This study — featuring a written report, comprehensive online database, and briefing (see deliverables) — provides the following:

• An in-depth analysis of the impact of supply-demand forces on product price spreads, crude and condensate differentials, and refining margins. Although the focus is on the top of the barrel, the changes there will affect all products.
  
  
• A detailed outlook of the factors driving global/regional light product usage. Demand trends by region/country and by end-use sector (e.g., petrochemical plant feed, gasoline, etc.) will be examined to show how and why demand growth is expected to accelerate in some areas/sectors, but slow or decline in others.
  
  
• A comprehensive look at the production of light products, examining changes in refinery runs, crude slate, condensate and NGL production, ethanol mandates, and refinery conversion capacity. The rapid growth in non-crude light supplies will increasingly challenge the supply system to adapt.
  
  
• Analysis of interregional trade flows for LPG, naphtha, and gasoline and how they will evolve as supply, demand, and product quality requirements change.
  
  
• Regional price forecasts for light products and key crudes/condensates, with comparisons relative to competing fuels, arbitrage opportunities, and the key factors that will drive these relationships.
  
  
• Regional PIRA Reference Case projections through 2025, by year, as well as alternative scenarios that test the impact of key variables on those projections.

• Written Report. Online access to, and printed copies of, the final report that will spell out the findings of the study and the bases underlying those results, as well as lay out the key uncertainties that impact the major findings. This roughly 200-page document includes an executive summary, as well as detailed discussion and illustrative charts on: Demand, Supply, Quality/Environmental, Price, Trade, and Alternative Scenarios.
  

• Online Database (April 12, 2011). Access to an online database containing multiple Excel spreadsheets of annual historical actuals back through 1995 and forecasts through 2025, including:

• Country-level demand by sector for ethane, LPG, naphtha, and gasoline. With multiple products, covering 145 countries, 5 end-user sectors (including feed to petrochemicals for olefins/aromatics), and spanning 30 years from history through forecast, the scope and level of detail will be unmatched compared to other studies.
  
  
• Regional light product supply, with the impact of refinery capacity changes broken out. Annual refinery unit capacities and product production for LPG, naphtha, and gasoline will be reported for each of thirteen regions spanning the globe. Crude/condensate production by type, total regional refinery runs, and ethane/LPG production from gas plants will also be included.
  
  
• Inter-regional LPG, naphtha, and gasoline trade flows. Net trade between thirteen trading regions that span the globe will show how demand and refinery/gas plant production changes lead to evolution in trading patterns.
  
  
• Price forecasts for light products, and key crudes and condensates, both absolute and relative to crude, by region for annual averages from 1995 to 2025.

• Briefing (March 2011). An audio-visual presentation of the key results, where attendees can discuss those findings and their implications and question the study’s authors. To be held after the report and database are released (exact timing and location of the briefing has not yet been determined), it also will be Webcast live for those unable to attend in person and recorded for later review via PIRA's Website for study subscribers.

• Crude/condensate/NGL producers know the importance of product supply/demand balances, which set relative values for products and consequently impact crude/condensate price differentials. This study will help them identify and evaluate the future refinery value for heavy versus light, and distillate-rich versus naphtha-rich, crudes and thus the potential value of different heavy crude upgrading processes.
  
  
• Refiners need to plan capacity changes based on the outlook for product demand and relative crude/product pricing. By providing a firm basis in evaluating future changes in these factors, which define refinery conversion margins, the study will help refiners evaluate the future profitability for different refinery configurations.
  
  
• Trading companies want to anticipate regional supply/demand changes and price dynamics. This analysis will aid in planning terminal and shipping infrastructure needs to best capture trading opportunities.
  
  
• Financial institutions must make sound evaluations of how changing market conditions will affect the economics and financing of new refining, oil infrastructure, and marketing ventures. This study will allow for more informed decision-making on potential projects.
  
  
• Chemical companies, gasoline consumers, and other end-users constantly consider how changing price dynamics will influence service choices and future capacity decisions. The study will make these end-users better equipped to adapt to supply and price shifts, and it will help new project developers make more effective evaluations of supply options and project viability.
  
  
• Biofuels producers need to know what gasoline demand will be in the future and the volumes of ethanol that will be included. This study will explore regional refinery production/blending constraints and likely regulatory changes that impact ethanol economics.
  
  
• Shipping companies need to know how trade will change for clean products. TOP OF THE BARREL will provide key light product trade flows.
  
  
• Policy makers need timely insight into how proposed changes in renewables and other product quality regulations will affect supply, demand, price, and industry profitability. This study will enable them to better evaluate the impact of future regulatory changes.
  
  
• Manufacturing companies need a sound understanding of gasoline pricing in order to develop products (autos, etc.) that will best meet future market demand.

Richard Joswick (Study Leader; Managing Director, Global Oil Group) develops PIRA’s outlook for crude and products pricing, refinery margins, and inter-regional supply balances. He authors PIRA's monthly European Oil Market Forecast and numerous special projects. Over the last three years he was the study leader for the hugely successful multi-client studies: Bottom of the Barrel: The Future for Residual Fuel Oil and Heart of the Barrel, The Future for Middle Distillate Fuels. He joined PIRA in 2004 after 20 years with ExxonMobil in supply logistics, planning, refining, and engineering. During his time at ExxonMobil, he had assignments developing near-term oil market forecasts, designing heavy oil upgrading processes and evaluating refining economics. Rick has M.S. and B.S. degrees from Rutgers University in chemical engineering.

Dr. Mark Schwartz (President) works closely with PIRA's Global Oil and Natural Gas groups to evaluate the key assumptions underlying their outlooks and to develop plausible alternative assumptions and outcomes as part of PIRA’s Scenario Planning Service. Before joining PIRA in 2002, he was the Chief Economist of ExxonMobil Corp., where he was responsible for developing the company’s long-range economic and energy outlook. During his 25 years at Exxon he also had assignments in Upstream Planning, Treasurers, and Corporate Planning functions. Mark holds a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Pennsylvania.

F.W.A. (Bill) Fuller (Sr. Director, International Oil) had over 30 years of energy forecasting and analytical experience with Exxon International before joining PIRA in 1997. He now oversees PIRA’s analysis and forecasting of near-term industry oil balances, with particular emphasis on international supplies, and monitors events impacting PIRA’s oil market view. Bill has a B.S. in chemical engineering from Cornell University.

Gary Greenstein (Director, Global Oil Group) joined PIRA following 38-year career with ExxonMobil, where he was involved in all aspects of the refining business, including planning, operations, engineering, and research. Gary has a B.Ch.E. from City College of New York, an M.S. in chemical engineering from New Jersey Institute of Technology, and an M.B.A. from Fairleigh Dickinson University.

Peter Jaquette (Director, Global Oil Group) is a key contributor to PIRA's Scenario Planning Service, and was the coordinator for PIRA's Planning for Tomorrow study. He joined PIRA in 2007 with more than 25 years of experience in corporate strategic planning and economic consulting, including 14 years with ARCO and nine years with Weyerhaeuser, where he was involved in evaluating cellulosic ethanol and other energy projects. Peter has a B.A. in economics from Swarthmore College and an M.A. in economics from Stanford University.

David A. Zinamon (Managing Director, Refining and Environmental Affairs) specializes in refined products, refinery operations, NGLs, alternative fuels and environmental matters, particularly as they affect petroleum product markets. Among other activities he is responsible for PIRA's World Refinery Database. Dave also authors PIRA’s NGL market report. Dave joined PIRA in 1984 after seven years of international energy consulting experience with Chem Systems. This followed several years of manufacturing, marketing and planning positions with Celanese Chemical, GAF Corp., and Airco. Dave has a B.Ch.E. from City College of New York and an M.B.A. from Rutgers University.

Dr. Naing Oo (Associate Director) joined PIRA’s Global Oil Group in 1995. He focuses on quantitative and econometric analysis for forecasting oil demand and prices. He is also involved in analysis on crude and product balances and trade flows. Naing holds a Ph.D. in economics from the City University of New York.

Su Hyung Ryu (Associate Director) focuses on crude and product price forecasts. Ms. Ryu maintains and develops integrated oil demand and pricing models and information systems. Since joining PIRA in 1998, she has participated in numerous benchmarking and competitive analysis projects, crude and product marketing assessments, and asset valuations. Prior to joining PIRA, Su worked at Citibank Global Banking, where she analyzed and developed investment database applications. She holds M.S. in business computer information systems from Baruch College in New York..

Dr. Bruce H. Pickover (senior Director, Biofuels) manages PIRA’s Global Biofuels Retainer Service. Dr. Pickover began his career at ExxonMobil where he worked on petrochemicals and the refinery interface. He spent 27 years at consulting company Chem Systems were he was responsible for the Petroleum and Petrochemical Economics (PPE) program, multi-subscriber Studies, and commercial proprietary studies. Dr. Pickover has a Bachelors of Chemical Engineering from the City College of N.Y. and earned an M.Ch.E and a Ph.D. from New York University.

Daniel J. Dorsky (Senior Analyst, Global Oil) specializes in global exploration and production, responsible for maintaining and expanding PIRA’s production forecasts and quality models as well as developing PIRA’s short-term oil supply outlook. He regularly authors special reports on oil supply topics and has created PIRA’s models for biodiesel and Canadian oil sands production forecasts. Dan graduated from Brown University with a degree in geological sciences.