World Energy Demand Model

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WORLD ENERGY DEMAND MODEL

WED users can access the same tool PIRA uses to develop its price forecasts

Click here to request an online demo demonstrating the functionality and value of the World Energy Demand Model

Launch online prospectus in PDF

OVERVIEW

Reflecting its tradition of exhaustive data-gathering and high quality analysis and forecasts, PIRA has made a series of recent enhancements to its internal proprietary World Energy Demand Model
(WED). WED has been a significant foundation of how PIRA develops its price forecasts. For the first time, WED is now available to clients via PIRA online. Subscribing users will have access to what we believe is the most comprehensive model of its type in the world, covering energy demand at its most detailed and “granular” level — some 2 million data points.

WED and its extensive dataset cover annual energy demand by sector, fuel and product for 143 countries, with history back to 1990 and projections through 2025. It is driven by PIRA’s detailed projections for country-specific GDP and population growth, oil prices, fuel substitution,

technological change and efficiency gains. Besides having every possible data point for the PIRA Reference Case, users can test their own assumptions and create customized demand scenarios.
The World Energy Demand Model forecasts annual energy demand across 9 sectors for 10 non-oil fuels and 19 oil products* (see below). The short-term portion of PIRA’s global oil Reference Case forecast is updated every month along with PIRA’s World Oil Market Forecast, and the longer-term projections are revised and updated at least twice per year.

Coverage of Multiple fuels

The “Bottom Line”
Many important energy trends are not apparent at the macro level; they need to be explored at a detailed (by country, by sector, by fuel) level. It is therefore critical to have a tool that can both show the historical trends at this level of detail and allow the development of an outlook that takes into account the specific by-sector and by-fuel trends for specific countries. PIRA’s WED is just such a tool, and it is unique in being commercially available and updated on a regular basis.

[*Includes: aviation gasoline, biodiesel, bitumen, crude oil, ethane, ethanol, gasoil/diesel, jet fuel kerosene, LPG (excluding ethane), lubricants, motor gasoline, naphtha, natural gas liquids, other products, paraffin waxes, petroleum coke, refinery gas (still gas), residual fuel oil: high sulfur, and residual fuel oil: low sulfur.]

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THE SCENARIO MANAGER: CREATE YOUR OWN DEMAND FORECAST

The World Energy Demand Model is the most efficient way to access and analyze PIRA’s latest Reference Case demand forecast data: Just create your query and in seconds your data table appears, ready for you to download to your desktop. But what if you want to test an alternative outlook or simply don’t want to rely on all of PIRA’s input assumptions? Here’s how you can use WED to create your own custom demand forecast:

As an example, let’s investigate the impact of an oil price spike in 2015:

Launch the Scenario Manager module. (See graphic to the right.) Copy the latest “PIRA Reference Case” and enter a new scenario name; e.g. “Price Spike” and click “Create.”	.
Your new scenario now has all of the Reference Case parameters. So, now you’ll edit the parameters, specifically one of the “Long-Term Indicators.” In the Parameters box (on left, above), after selecting Commodity Price > Brent and year range 2013 to 2025, you will change the price for the year you want. In this example, you will create the “spike” by changing the 2015 Brent price to $200 (as shown in the graphic below). After entering 200, click “Update.” (Of course, you can change any number of prices/years — or other parameters, within reason — or do such in a new custom scenario.)
Click on the “Enable Model Sensitivity” button if you would like to let the model incorporate the impact the oil price spike would have on GDP growth. Then click the “Compute” button. After the model has finished computing, go to the Reporting Engine page to compare the “Price Spike” scenario with the Reference Case scenario. In the Reporting Engine you can compare the energy demands and emissions in the Price Spike case with those in PIRA’s Reference Case, at any level of geographic or sectoral detail you are interested in. You can also compare the GDP growth for any country or region in the Price Spike case with PIRA’s Reference Case. All told, this simulation can be performed by one analyst in about 5 minutes with the WED. Without such a tool, the simulation could easily require a team of analysts many days to produce an internally consistent energy demand simulation, which might well lack the geographic detail provided in the WED.

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WHAT ARE THE BENEFITS OF PIRA’S WORLD ENERGY DEMAND MODEL?

It is a first-of-its-kind, unrivaled resource:

It builds on PIRA’s 30+ years of experience doing long-term global energy demand forecasting.
It provides access to the details of PIRA’s latest Reference Case energy demand forecast, by country, sector, fuel and product.
It is the exact model that PIRA uses to produce our forecasts, which means that users will immediately get the benefit of any future improvements we make to our methodology.
It incorporates the energy outlooks of all the key PIRA services: Global Oil, North American Gas, European Natural Gas, North American Power, European Electric Power, International Coal, and Emissions.

WED saves you time and money — and can make you money:

It can be used both to develop base case energy demand outlooks, like PIRA’s Reference Case, and also to perform impact analyses of many sorts: oil prices, GDP and population growth, energy supply trends or shocks, government policies — exercises that would normally require a team of people many hours can now be done by one person in minutes.
Gathering the input data, and maintaining such a model, would probably be more than a full-time job for a company to do on its own. As such, analysts are freed up to spend more time doing better analysis and forecasting, as they won’t be bogged down in data collection, model building and model maintenance.
Deeper understanding of the outlook should lead to better decisions — and better profits.

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WHO SHOULD USE WED?

Any entity with an interest in the long-run outlook for energy prices needs to have a firm grasp on where demand is going. Therefore, WED can help these types of industry participants:

Producers of energy commodities, including not only oil but also gas, and coal.
Refiners.
Producers of capital equipment for the energy industry.
Government agencies charged with analyzing energy or environmental developments and directing policy.
Environmental organizations interested in the impact of energy trends on CO2 emissions and precisely where those emissions originate by fuel, sector, and country.
Those who are invested in the long-run future of energy, either in specific countries or globally.

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FEES

The World Energy Demand Model is sold as an annual online subscription (inclusive of data updates and software enhancements). The base fee provides access to 10 users in one company location. Usage beyond that profile (i.e. more than 10 users and or more than one site) can be custom quoted by your PIRA account representative.

NOTE: Due to the extremely valuable nature of the data and the power of the model, not all client companies are eligible to become subscribers.

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GET MORE INFORMATION

Please contact your PIRA account representative for more information on the World Energy Demand Model (including arranging an online demonstration) and to receive a fee quote. Or contact sales@pira.com.