forward.
  • Imports: Historic and projected imports from 1970 through 2025, including monthly and daily imports by destination and, in some cases, by source.
  • Exports: History and projected exports from 1970 through 2025.
  • Liquefaction: Historical annual data and forecast additions through 2025, by country, by company and by equity share. Includes liquids production.
  • Regasification: Comprehensive list of existing and proposed regasification capacity by country. Includes send-out, storage capacity, expansions through 2025, with monthly status updates.
  • Tanker Fleet: Detailed information on the existing global LNG tanker fleet, by country, by trade route, by company and by equity share. Includes the current order book and options list.
  • Shipping Distances: Matrix of over 1,000 distances on existing and future LNG routes.
  • Gas Quality and Conversion Factors.
  • LNG Assets by Equity: Breakdown shows which companies own and operate liquefaction and regasification facilities and ships.
  • HDD-CDD Weather: Comprehensive spreadsheet by major states or provinces within North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific and South Africa.
  • Historical Prices: cargo-by-cargo prices for U.S. markets and historical average monthly prices for Japan, Korea, and Taiwan broken out by country of origin.
  • Weather-impact maps for Baltic and Black seas.
  • Temperature maps for U.S., Europe, the former Soviet Union, and East Asia.

The LNG Spot Price Calculator

PIRA has recently enhanced the Global LNG Service with the launch of the newly improved LNG Spot Price Calculator. The Calculator, accessed from PIRA Online, is an interactive tool that provides an indicative and lowest competitive price for markets where indigenous/transparent gas prices do not exist and where other benchmark prices are commonly — but inadequately — used as references.  With the Calculator, users can:

  • Calculate the breakeven price for any destination in the world relative to Henry Hub or NBP
  • Customize tanker size, charter rates and forward gas prices
  • Choose multiple destinations for purposes of comparison
  • Get a jump on future arbitrage opportunities along the forward curve over the next 1-2 years

Global Gas Database

This dynamic database captures long-term demand, supply, pipeline shipments and LNG imports and exports at a country and regional level, providing a comprehensive and balanced global picture of natural gas. The gas demand outlook uses PIRA’s World Energy Demand Model, which calculates the total energy requirements for each of the four primary energy consuming sectors and determines which fuels are likely to meet those requirements.

The Energy Price Portal

A key online feature of the Global LNG Service is the Energy Price Portal, which allows quick access to short- and long-term natural gas price forecasts, all retrieved at the individual user's discretion.

Users of PIRA’s Energy Price Portal benefit from quick and easy access to PIRA’s latest price forecasts, the ability to create and store custom price spreads using the Price Equation Manager and options to view data in 16 different currencies or in different units. 

The Energy Price Portal also features PIRA's Equation Manager, a specially designed utility that allows users to define, analyze and store up to 100 custom price spreads in the form of multi-variable equations that use PIRA’s forecast prices.

With the Equation Manager, for example, users can store individual configurations and use these spread relationships as a predictive tool in forecasting price developments.

In a matter of seconds, users can create and export large data sets in Excel, CSV, and PDF formats as well as have click-of-the-mouse charting capabilities.  The Portal’s forecast horizons include both short-term (monthly averages to December 2013) and long-term (annual averages to 2025). 

LNG prices contained in the Energy Price Portal are listed below:

Asia (64)

 

 

Asia Weighted Average Contract

CIF Japan LNG {Equat. Gun.}

CIF Korea LNG {Qatar}

Asia Weighted Average Spot

CIF Japan LNG {Indonesia}

CIF Korea LNG {Russia}

CIF China LNG {Abu Dhabi}

CIF Japan LNG {Malaysia}

CIF Korea LNG {Trinidad}

CIF China LNG {Australia}

CIF Japan LNG {Nigeria}

CIF Korea LNG {Yemen}

CIF China LNG {Egypt}

CIF Japan LNG {Oman}

CIF Korea Weighted Avg. Contract

CIF China LNG {Equat. Gun.}

CIF Japan LNG {Qatar}

CIF Korea Weighted Avg. Spot

CIF China LNG {Indonesia}

CIF Japan LNG {Russia}

CIF Taiwan LNG {Abu Dhabi}

CIF China LNG {Malaysia}

CIF Japan LNG {Trinidad}

CIF Taiwan LNG {Australia}

CIF China LNG {Nigeria}

CIF Japan LNG {Yemen}

CIF Taiwan LNG {Egypt}

CIF China LNG {Qatar}

CIF Japan LNG Weighted Avg. Contract

CIF Taiwan LNG {Equat. Gun.}

CIF China LNG {Russia}

CIF Japan LNG Weighted Avg. Spot

CIF Taiwan LNG {Indonesia}

CIF China LNG {Trinidad

CIF Korea LNG {Abu Dhabi}

CIF Taiwan LNG {Malaysia}

CIF China LNG {Yemen}

CIF Korea LNG {Australia}

CIF Taiwan LNG {Nigeria}

CIF China LNG Weighted Avg. Contract

CIF Korea LNG {Brunei}

CIF Taiwan LNG {Norway}

CIF China LNG Weighted Avg. Spot

CIF Korea LNG {Egypt}

CIF Taiwan LNG {Oman}

CIF India LNG Weighted Avg Contract

CIF Korea LNG {Equat. Gun.}

CIF Taiwan LNG {Qatar}

CIF Japan LNG {Abu Dhabi}

CIF Korea LNG {Indonesia}

CIF Taiwan LNG {Russia}

CIF Japan LNG {Alaska}

CIF Korea LNG {Malaysia}

CIF Taiwan LNG {Trinidad}

CIF Japan LNG {Algeria}

CIF Korea LNG {Nigeria}

CIF Taiwan Weighted Avg. Contract

CIF Japan LNG {Australia}

CIF Korea LNG {Norway}

CIF Taiwan Weighted Avg. Spot

CIF Japan LNG {Brunei}

CIF Korea LNG {Oman}

 

CIF Japan LNG {Egypt}

CIF Korea LNG {Peru}

 

 

 

 

Atlantic Basin (3)

 

 

European Contract

 

 

European Spot {NBP}

 

 

North America Spot {Nymex}

 

 

 

Access to PIRA Staff

One-on-one interaction between our clients and our energy analysts is one of the cornerstones of PIRA Energy Group’s services. As such, PIRA also provides access to the LNG Group so clients can discuss particular issues that are relevant to their individual company.

More About the Global LNG Service

Analyzing the Fundamentals of LNG Markets

LNG is evolving into a global, market-driven commodity, linking gas markets around the world much like crude oil did 50 years ago. Once the U.S. begins to export LNG in the years to come, the connection will be even greater. This evolution to a market-based model creates a need for a more short-term, detailed, fundamentals-driven analysis of LNG, which also keeps an eye on the longer-term balances. With each LNG cargo worth millions of dollars in the spot market, energy market participants need an ongoing service like PIRA’s Global LNG more than ever.

The Global LNG Retainer applies rigorous fundamentals analysis to worldwide LNG markets, integrating extensive work done through our retainer services in oil, coal, power, and gas. This cross-commodity approach integrates gas and LNG specifically into a broader context of primary energy demand. Keeping all of these fuels in balance is difficult and time consuming. Global LNG treats this emerging commodity as a just one piece of a broader market, where prices and inter-fuel competition matter from month to month and year to year and where economics dictate where the incremental cargo goes.

We cover both the traditional — and financially essential — contract flows of LNG as well as market-responsive spot trade. In the LNG market, we see increasing use of flexible delivery in term contracts, as well as frequent spot shipments supplementing the traditional fixed trade routes. PIRA’s highly regarded research of world energy fundamentals is the foundation of our LNG analysis. In particular, PIRA's understanding of demand-side issues is crucial: We go well beyond LNG cargo counting and give the client a broader understanding of how gas will be consumed by sector and at what price.

PIRA fills the analytical gap in understanding these dynamic relationships. By looking at the fundamentals of energy markets in the Far East, Europe and U.S., PIRA identifies marketing opportunities for LNG suppliers and enables end-users to diversify supplies beyond traditional (i.e. pipeline) gas sources.

Who Can Benefit from Global LNG?

Historical data, timely analysis of market developments, and price forecasts are critical needs for informed decision-making.  Many types of companies can benefit from a deeper understanding of the global market for LNG and the factors guiding spot trade that change from month to month, including:

  • LNG Buyers. Global LNG helps end-users to make decisions on how, where, and when to secure swing gas supply, improving supply flexibility and diversifying supply sources. Even if you are not a direct buyer of LNG, gas markets such as Henry Hub, Continental Europe, or the Far East will be increasingly impacted by larger and larger swathes of LNG headed to the highest bidder. For a rising number of players, buying or hedging an entire cargo (or a portion of one) is a new tactical option.
  • LNG Sellers. This service helps marketers to capture the highest netbacks and anticipate marketing opportunities before the window opens — and act before it closes.
  • Financial Institutions and Investors. This service provides insight into the profitability of LNG-related infrastructure investments and the potential limits to growth in the gas sector. Global LNG not only provides short-term analysis, it also provides updates on supply/demand balances up to decades ahead, a crucial facet for companies engaged in financing multi-million dollar tankers or billion-dollar terminals. The service also includes a comprehensive breakdown of LNG assets by company to give a better understanding of which companies own and operate liquefaction and regasification facilities and ships, enabling investors to evaluate a company’s exposure to LNG assets now and in the decade to come.
  • Brokers, Traders and Pipelines. Global LNG helps to identify swings in LNG deliveries on the upside and the downside, thus determining the need for pipeline-based alternatives.

The Global LNG Group

Ira Joseph (Executive Director, International Gas) manages PIRA’s European Energy Service, which includes distinct service on European Natural Gas (ENG) and European Electricity (EES).  In 2001, Ira co-authored PIRA Energy's multi-client study on Atlantic Basin LNG markets and recently completed a study on prospects for LNG in the Balkan and Central European gas markets. Ira joined PIRA in 1999 after working at Energy Intelligence Group for over a decade, as Senior Editor of Petroleum Intelligence Weekly and Editor-in-Chief of World Gas Intelligence.  He has authored several books on crude oil marketing and natural gas, including versions of EIG’s International Crude Oil Market Handbook and World Gas Handbook, as well as several articles on natural gas swaps and gas marketing strategy.  Ira holds an M.A. in international economics from Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and a B.A. from the University of Michigan.

Harvey Harmon (Senior Director, North American Natural Gas & Global LNG) has over 25 years experience in the energy industry. Before joining PIRA, he was Director of Natural Gas Import/Export Activities and Senior LNG Policy Advisor at the U.S. DOE.  He joined the Global LNG unit of El Paso in 2001 and was responsible for competitor and market analysis. He has consulted for Shell Gas & Power on LNG issues.  His experience includes numerous regional and national analyses of natural gas demand, pipeline capacity, and transport, with emphasis on competition at various citygates. Mr. Harmon holds a M.S. in ocean engineering from the University of Wisconsin and an M.B.A from the University of Texas.

Madeline Jowdy (Director, International Gas) came to PIRA after working at Energy Intelligence Group (EIG) as the LNG and tankers correspondent for World Gas Intelligence and Natural Gas Week. She has authored several books on crude oil marketing and natural gas, including versions of EIG’s Top 100 Oil Companies and World Gas Handbook, as well as studies on the Atlantic Basin LNG trade and shipping. Madeline holds a degree in economics and international relations from American University. She completed a master’s program in Middle East Studies at Georgetown’s School of Foreign Service.

Mickey Kwong (Director, International Gas) is responsible for analyzing Global LNG market fundamentals including demand, production, and imports and contributes to all of the Group’s reports.  He is the author of PIRA's 2012 multi-client study, "Tilting the Balances: A Comprehensive Look at Energy in China through 2025."  From 1998 to 2006, he was an LNG/natural gas consultant at Poten & Partners, where he advised clients from Asia, Europe and the Americas on pricing, demand, and price risk management.  Mickey has a BBA in Finance from Baruch College.

Dr. Mark Schwartz (President / Managing Director, Scenario Planning Group) was formerly Chief Economist of ExxonMobil where he was responsible for developing the company’s long-range economic and energy outlook. Dr. Schwartz designed and managed the implementation of the energy modeling system and database that allowed ExxonMobil to develop their base-case global energy outlook as well as alternative cases to capture the impact of changes in price, economic growth, environmental policy and other critical assumptions. Prior to this position, Mark spent five years in Exxon’s International Gas Marketing Company, where he developed the Asian gas supply/demand balance and led several multi-company studies of China’s gas pipeline and LNG options. During his 25 years at Exxon he also had assignments in Upstream Planning, Treasurers, and Corporate Planning functions.  He holds a PhD in economics from the University of Pennsylvania.

Fees

The Global LNG Retainer Service can be purchased on its own or, at a discount, as an add-on for clients to PIRA’s Global Oil Retainer, North American Natural Gas Retainer, or European Natural Gas Retainer services. The extent of the discount depends on the client's current package. For options and fees, please contact your PIRA sales representative.