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North
American Emissions Markets Intelligence Service
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North American Emissions Markets Intelligence Service |
What Is the Price of Emissions?
Ongoing comprehensive
analysis of NOx, SO2, mercury
and CO2 and their impact on
current and prospective
emissions prices, energy markets
and assets
Launch
prospectus
in PDF
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OVERVIEW
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Environmental standards and requirements affect the bottom
line of virtually every player in the North American energy
market. Increasingly, regulators are using emissions
“budgets” and trading to achieve their objectives, thereby
putting explicit values on allowable emissions. The
availability and pricing of these allowances and offsets
credits directly influence prices of electricity, coal,
natural gas, fuel oil, and energy transportation services.
The growing intensity of policy concerns regarding climate
change is prompting consideration of measures that will
reach far beyond the scope of current emissions markets with
a number of U.S. states already taking the lead in this
direction. The current and emerging emissions market
policies are impacting investments in power plants, energy
production, transportation and marketing initiatives. They
directly affect the operating costs of major energy
consumers, producers, service providers and, increasingly,
consumer transportation options and choices.
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| Enhancements to the Service |
With greater coverage of Canada, PIRA’s U.S. EMIS is now called North American EMIS and features these enhancements:
The North American GHG Quarterly Update provides a better understanding of the policy processes and industry developments, helping inform, prepare and shape company responses to potential new markets and regulations.
The
U.S. SO2 Scorecard
summarizes and assesses market
influences affecting the SO2
market in an easy-to-read grid,
featuring charts on fuel prices,
the implied sulfur premium, and
allowance holdings.
Among the N.A. EMIS Special Reports are those that address and analyze key GHG mitigation and policy issues developing in the U.S. and Canada.
Click here for more
details.
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The potential for huge shifts in energy costs and asset
valuations has never been greater, given the vast array of
technology options under consideration and regional,
national, and international environmental regulations and
compliance alternatives under consideration or in
litigation. As such, those firms that have in-depth
understanding of these markets will have a distinct
advantage over their competitors.
PIRA’s North American Emissions Markets Intelligence
Service (N.A. EMIS) gives clients both the big picture, for a quick
perspective on significant long-term emissions market developments, as well
as up-to-date, detailed data and analysis needed to make informed,
profitable decisions.
PIRA’s experienced environmental, electricity and fuels
consultants examine the fundamental forces that affect the U.S. acid rain,
fine particulate and ozone-related markets (i.e. NOX and SO2) as well as
emerging markets for mercury and greenhouse gases. The development of U.S.
and Canadian greenhouse gas regulations and markets impacting the power
sector are covered in greater detail in order to provide a comprehensive
sense of the environmental pressures on existing and future emitters.
Although not currently subject to cap-and-trade programs, greenhouse policy
developments regarding the transportation sector are also assessed in view
of their potentially strong impact on oil industry operations and
strategies.
Clients of N.A. EMIS benefit from:
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- Near- and long-term emissions price forecasts.
These assessments draw upon the experience of PIRA’s
consultants and on research and insight into market
fundamentals.
- Comprehensive analysis of current and prospective
legislative and regulatory developments on the
national, regional and local level.
- Examination of NOX/SO2 compliance issues,
including the Acid Rain Program, SIP Call/Ozone, CAIR,
Regional Haze, NSR and others.
- Monitoring and analysis of trends in emissions
performance at the plant level, including the
installation of controls technology and performance, and
the implications for meeting current and proposed
regulations.
- Economic analysis of compliance choices,
including fuel switching, long-term technology options,
credit purchases, etc.
- Skilled assessments of the impact of potential policy scenarios.
- Special reports highlighting issues related to
current and prospective business strategies, risks and
opportunities.
- Non-partisan coverage of the evolving
political, social and business reactions to the
issues.
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WHO CAN BENEFIT FROM N.A. EMIS
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Electric Generating Companies and Industrial End-Users
Both groups are the current and obvious future targets of all major acid rain, ozone, particulates, mercury, and global warming initiatives. They face the most pressing decisions regarding compliance strategies and credit portfolio management. To safeguard their competitive positions, they must understand the implications of evolving policies on fuel, operating and investment costs, and the operations and prices of emissions credit markets. The close association between PIRA’s Emissions and Electric Power groups ensures that the products meet these users’ business needs.
Energy Transmission and Storage Companies
Pipelines, railroads, truck and barge companies, ocean freight companies, and electric transmission companies that anticipate short- and medium-term shifts in environmental requirements and compliance costs will have a strategic advantage when setting pricing strategies, valuating existing assets, targeting potential acquisitions and planning expansions.
Coal, Oil and Gas Producers and Refiners
Current and prospective regulations and credit prices significantly impact prospective national — and especially regional — markets for these fuels. In certain cases, producers will also see direct effects of regulations — and potential opportunities arising from them. These considerations will be important elements in targeting exploration and production regions and in increasing profitability. As large stationary source emitters, refineries are impacted by the expanding scope of emissions regulations. Moreover, refinery economics will be impacted by emerging greenhouse policies targeting the transportation sector, the refining industry’s most critical market.
Marketers and Traders
Electricity, coal, and gas marketers need to be fully informed about the compliance implications for fuel choice, as well as for credit pricing and management facing their customers, in order to formulate their own near- and long-term strategies.
Environmental Agencies
Such agencies will find an independent analysis of private-sector compliance strategies, progress and costs — as well as the workings of national and local emissions credit markets — invaluable in assessing the impacts of current and prospective regulatory actions.
Financial Institutions
As banks are called upon to provide debt for new energy projects, it will be imperative to analyze accurately both the market and regulatory environment for these new projects. Environmental regulation is becoming more complex and imposing its own set of constraints, costs, and opportunities for investors in electric generation and related facilities. Understanding regional markets, growth potential, infrastructure constraints, and implications of environmental regulations will be essential for due diligence.
Equipment Manufacturers and Contractors
Turbine manufacturers, EPC (engineering, procurement, and construction) contractors, environmental equipment makers, and catalyst suppliers can all benefit from a better understanding of current and prospective compliance choices facing their customers. In addition, vehicle manufacturers are on the front lines of emerging greenhouse policies.
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COMPONENTS OF N.A. EMIS
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Clients of PIRA’s North American Emissions Markets
Intelligence Service benefit from the following “deliverables”:
1. North American SO2/NOx Quarterly Update
Quarterly assessments of the SO2 and NOx markets, generally following the release of the EPA CEMs data, analyzing the most recent trends in generation, emissions, weather, fuel use, control equipment and related fundamental factors driving the markets.
2. North American GHG Quarterly Update
— A NEW Deliverable
While the U.S. has not signed Kyoto and Canada's commitment is uncertain, they are seeing continued domestic and regional developments in regulating GHG. Northeastern U.S. states are taking steps to implement a cap on power sector CO2 emissions, while California has committed to significantly reduce GHG and is actively developing policies impacting both power generation and transport to achieve its goals. On a federal level, options for national programs are being discussed, and the choices made can have serious implications for market players. Canada's efforts have been at the center of controversy, under the cloud of political uncertainty. Understanding the policy processes and timely assessment of these developments can help inform, prepare and shape industry responses to potential new markets and regulations.
3.
U.S. SO2 Scorecard —
A NEW
Deliverable
Released in the intervening two months between the North
American SO2/NOx Quarterly Updates, this report summarizes
and assesses market influences affecting the SO2 market in
an easy-to-read grid. The Scorecard also features updated
charts depicting key market fundamentals, including fuel
prices, the implied sulfur premium, and allowance holdings
by non-compliance players.
4. North American EMIS Special Reports
— NEWLY expanded
Timely reports (some 8 to 10 a year) that provide up-to-date information and in-depth analysis on current and anticipated environmental issues, market conditions, control technology advances and regulatory developments for SO2, NOx and developing Mercury and CO2 regulations — and how they impact your business.
As a recent enhancement to N.A EMIS, PIRA will deliver a minimum of four special focus reports address and analyze key GHG mitigation and policy issues developing in the U.S. and Canada.
Among topics to be covered are assessments of the RGGI market, analysis of California policy developments, and scenario analysis of national GHG programs. Additional reports include coverage of motor vehicle-related GHG analysis, emissions-reduction technologies, and corporate carbon strategies.
5. North American EMIS Bulletins
These one-off reports provide clients with analytic briefs on important timely issues confronting North American emissions markets. Unexpected shifts in the market fundamentals from movements in supply or demand require timely review and understanding to ensure an accurate assessment of emissions markets going forward. Such shifts can be policy-related (such as court-decisions on the CAIR or CAMR rules), or they could involve factors such as extreme weather events or sudden movements in the fuel markets, which may lead PIRA to update our price views.
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North American EMIS Statistics — NEWLY expanded
Clients have access to up-to-date emissions-related data by
request, including:
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- Current and historically reported annual and quarterly CEMS data.
- Scrubber (SO2) and SCR (NOx) retrofit databases —
compiling announcements of these installations at the
unit level, including expected online dates and
resultant emissions reductions.
- Scrubber and SCR control cost calculators.
- Other statistics related to the implementation of
environmental policy, such as trading budgets,
individual state SIPs, etc.
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7. Access to PIRA Staff
Phone and email access to PIRA’s staff allows clients to obtain quality analytical support on the latest developments in short-term supply and demand or request research on special topics with a quick turnaround. Clients can also arrange for conference calls with our market analysts.
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FEES
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The annual fee for PIRA’s N.A. Emissions Markets
Intelligence Service is $14,000 for up to 10 users located
at one client site; discounts are available for
existing clients to certain PIRA services, including the
Greenhouse
Gas Emissions Service.
Click here for more information on how to become a client to N.A. EMIS.
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THE NORTH AMERICAN EMISSIONS GROUP
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Ronald B. Gold (Director,
North American Emissions Group) is an International
Energy Economist with broad experience in analyzing energy,
economic, and environmental trends. In addition to his work
for PIRA, through 2006, Dr. Gold served as Vice President of
the Petroleum Industry Research Foundation, writing
extensively on U.S. energy policy issues. Dr. Gold retired
from Exxon at the end of 1997, where he was Company
Economist and Manager of the Energy Outlook Division for
Exxon Company International. Earlier in his career, he
worked for the U.S. Treasury Department, Office of Tax
Analysis, and was also an assistant professor of economics
at Ohio State University. Dr. Gold received his
undergraduate degree from Brooklyn College, City University
of New York, and his M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from
Princeton University.
Allan M. Stewart (Managing Director, Electric Power Group) is responsible for the preparation of a comprehensive series of commercially oriented assessments of
North American electricity markets as well as data and analysis of the primary drivers of emissions credit prices. Prior to joining PIRA, Mr. Stewart worked with the Consolidated Edison Co. of New York in a variety of senior positions. He received his undergraduate degree in Civil Engineering from the State University of New York at Buffalo and an MBA from Adelphi University.
Roman Kramarchuk (Director,
Global Emissions) heads up PIRA's Greenhouse Gas Emissions Service, which includes coverage
of the Kyoto credit markets and the European Emissions
Trading System. Prior to joining PIRA, he was extensively
involved in the development of the CAIR and CAMR (Mercury)
Rules and the BART Guidelines with the U.S. EPA’s Clean
Air Markets Division. Working at PG&E NEG and with PA
Consulting / PHB Hagler Bailly, he evaluated strategies
regarding power sector fuel choice, allowance purchases and
capital investments in pollution control equipment and
advised on plant development/acquisition and asset
valuation. Mr. Kramarchuk also spent several years working
on USAID- and World Bank-funded projects to develop power
markets, market rules and regulatory capacity overseas. He
has a MPP from the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard
and a BA in economics and BSE in systems engineering from
the University of Pennsylvania.
Jennifer McIsaac
(Environmental Economist for the Emissions Group) joined
PIRA after a stint with NUI Corp. There she analyzed gas
supply needs and recommended baseload/swing purchases and
storage injections/withdrawals. Prior to that, while
pursuing her undergraduate and graduate degrees, she was an
economics research intern in Exxon Company International's
Corporate Planning Department, where among many tasks she
analyzed emissions in the transportation and power
generation sectors. She holds a BA from Drew University and
is a doctoral candidate in economics at Cornell University.
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For more information:
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Please contact PIRA at 1-212-686-6808, sales@pira.com.
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