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Reflecting its tradition of exhaustive data-gathering and high quality analysis and forecasts, PIRA has made a series of recent enhancements to its proprietary world energy demand model, which is a significant part of the foundation of how PIRA develops its price forecasts. Now, the demand data that are derived from this model are available to clients via PIRA online. Users of the World Energy Demand Forecast Portal have access to the most comprehensive database of its type in the world, covering energy demand at its most detailed and “granular” level — some 2 million data points.
The extensive dataset covers annual energy demand by 9 individual sectors, by fuel and product — 10 non-oil fuels and 19 oil products — for 143 countries: coal use in power generation in Japan; ethanol in Canadian transportation; and so on. Besides having every possible data point for the PIRA Reference Case, users who opt for the Portal’s Premium version can test their own assumptions and create customized demand scenarios.
Updated each month, the World Energy Demand Forecast Portal is the result of PIRA’s detailed projections for prices, country-specific GDP and population growth, fuel substitution, technological change and efficiency gains.
The "Bottom Line"
Many important energy trends are not apparent at the macro level; they need to be explored at a detailed (by country, by sector, by fuel) level. It is therefore critical to have a reliable resource that can show the trends — historical and forecast — at this level of detail and that reveals an outlook that takes into account the specific by-sector and by-fuel trends for specific countries. PIRA’s World Energy Demand Forecast Portal is that resource. It is also the most recent example of PIRA’s efforts to make its underlying data directly available to clients.
The Portal is a first-of-its-kind, unrivaled resource that features:
Different subscription levels
The portal is a first-of-its-kind, unrivaled resource:
The World Energy Demand Forecast Portal saves you time and money — and can make you money:
The World Energy Demand Forecast Portal is the most efficient way to access and analyze PIRA’s latest Reference Case demand forecast: Just create your query and in seconds your data table appears, ready for you to download to your desktop.
Basic Service — Two Data Set Options
Users to the World Energy Demand Forecast Portal can choose from one of two different data packages. They are:
1. Liquids only, which includes the following:
Jet fuel kerosene
LPG (excl. Ethane)
Refinery gas (still gas)
Residual fuel oil: high sulfur
Natural gas liquids
Residual fuel oil: low sulfur
2. All fuels, which includes the above categories plus:
Lignite and brown
Premium Service: Upgrade Your Portal Access to Run Demand Scenarios
The World Energy Demand Forecast Portal is the most efficient way to access and analyze PIRA’s latest Reference Case forecast: Just create your specific query and in seconds your demand data table appears, ready for you to analyze or download to your desktop. But what if you want to test an alternative outlook or simply don’t want to rely on all of PIRA’s input assumptions? By upgrading to the Premium version of the World Energy Demand Forecast Portal, you can opt to add the Scenario Manager to your Portal access, which will allow you to develop (and store) your own custom demand forecasts.
The Scenario Manager allows you to change inputs and assumptions that reflect your own knowledge and hypotheses — efficiency improvements, elasticities, GDP, fuel mix, sensitivities, exogenous factors, and so on. Any of these — or any combination of these (within reason) — can be altered and tested. After your custom scenario is computed, you can compare the energy demands and emissions in your case with those in PIRA’s Reference Case, at any level of geographic or sectoral detail. All told, this simulation can be performed in 5 minutes with the Portal’s Scenario Manager. Without such a tool, the simulation would require a team of analysts many days to produce an internally consistent energy demand simulation with only a minor level of geographic detail.
If you would like to learn about the Scenario Manager and World Energy Demand Forecast Portal - Premium version, please contact PIRA for a demonstration and a custom quote.
The real strength of the Portal's Premium version is how it puts control into the users hands, allowing them to test an alternative outlook or to rely on their own input assumptions. Here’s how you can use it to create your own custom demand forecast:
As an example, let’s investigate the impact of an oil price spike in 2015:
At the core of PIRA’s consultation is a bottom-up, exhaustive examination of the fundamentals and energy balances that drive market trends, both near and long term. A critical input, therefore, is a forecast of demand. PIRA’s modeling approach is to forecast energy demand for an individual country at a sectoral level. For an individual country and sector, energy demand is determined by a combination of external demand drivers (including GDP and population growth, and energy prices) and model parameters (including price, income and population elasticities, and rates of efficiency improvement). Once a sector’s total energy demand is determined, that sector’s demand for individual fuels is determined by a set of parameters, including trends in available supply and fuel mix. PIRA’s short-term oil demand forecast is updated once a month, and it is incorporated in an updated PIRA Reference Case on a monthly basis. The outlook for all fuels is updated at least twice a year.
With this rich set of external assumptions and model parameters driving the detailed demand forecast by country, sector and fuel, the Portal provides a unique tool to create an extremely rich and detailed energy demand forecast. Users can not only create their own reference case, reflecting their own assumptions about external demand drivers and characteristics of energy demand behavior, but they can also perform sophisticated sensitivity analysis, examining the impact of such things as external events, government policies, or technology changes on energy demand. In both modes, the Portal allows users to examine the results at an extremely granular level (by fuel, by sector, by country) or to roll up the bottom-up details to larger aggregates to assess overall market impacts.
Note: As with any model, it is possible to make changes to the initial assumptions that produce inconsistent or questionable results. In most cases, inconsistent results highlight a combination of assumptions that may not be internally consistent. For example, if the exogenous growth rate for nuclear power is pushed so high that more electricity is generated than there is demand, the “swing” fuel action of the model will push the demand for one or more fossil fuels in power generation negative. The appearance of negative energy demands (in any sector) generally signals that there is some inconsistency in the model user’s assumptions, which should be modified in some way before finishing the forecast.
The World Energy Demand Forecast Portal incorporates the concept of “swing” fuels. This reflects the fact that some fuel supply may be relatively fixed (e.g. nuclear power) and that any variations in a sector’s energy demand in an individual country will likely be met by a small subset of fuels (typically fossil fuels), where fuel supply is available in variable quantities and there is sufficient energy using capital stock available. For example, while 20% of China’s electricity generation might come from nuclear and hydro, in any given year any additional electricity demand will likely be met by fossil fuels, since available nuclear and hydro capacity is fully utilized under almost any circumstance. In practice, the Portal assigns swing fuel shares to the key end-use sectors for each country. These shares must add up to 100%, but can allocate any proportion of the “swing” demand for energy to any individual fuel. For example, in China variations in demand for power generation are met 80% by coal, 10% by natural gas and 10% by oil.
Conceptually there are two separate ways that the Premium version of the World Energy Demand Forecast Portal can be used to develop energy demand forecasts. In the first way, the user is developing a reference case forecast, where they have developed their own forecast for key model demand drivers and parameters, such as GDP and population growth, energy prices, exogenous energy supply trends, efficiency improvements, etc. Through the Portal's Scenario Manager, users can input these assumptions to the model and use the model to calculate the energy demands that will be driven by these external demand drivers and other assumptions. Note: the Portal always contains the latest PIRA Reference Case demand forecast as well as any user-saved cases. Users should label their reference case to make sure it is identifiable.
In the second way, the user can assess the impact of a change in assumptions on the energy demand outlook, performing a sensitivity analysis. Starting with a reference case (his own or PIRA’s), the user might want to change an assumption about energy prices, for example. The Scenario Manager has an option to enable a set of model sensitivities that change a number of key model assumptions in response to the changes to other model drivers. For example, with this sensitivity module enabled, oil prices significantly higher than the Reference Case will depress GDP growth in oil importing countries, cause light vehicle fleet miles per gallon to increase faster, and increase the penetration of non-oil-fueled vehicles, with all of these impacts being determined by a set of sensitivity parameters.
The energy demand sectors in the World Energy Demand Model are:
At the end-use sector level, electricity demand is specifically displayed as a component of energy demand in the sector. The separate power generation sector displays both the primary energy consumed in electric generation and the electric power produced. When combining all sectors to a country or regional total, the electricity demand in end-use sectors is netted out against the electricity generated (plus net imports), displaying only the primary energy consumption of the country or region.
Most of these regions are self-explanatory, with the following PIRA conventions:
(*Not all users have access to all fuels. Portal options include packages for liquids only or all listed fuels.)
The World Energy Demand Forecast Portal is sold as an annual online subscription (inclusive of data updates and software enhancements). Companies have the option to choose either an oil-only data package or all fuels. Companies may also opt to have access to the Premium version of the Portal. Such access, since it depends on the client’s current retainer package and the amount of consultation desired, must be custom quoted.
Please contact your PIRA account representative, or firstname.lastname@example.org, for more information on the World Energy Demand Forecast Portal (including arranging an online demonstration) and to receive a fee quote.