European Electricity Retainer Service

About the European Electricity Retainer Service (EES)

Through a comprehensive set of deliverables, EES provides clients with independent and timely analysis of European electricity markets — including fundamentals data, price forecasting and analysis of market developments. Whether you are producing, selling, buying or trading electricity, the service offers an unsurpassed competitive edge through ongoing analysis of supply/demand fundamentals and price movements — actual and forecast, region by region — in Europe.

EES deliverables are provided via email and PIRA Online, as well as through direct contact with consultants and analysts over email and phone and at seminars. These deliverables include:

  • Analytical Reports:
    • European Electricity Monthly Outlook
    • Merit Orders Report Monthly
    • European Electricity Market Scorecard Weekly
    • European Electricity Demand Forecast Daily
    • European Electricity Markets Special Features
  • Data:
    • Daily demand forecasts for 20 European countries
    • Data load deviation vs. normal vs. previous day forecast
    • Renewable data forecasts covering the large part of the European market
    • Detailed supply/demand data by country and sector
    • Macroeconomic trends impacting European electricity markets
    • Short- and long-term price forecasts for European electricity markets via PIRA’s Energy Price Portal
  • Other:

Key Features of EES

  • Daily and weekly analysis of supply/demand fundamentals
  • Summary report of the 10-days-forward electricity demand forecasts for 20 countries — emailed daily, including weekends
  • Forward (1-12 months) outlook for prices across Western Europe
  • Detailed coverage of the generation mix, from renewables to nuclear, and fossil fuel generation
  • In-depth special reports
  • In-depth coverage of key drivers and issues impacting European electricity markets and prices
  • Analysis of European macroeconomic trends
  • Interaction with PIRA’s electricity consulting staff
  • And coming soon: Summary report of the 10-days-forward renewable energy forecasts for the vast majority of the European market

What Do EES Clients Receive

All retainer service deliverables are available via PIRA Online (inclusive of a robust archive) and/or via email — including daily, weekly and monthly reports, and market data. Client consultation. They are as follows:

European Electricity Monthly Outlook

This staple report is the core of the European Electricity Service, covering supply/demand balances, cross-border trading issues and the outlook for prices across Western Europe going forward (1-12 months). The report is issued at the end of the month, containing main dispatching dynamics all across Europe, stretching from the U.K. to Spain, Italy, Germany and Eastern European markets.

Weekly Electricity Market Scorecard

This weekly dispatch addresses short-term market issues and offers an up-to-date market analysis on key issues impacting electricity prices

European Electricity Markets Special Features

These special features contain in-depth insights into particular aspects of the European electricity markets.  Readers benefit from long-term forecasts combined with short-term insights, which integrate macroeconomic analysis with energy market fundamentals. Special Features have recently included:

  • Gauging Wind Output in Key European Markets
  • Germany Suspends the Nuclear Lifetime Extension Plan
  • Japan Repercussions: Rethinking the Generation Fuel Mix in Europe.
  • Gauging Daily Demand Changes in European Power
  • The Next Wave of Renewables: Incentives, Costs and Implications.

Monthly Merit Orders Report - New Deliverable

This monthly report features a slideshow detailing marginal costs for over 3,300 plants covering 18 countries. The report takes into account the expected retirements and new-builds, outages and technical unavailability, together with environmental costs.

The Merit Orders slideshow is updated monthly, at end-month, and posted on PIRA Online.

European Daily Electricity Demand Forecast and Data Portal

This essential deliverable provides a summary report of the 10-day forecast for 20 countries, sent by email every morning (including weekends), showing an overview of the load deviation versus normal and versus the forecast from the previous day. The goal of this deliverable is to offer a more frequent look at demand drivers affecting movements on the forward price curve. In addition, detailed hourly forecasts by country are also available through the EES Portal.

Energy and Economic Data Available Via PIRA Online

PIRA’s internet-based information service gives EES clients exclusive, timely and convenient access to PIRA’s analysis and price forecasts for European electricity markets. PIRA Online is the easiest way for clients to take advantage of multiple-user, multi-site licenses.  Some of the reports and data available online include:

  • Macroeconomic Survey — PIRA’s "Macro Europe" analysis of trends impacting the European electricity markets.  Key data provided include: industrial production, GDP growth, currency movements, retail sales, car registrations, unemployment, and leading business indicators (German IFO, French Insee).
  • Prices — Price forecasts for base and peak hours are provided on monthly basis for Germany, France and the U.K. for two years out.
  • Coming Soon: Wind/Solar Forecasts — Daily wind forecasts for the for 10-days-forward in Germany, Denmark, France, Netherlands, U.K., Italy and Spain. Soon available will also be the solar forecasts for the upcoming 10 days for Germany, France, Italy and Spain, accounting for the large majority of the European solar capacity.
  • NuclearWatch — Detailed data from official sources on the status of nuclear power generation in France, Germany, Belgium, Spain and the U.K.
  • HydroWatch — Updated information of river inflows, reservoirs levels and hydro generation. For the Rhine River inflows in Rheinfelden, PIRA displays hourly developments and two-day forward forecasts.  Water levels in Ruhrort are also reported, providing a key indicator of coal freight along the Rhine River. Reservoir contents are reported for France, Switzerland, Spain, and Scandinavia.
  • Load/Fuel Balance — Detailed monthly balances by fuel type for major European markets through the end of 2013.
  • Installed Capacity — Dates back to 1996, with PIRA's assumptions forward through 2013. Displays data in a pivot table format by plant type and source.
  • New-Build — PIRA provides the status of the new power plant projects across main countries, with details on the timing to completion, capacities and fuel choice.
  • LCPD — PIRA makes available to clients the full list of units opting out of the LCPD across Europe, with details of the nominal electrical capacities and fuel(s) of choice on a unit-by-unit basis.
  • Scrubbers Database—In addition, for coal and lignite units currently in operation in key Western European markets, PIRA is now offering details for the type of compliance with sulfur limits, or retrofitting method, on a plant by plant basis  

The Energy Price Portal

A key feature of all PIRA retainers, the Energy Price Portal allows users quick and easy access to all of PIRA's latest energy price forecasts (both short- and long-term) for European electricity markets. 

A key feature of the Energy Price Portal is PIRA’s Equation Manager, a specially designed utility that allows users to define, analyze and store up to 100 custom price spreads — across commodities and inclusive of freight — in the form of multi-variable equations that use PIRA’s forecast prices.

With the Equation Manager, users can store individual configurations and use these spread relationships as a predictive tool in forecasting price developments. As the data get updated, so to automatically do the equations.

The Portal also provides the ability to create and export large data sets in Excel, CSV and PDF formats, in addition to click-of-the-mouse charting capabilities.  No more searching through multiple reports to locate prices; no more hand-entering data into your spreadsheets.

The Portal’s forecast horizons include both short-term (monthly averages to December 2013) and long-term (annual averages to 2030).  Electricity prices contained in the Energy Price Portal include Germany, France and the United Kingdom.

Annual Retainer Client Seminar – London

The seminar presents our medium- and long-term (to 2030) outlooks for oil, gas, coal and electricity markets. The setting allows clients close contact with the consultants who prepare the forecasts. All presentations (audio and visual) are also available via PIRA Online. (The number of invitations depends on a client’s retainer package and licensed distribution.)

Phone/Email Access

Clients can obtain timely analytical support and additional market information while discussing our latest insight on short-term European electricity markets with PIRA analysts.

Discounts on PIRA’s Other Retainers and Multi-Client Studies

Clients receive discounts when adding other retainer services (e.g. N.A. Electric Power, European Natural Gas, International Coal) or when purchasing multi-client studies.

Who Can Benefit from the European Electricity Service

PIRA believes that “knowing the numbers” of generation, demand, cross-border trading and price is essential to achieving success and winning in this new and hard-to-predict market.  As such, EES will benefit:

  • Power Traders and Marketers. EES will assist you in understanding essential generation issues (e.g. availability of hydro, renewable energy, fossil fuel and nuclear plants), demand developments, emerging dispatching patterns and their impact on prices.
  • End-Users. Perhaps no other type of client will find EES as valuable as an end-user. As the driving force behind European market liberalization, buyers of gas, power, and oil are now faced with the daunting task of choice. Power generators, industrials, petrochemical firms, and commercial buyers are offered deal after deal, but with these choices come complex commercial decisions: What price can be obtained? Where is the market heading?  EES provides end-users with the numbers and analysis to answer these questions.
  • Gas Traders and Marketers. The relationship between gas and power has grown closer each year, with the spark spread becoming as common a tool of analysis as the refining margin in oil markets. The growing convergence of U.S. and European markets via spot LNG arbitrage also increasingly connects changes in the European electricity market to North American coal, gas and electricity.
  • Coal Market Players. In most European countries, coal is in a constant state of competition with gas as the fuel of choice in the power generation sector. The dark spread is a key indicator of profitability for coal-fired power generation. Changes in the European power markets will have increasingly rapid effect on Atlantic Basin coal prices and trade.
  • Emissions Traders. With the power sector demand for CO2 accounting for a significant portion of the overall EU ETS balances, EES provides critical intelligence to emissions traders in order to understand changing demand for EUAs.

Fees

PIRA's European Electricity Retainer Service can be purchased on its own or together (with a discount) in a package with the European Natural Gas Retainer Service. Clients of other PIRA retainers e.g. North American Electricity — may subscribe to EES under discounted terms. For prices and licensing options, please contact your PIRA account executive.