North American Daily Electricity Demand Forecast

About the "Daily Electricity Demand Forecast" Report

The Daily Electricity Demand Forecast is designed for eastern and western U.S. electricity market participants, as well as natural gas and coal traders.  The report, sent to subscribers by email every morning (including weekends) before 7:30 a.m. EST, accurately predicts regional loads in the Eastern and Western Interconnect as well as ERCOT.  The demand projections incorporate the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) seven-day forward model output statistics (MOS) weather forecast for more than 200 weather stations in the United States and Canada.

Key Features of the Daily Demand Report

The seven-day projections of peak-hour, on-peak, off-peak and average daily electricity demand cover nearly 70 power market regions and sub-regions in North America. Demand departures from seasonal norms for the aforementioned load blocks are also provided. Aside from the additional forecast detail, several power market regions have been realigned into the applicable Independent System Operators (ISOs) and Regional Transmission Organizers (RTOs) in the U.S. power market, better approximating the most widely traded regions. All load equations are estimated using an improved statistical model that captures the non-linearity of temperature/load response.

What Is Contained in the "Daily Demand" Report

Each morning, by 7:30 New York time, subscribers receive a report that provides for some 70 power market regions and sub-regions in North America updated seven-day projections of:

  • Average Electricity Demand
  • Peak-Hour Electricity Demand
  • Average Electricity Demand Departures from Seasonal Norms

Who Benefits from the "Daily Electricity Demand Forecast"?

Power Traders/Marketers. The Daily Electricity Demand Forecast helps to identify weather-related swings in electricity demand and is ideal for the trader who recognizes that fundamentals of demand and supply are the foundation to making smart power price and implied heat rate trades. The disaggregation of both regional definitions and load blocks help traders target the highest value trades.

Natural Gas and Coal Traders. The natural gas and coal markets are tightly linked to the power market. This is particularly true in the summer, when gas fundamentals shift from the residential/commercial sector to the electricity generation. The Daily Electricity Demand Forecast quantifies the effect of weather on electricity demand, offering insight into overall natural gas demand in the power market as well as swings in regional demand and the effect on basis.

Fees

"Daily Demand" is available only to companies that are clients to PIRA's North American Electricity Retainer Service. Rates are based on 10 users located at a single client site; clients requiring additional access (more than 10 users and/or more than 1 site) should contact their PIRA account representative for a custom quote.