U.S. Coal Market Forecast

About the U.S. Coal Market Forecast

This service — which features a monthly report by this name plus the U.S. Coal Stockpile Estimates report and accompanying data sets  — provides analysis and data on a wide range of issues affecting supply, demand, balances, and ultimately, prices of coal in various U.S. regions. As a natural complement to both PIRA's regular power grid and emissions market coverage, the U.S. Coal Market Forecast explains the interplay of such factors as production, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide credit trading, weather, transportation, natural gas competition, and the economy. The end result is a comprehensive service that provides the same kind of fundamentals-based analysis and forecasting included in the monthly International Thermal Coal Market Outlook (a key deliverable of PIRA's International Coal Retainer Service).

The report can be purchased on its own. It is also an included deliverable in the International Coal Service and the North American Electricity Retainer Service.

Key Features of the U.S. Coal Market Forecast

In addition to the monthly report's keen analysis, readers also receive data tables that cover:

  • Regional coal production and net exports (by region)
  • Regional coal demand for power and other sectors
  • Power sector coal stocks
  • Coal price forecasts for NYMEX, Illinois Basin and Powder River Basin

The U.S. Coal Stockpile Estimates report assesses electric power sector (EPS) coal inventories by region for the current calendar month. It leverages on one of PIRA’s strengths — our regional power and fuel consumption projections — in order to project a forward-looking days cover (or days burn if you will) estimate for each of 10 specific regions and the U.S. in total. All of the major coal basins are represented across the respective EPS coal stock regions that PIRA models.

Components of the U.S. Coal Market Forecast

The U.S. Coal Market Forecast service includes a monthly report of that name, data tables that accompany the report, and the U.S. Coal Stockpile Estimates report.

In the Market Forecast report you will find:

  • A quick-read summary of recent developments and emerging trends, by coal type: Central Appalachia NYMEX look alike, CSX Rail 1% sulfur, Pitt 8 3.5 lbs, Illinois Basis Barge 5.0 lbs., Southern PRB 8,800 Btu and Southern PRB 8,400 Btu, as well as OTC coal prices.
  • A “Scoreboard” that summarizes the various influences on prices and whether they are bullish or bearish.
  • Detailed analysis and forecast of power sector coal demand.
  • An examination of trends in coal supply and a regional forecast, as well as statistics on rail loadings.
  • Data and analysis on balances and prices, by coal type.
  • Tables of actual and forecast data on:
    • Regional coal production and net exports (by region)
    • U.S. coal production and net exports
    • Regional coal demand for electric power and other sectors
    • Power sector coal inventory levels and prices
    • Coal stocks by rank (bituminous, sub-bituminous and lignite)
    • U.S. physical coal prices
    • U.S. OTC coal prices

The monthly data tables cover:

  • Regional coal production and net exports (by region)
  • Regional coal demand for power and other sectors
  • Power sector coal stocks
  • Coal price forecasts for NYMEX, Illinois Basin and Powder River Basin

The U.S. Coal Stockpile Estimates report is divided into five Excel worksheets of historic actuals and forecasts of:

  • Coal production
  • Net exports
  • Demand by sector
  • Stocks by sector
  • Prices

Contact PIRA for a sample copy of the U.S. Coal Market Forecast.

Fees

The U.S. Coal Market Forecast is an included deliverable of the North American Electric Power and the International Coal retainer services. If you are not a client to either of those services, you can still purchase the U.S. Coal Market Forecast service on its own.