PIRA's Annual Retainer Client Seminar in New York

This one-of-a-kind gathering reviews PIRA's short- and long-term outlook for world crude oil and petroleum products, natural gas, electric power, and emissions. It also examines the major structural changes expected in various world energy markets. After a morning "plenary" session, the Thursday afternoon "breakout" sessions are broken into two sets of concurrent presentations. Each session lasts just over an hour. On Friday morning, the presentations continue with three breakout sessions of simultaneous presentations.

Future Seminar dates:

  • October 10-11, 2013
  • October 9-10, 2014
  • October 8-9, 2015
  • October 6-7, 2016
NYC Annual Retainer Seminar

Hilton New York Hotel

1335 Avenue of the Americas
(6th Ave. between 53rd and 54th St.)
New York, NY 10019
Tel: 212-586-7000
Special Room Rate Deadline: September 16, 2013

Registration Breakfast: Thursday, October 10, 2013, from 7:30 A.M. to 8:30 A.M.
Seminar: Thursday, October 10, from 8:30 A.M. to 4:50 P.M.
Friday, October 11, from 8:00 A.M. to 12:55 P.M.

Cocktail Reception: Thursday, October 10, 2013, from 5:00 P.M. to 7:00 P.M.

Eligibility

The Annual Retainer Client Seminar is open only to authorized users of retainers for Global Oil, North American Natural Gas, or North American Electric Power. The number of free attendees is determined by the size of the retainer package; additional attendees will be charged a fee. All registrants should clear their attendance with the individual at their company who is responsible for the PIRA retainer.

Deadlines

Registration information for the next Annual Retainer Client Seminar, to be held on Thursday and Friday, October 10-11, 2013, will be sent to clients next spring.

Accommodations

If you wish to stay at the Hilton, please phone for reservations 212-586-7000, and request a room from the "PIRA Energy Group room block," or reserve a room online at the Hilton reservation page for this event: These rooms are limited. Room reservations will not be held past 4 p.m. of date of arrival unless guaranteed in advance by a major credit card. In addition to your hotel reservation, you must notify PIRA’s office of your attendance.

2012 Agenda
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Thursday Afternoon, October 18, 2012
Time Information Speaker
7:30-8:30 a.m.
Registration and Continental Breakfast
(Grand Ballroom Foyer, 3rd Floor)
8:30-9:50 a.m.
Opening Plenary Session: Global Energy Outlook
(Grand Ballroom, 3rd Floor)
World Oil Markets Dr. Gary N. Ross
Political Risks to the Outlook Michelle Patron
Global Refining and Oil Products Richard L. Joswick
9:50-10:10 a.m.
Coffee Break
10:10-11:35 a.m. North American Natural Gas Gregory J. Shuttlesworth
Global Gas Ira B. Joseph
Power, Coal and Environmental Allan M. Stewart
Longer-Term Issues Dr. Mark A. Schwartz
11:35-12:35 a.m.
Cocktails
12:35-1:45 p.m.
Lunch and Panel Discussion:
Ambassador Dennis Ross: Iran, Iraq and Update on the Arab Spring
Breakout Session 1
(2:00-3:15 p.m.)
Oil MarketU.S. Shale Liquids Production: What Sets the Limit?
The prospects for U.S. shale liquids volumes continue to improve. This session will review our most recent base case, address the issue of economics and price sensitivity of volumes, and examine some of the potential infrastructure and transportation constraints.
Dr. Gary N. Ross, Chief Executive Officer
Frederick W.A. (Bill) Fuller, Senior Director, International Oil
Miriam Levy, Senior Analyst, Global Oil
James D. Feaster, Consulting Senior Advisor, North American Oil
Oil MarketGlobal Refined Product Markets and Crude Price Differentials
Analysis of product demand trends, near-term and longer-term refining balances, and how operations will evolve as crude/oil supply changes (e.g., shale crude, biofuels, NGLs). The implications and outlook for product spreads, refining margins, and crude differentials will be addressed.
David A. Zinamon, Managing Director, Refining and NGLs
Richard L. Joswick, Managing Director, Global Oil
Gary Greenstein, Director, Global Oil
Gas MarketNear-Term Gas Balances and Price Outlook
Issues include prospective coal-to-gas substitution and weather-driven scenarios for R/C gas heating, together with the potential shale gas response to 2013 gas prices in crucial Lower 48 plays and the forecast growth of associated gas production. A wrap-up discussion follows of resulting gas balances and related gas price risks.
Samuel S. Phillips, Analyst, Natural Gas
Sheena R. Eaton, Senior Analyst, Natural Gas
Richard M. Redash, Managing Director, Natural Gas
Electricity MarketShort-Term Coal and Power Markets
The outlook for North American power markets through 2013, covering regional load and resource developments and emissions markets (CSAPR), some alternative scenarios, and coal-gas substitution issues. Analysis of North American coal markets, covering coal supply by basin, demand, and trade fundamentals
Allan M. Stewart, Executive Director, Electric
Morris J. Greenberg, Managing Director, Electric Power
Robert (Bob) Roth, Senior Director, North American Coal
Oil MarketGas MarketElectricity MarketTransportation Alternatives to Oil
The latest outlook for conventional oil in transportation and an examination of recent developments regarding the potential for gas and electricity as alternative fuels.
Dr. Mark A. Schwartz, President
Nina J. Fahy, Associate Director, Natural Gas
Kenneth M. Bogden, Director, Freight Markets
Ethan Groveman, Analyst, Global Oil
Breakout Session 2
(3:35-4:50 p.m.)
Oil MarketNear-Term Global Oil Supply Prospects: Is the U.S. the New World Leader?
Leadership in non-OPEC supply has rapidly shifted to North America. At the same time, 2012 was the second year of unusually high non-OPEC supply disruptions. Iran continues to remain a major uncertainty.
Frederick W.A. (Bill) Fuller, Sr. Director, International Oil
Asif Gangat, Analyst, Global Oil
Max Pyziur, Analyst, International Gas
Michelle Patron, Sr. Director, Political Risk
Oil MarketNorth American Refining, Crude Balances, and Product Exports
The session will examine the downstream implications of the growth in North American liquids volumes and the change in quality. The focus will be on refinery crude choice, access to crude, and implications for product output and trade.
Gary Greenstein, Director, Global Oil
Jerry Cunningham, Director, Global Oil
James D. Feaster, Consulting Senior Advisor, North American Oil
Richard L. Joswick, Managing Director, Global Oil
Oil MarketConsequences of the Drought
This session will assess the impact on corn and other grain markets of the 2012 drought. We will examine both direct impacts on corn and other grain balances and pricing as well as the pressures on the ethanol market and the overall U.S. macroeconomic outlook via food inflation and lost output.
Peter J. Meyer, Senior Director, Agricultural Commodities
Dr. Bruce Pickover, Senior Director, Global Biofuels
Alan Struth, Director, Global Oil
Gas MarketGas Demand Opportunities: LNG Exports, Transportation and Industrial
PIRA views North American natural gas supply capable of satisfying unprecedented demand growth. In this context, our analysis will center on long-term gas demand growth prospects in both traditional and non-traditional end-use markets, including LNG exports, gas use in transportation, and likely re-industrialization impacts.
Harvey L. Harmon, Senior Director, Natural Gas and Global LNG
Nina J. Fahy, Associate Director, Natural Gas
Gregory J. Shuttlesworth, Executive Director, Natural Gas
Gas MarketElectricity MarketNew Developments in European Energy
European gas and power markets reflect the moribund state of the European economy, while the strong commitment to renewable energy is undermining the traditional role of all fossil fuels. The gas sector will go from being the source of almost all demand growth to being a marginal fuel for swing use. Meanwhile, spot and contract gas are both priced too high to compete with coal, squeezing some utilities to the point of insolvency.
Ira B. Joseph, Executive Director, International Gas
Bruno Brunetti, Senior Director, European Electricity
Dr. Lin Fan, Senior Analyst, European Energy
Electricity MarketEnvironmental/Emissions Policies Targeting Facilities and Fuels
Federal, Regional and State (CA in particular) policies and regulations drive the costs and competitive position of power plants and industrial facilities — and can also impact energy production. Such efforts, however, will need to overcome legal and political challenges.
Roman Kramarchuk, Managing Director, Emissions and Clean Energy
Jennifer McIsaac, Associate Director, Emissions and Clean Energy
Glenn Schwartz, Senior Analyst, Emissions and Clean Energy
5:00-7:00 p.m.
Cocktail Reception
(Grand Ballroom Foyer, 3rd Floor)


Friday Morning, October 19, 2012
Time Information Speaker
8:00-8:30 a.m.
Continental Breakfast
Breakout Session 3

(8:30-9:45 a.m.)
Oil MarketOil Demand: What Is the Appropriate Long-Term Trend?
Does the weak global demand growth of the past several years indicate a new lower long-term trend, or will we return to higher growth once GDP recovers and prices stop climbing?
Dr. Mark A. Schwartz, President
Dr. Gary Eisen, Senior Director, Petroleum Product Economic Analysis
Peter Jaquette, Senior Director, Global Oil
Oil MarketLonger-Term Global Oil Supply Volumes and Composition
A reexamination of long-term liquids supply prospects, taking into account the latest developments on non-OPEC supply — including shale liquids outside North America — and the long-term implications for OPEC.
Frederick W.A. (Bill) Fuller, Senior Director, International Oil
James Mason, Consulting Senior Advisor, Global Oil
Miriam Levy, Senior Analyst, Global Oil
Michelle Patron, Senior Director, Political Risk
Oil MarketBiofuels Under Pressure
Drought in the U.S. and record high corn prices have rekindled the food vs. fuel debate. Will rising food prices weaken the allure of renewable fuels and lead to changes in mandates? This session examines the latest developments in the growing worldwide ethanol and biodiesel markets, with special emphasis on the U.S., Europe and Brazil.
David A. Zinamon, Managing Director, Refining and NGLs
Dr. Bruce Pickover, Senior Director, Global Biofuels
Corey Lavinsky, Senior Analyst, Global Biofuels
Peter J. Meyer, Senior Director, Agricultural Commodities
Gas MarketLonger-Term Gas Balances and Price Implications
An assessment of potential gas demand game changers and their related implications for structural demand growth. Also, the related future call on Lower 48 production and required drilling intensity in the context of growing associated gas volumes, followed by PIRA's analysis of the resulting U.S. gas balances and gas price risks.
Nina J. Fahy, Associate Director, Natural Gas
Sheena R. Eaton, Senior Analyst, Natural Gas
Harvey L. Harmon, Senior Director, Natural Gas and Global LNG
Electricity MarketLong-Term North American Electricity: What Is the Viability of the Current Market Construct?
This session examines the load and resource outlooks for major North American interconnections, along with expected structural changes. Fuel and environmental assumptions and price, heat rate, and capacity outlooks (including retirements) are presented, as well as our expectations regarding U.S. and Canadian nuclear operations.
Allan M. Stewart, Executive Director, Electric
Morris J. Greenberg, Managing Director, Electric Power
Jake Jian, Senior Analyst, Electric Power
Breakout Session 4

(10:05-011:20 a.m.)/p>

Oil MarketGas MarketElectricity MarketThe Upcoming U.S. Election: Implications for Energy Markets
In the context of the upcoming U.S. presidential election, this panel examines the most likely impacts on U.S. energy markets of a second-term Obama administration vs. a new Romney administration.
Michelle Patron, Senior Director, Political Risk
Dr. Bruce Pickover, Senior Director, Global Biofuels
Roman Kramarchuk, Managing Director, Emissions and Clean Energy
Glenn Schwartz, Senior Analyst, Emissions and Clean Energy
Oil MarketGlobal Crude, Condensate and Product Trade
This session analyzes global refining balances, given the evolving changes in regional oil demand, oil supply, and refinery capacity over the medium/long term. How is surplus capacity likely to be operated to maintain balances? Implications for developed and developing regional refining centers are discussed, with special emphasis on how the U.S. might expand its export market share.
Gary Greenstein, Director, Global Oil
Su Hyung Ryu, Associate Director, Global Oil
Fábio Brandão, Director, Global Oil
Richard L. Joswick, Managing Director, Global Oil
Gas MarketFuture North American Gas Supply Dynamics
This session examines potential sources of long-term supply growth. The changing mix of North American supply is covered, including the role of cross border trade, the expanding role of associated gas, and changing sources of the marginal unit of production.
Samuel S. Phillips, Analyst, Natural Gas
Sheena R. Eaton, Senior Analyst, Natural Gas
Richard M. Redash, Managing Director, Natural Gas
Gas MarketGlobal LNG
The expected rise of North American LNG exports is already applying commercial pressure to the global gas market. Buyers in Asia are using Henry Hub prices for the first time and using the prospect of U.S. and Canadian shale gas exports to leverage better contracts from other suppliers. This session will assess how gas will be priced in global markets and what this gas means for the growth prospects of other LNG infrastructure around the world.
Harvey L. Harmon, Senior Director, Natural Gas and Global LNG
Mickey Kwong, Senior Director, International Gas
Madeline Jowdy, Director, Global LNG
Simon Heald, Senior Analyst, European Energy
Electricity MarketShort- and Long-Term International Coal Markets
The influence of Asia’s coal demand growth has spread across the world, impacting the U.S. coal market significantly across the short-term and long-term horizon. This session will lay out the fundamentals of the international seaborne market (both Atlantic and Pacific Basins) and the U.S. coal trade prospects, and illustrate their connectedness.
Daniel J. Klein, Senior Director, International Coal
Robert (Bob) Roth, Senior Director, North American Coal
Leonard Hockley, Consulting Senior Advisor, Freight Markets
Jeffrey Berman, Analyst, Emissions and Clean Energy
Breakout Session 5

(11:40-12:55 p.m.)
Oil MarketGas MarketElectricity MarketRussian Energy Market Pressures
Russia remains an energy superpower as one of the largest producers of oil, gas and coal, and with strong geopolitical influences in the Middle East and Central Asia. This session will address how domestic pressures, resource development opportunities, and market choices will influence its behavior.
Michelle Patron, Senior Director, Political Risk
Daniel J. Klein, Senior Director, International Coal
Mickey Kwong, Senior Director, International Gas
Bruno Brunetti, Senior Director, European Electricity
Oil MarketGas MarketElectricity MarketGlobal Economic Growth: Slow Recovery, Structural Shift, or Something Worse?
Global economic growth remains weak, with concerns in all three major regions. Is this just a weaker than normal recovery in the aftermath of the financial crisis, or is there something more fundamental at work?
Dr. Mark A. Schwartz, President
Peter Jaquette, Senior Director, Global Oil
Alan Struth, Director, Global Oil
Nobuo Tarui, Associate Director, Global Oil
Oil MarketGas MarketGlobal NGL Markets and the Growing Role of North America
The U.S. will become an even more important player in world LPG and chemical markets. Burgeoning shale gas and oil production has set the stage for significant increases in NGL supplies. Infrastructure is being installed to enable the transport and production of this growing capability, which will increase the competitiveness of American industry. International markets will also be growing and other new sources of supply emerging. This session will place these fast changing dynamics in perspective.
David A. Zinamon, Managing Director, Refining and NGLs
Ayse Porter, Senior Analyst, Global NGL Markets
Max Pyziur, Analyst, International Gas
Dr. Naing Oo, Associate Director, Global Oil
Gas MarketNorth American Regional Gas Dynamics and Basis
This session assesses the impact of expected changes in regional sources of supply and anticipated future pipeline infrastructure investments (including NGL transportation) on regional markets, basis, and gas supply flows.
Harvey L. Harmon, Senior Director, Natural Gas and Global LNG
Richard M. Redash, Managing Director, Natural Gas Group
Electricity MarketThe "Golden Age" of Renewable Power Subsidies Is Ending; What Now?
With the end of the "Golden Age" of subsidies, renewables will also be competing against less expensive natural gas-fired generation. The prospects for additional renewables policies and penetration are reviewed, along with assessments of costs, competitiveness and promising technologies.
Roman Kramarchuk, Managing Director, Emissions and Clean Energy
Glenn F. Schwartz, Senior Analyst, Emissions and Clean Energy
Dr. Ronald B. Gold, Senior Director, Emissions and Clean Energy
Morris J. Greenberg, MManaging Director, Electric Power


Sorry, the 2012 event has already taken place.

If you were unable to attend this year's event, we hope to see you next October. Client companies will be alerted when registration is open and the agenda is finalized.

If you have questions or you encounter problems with the registration process, please contact us at support@pira.com.