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Hilton New York Hotel |
1335 Avenue of the Americas
(6th Ave. between 53rd and 54th St.)
New York, NY 10019
Tel: 212-586-7000 Fax: 212-315-1374
Special Room Rate Deadline: rate of $309/night, September 22nd or when room block
is filled
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Registration Breakfast: Thursday , October 21, 2010,
from 7:30 A.M. to 8:30 A.M.
Seminar: Thursday, October 21, 2010, from 7:30
A.M. to 5:00 P.M.
Friday, October 22, 2010, from 8:00 A.M. to 12:55 P.M.
Cocktail Reception: Thursday, October 21, 2010, from
6:00 P.M. to 8:30 P.M. |
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This one-of-a-kind gathering will review PIRA's short- and long-term outlook for world crude oil and petroleum products, natural gas, electric power, and emissions. It also examines the major structural changes expected in various world
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energy markets. After a morning "plenary"
session, the Thursday afternoon "breakout" sessions will be broken into two sets of concurrent presentations. Each session will last just over an hour. On
Friday morning, the presentations continue under
the same structure as Thursday afternoon (two breakout sessions of
simultaneous presentations).
Some of the key presentations are repeated, providing attendees greater flexibility in choosing their schedule.
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Opening Plenary Session
Click in the 
icons in the agenda below to see more scenes from the Seminar.
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Each attendee receives a book containing copies of the presentations. Excel spreadsheets of world energy forecasts by region and energy source through 2025 will be available via the Web.
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| Eligibility |
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| The Annual Retainer Client Seminar is open to active clients of Retainers for Global Oil, North American Natural Gas, or North American Electric Power. The number of free attendees is determined by the size of the retainer package; additional attendees will be charged a fee.
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| Deadlines |
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| Registration closes on Friday October
8th, 2010. If you wish to stay at the Hilton, please phone for reservations 212-586-7000, and request a room from the "PIRA Energy Group room block."
These rooms are limited and will only be held through September 22nd or when room block is filled. Room reservations will not be held past 4 p.m. of date of arrival unless guaranteed in advance by a major credit card.
In addition to your hotel reservation, you must notify PIRA’s office of your attendance.
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2009 AGENDA
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Day One |
| 7:30-8:30
a.m. |
Registration and Continental Breakfast
(Grand Ballroom Foyer, 3rd Floor)
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8:30-9:50 a.m. |
Opening Plenary Session: Market Outlooks
(Grand
Ballroom, 3rd Floor)
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| World Oil |
Dr. Gary N. Ross |
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Global Oil Products |
Richard L. Joswick |
| Political Risks to the Outlooks |
Michelle Billig Patron |
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| 9:50-10:10 a.m. |
| Coffee Break
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10:10-11:35 a.m. |
North American Natural Gas |
Gregory J. Shuttlesworth |
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Global LNG |
Ira B. Joseph |
| Power, Coal and Emissions |
Allan M. Stewart |
| Longer-Term Issues |
Dr. Mark A. Schwartz |
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| 11:35-12:35 a.m. |
| Cocktails |
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12:35-2:00 p.m. |
Lunch and
Keynote Address:
The Political Outlook for Iraq, Iran and the Middle East
John D. Negroponte
Research Fellow and Lecturer In International Affairs, Yale
University |
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 Crude
Oil Supply Limits: Support for a Firming Market |
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Short- and long-term outlook for crude oil in light of the fall
in oil prices, economic collapse and widespread budget cuts. |
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Dr. Mark A. Schwartz, President
Frederick W.A. (Bill) Fuller, Sr. Director, International
Oil
Daniel Dorsky, Analyst, Global Oil |
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Refined
Product Markets and Crude Differentials |
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Analysis of the current and projected refining balance given the
cuts in both the demand outlook and capacity expansion plans.
Evaluation of how capacity is likely to be operated to maintain
balances. Implications and outlook for product spreads, refining
margins, and crude differentials will be discussed. |
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Dr. Gary N. Ross, Chief Executive Officer
David A. Zinamon, Managing Director, Refining
and
Environmental Affairs
Richard L. Joswick, Managing Director, Global Oil
Gary Greenstein, Director, Global Oil |
 Shale
Gas as a Global Gas Market "Game Changer" |
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Assessment of U.S. and Canadian shale gas economics with special
attention on emerging Marcellus Shale play. Status of looming
developments in Western Europe and Asia. |
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Gregory J. Shuttlesworth, Executive
Director, Natural Gas
Richard M. Redash, Managing Director,
Natural Gas
Mickey Kwong, Director, International Gas
Ekrem Esmen, Associate Director, Natural
Gas |
 Short-
and Medium-Term Coal Markets: The Return |
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A review of the response of coal supply, demand, and
transportation fundamentals to the global economic slowdown, and
a subsequent analysis of how regional coal markets will
transition in their recovery over the next few years. |
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Allan M. Stewart, Executive Director, Electric
Robert (Bob) Roth, Sr. Director, North American
Coal
Daniel J. Klein, Director, International Coal
Len Hockley, Consulting Senior Advisorl |
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Energy
Policy Under the Obama Administration |
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With the Obama administration in place and policies announced,
this session summarizes the key energy and environmental
policies, their prospects and likely impacts on energy balances. |
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Michelle Billig Patron, Sr. Director, Political Risk
Dr. Ronald B. Gold, Sr. Director, North American Emissions
Roman Kramarchuk, Sr. Director, Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Lila Noury, Sr. Analyst, Political Risk |
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Crude
Oil Supply Limits: Support for a Firming Market (Repeat) |
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Short- and long-term outlook for crude oil in light of the fall
in oil prices, economic collapse and widespread budget cuts. |
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Dr. Mark A. Schwartz, President
Frederick W.A. (Bill) Fuller, Sr. Director, International
Oil
Daniel Dorsky, Analyst, Global Oil |
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Refined
Product Markets and Crude Differentials (Repeat) |
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Analysis of the current and projected refining balance given the
cuts in both the demand outlook and capacity expansion plans.
Evaluation of how capacity is likely to be operated to maintain
balances. Implications and outlook for product spreads, refining
margins, and crude differentials will be discussed. |
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Dr. Gary N. Ross, Chief Executive Officer
David A. Zinamon, Managing Director, Refining
and
Environmental Affairs
Richard L. Joswick, Managing Director, Global Oil
Gary Greenstein, Director, Global Oil |
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North
American Long-Term Gas Balances and Prices |
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PIRA's gas price outlook with special emphasis on extent to
which constrained demand growth will limit recoupling of gas and
oil prices. Includes an examination of potential for direct or
indirect displacement of oil by gas in the transportation
sector. |
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Gregory J. Shuttlesworth, Executive
Director, Natural Gas
Harvey L. Harmon, Sr. Director, Natural Gas
and Global LNG
Ekrem Esmen, Associate Director, Natural
Gas |
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Short-Term
North American Electricity and Emissions |
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This session will present load and resource outlooks for the
major North American market regions, discuss expected structural
change, review the state of and prospects for current emissions
markets, and provide an outlook for power prices and heat rates. |
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Allan M. Stewart, Executive Director,
Electric
Morris J. Greenberg, Managing Director,
Electric Power
Jennifer McIsaac, Sr. Analyst, Emissions
Group |
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European
Influences on North American Markets |
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Assesses energy developments in Europe and their impact on U.S.
and global markets. |
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Ira B. Joseph, Executive Director,
International Gas
Bruno Brunetti, Sr. Director, European
Electricity
Daniel J. Klein, Director, International
Coal
Dr. Jakub Duda, Sr. Analyst, European
Electricity |
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| 6:00-8:30 p.m. |
| Cocktail Reception
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| Day Two |
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Macroeconomics:
The Character and Composition Of the Economic Recovery |
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Assessment of near-term U.S. and global economic prospects and
the potential for longer-term inflationary pressures. |
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Dr. Mark A. Schwartz, President
Dr. Gary Eisen, Sr. Director, Global Oil
Peter Jaquette, Director, Global Oil
Nobuo Tarui, Sr. Analyst, Global Oil |
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Canadian
Oil Sands Supply, Disposition and Pricing |
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An examination of the likely markets for incremental Canadian
crude and the pipelines required to bring the supplies to market
as well as implications for the pricing of Canadian and inland
U.S. crudes. |
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Douglas Bulger, Managing Director, Project
Consulting
Su Ryu, Associate Director, Global Oil
Asif Gangat, Analyst, Global Oil |
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New
Developments and the Evolving Shape of the Oil Demand Barrel |
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Assessment of the factors driving the shape of the demand barrel
with emphasis on transportation trends and implications for
product volumes and quality. |
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David A. Zinamon, Managing Director,
Refining and Environmental Affairs
Alan Struth, Director, Global Oil
Richard L. Joswick, Managing Director,
Global Oil |
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North
American Short-Term Gas Balances and Price |
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The prospects for 2010 gas balances and prices scrutinized in
the context of the drilling collapse and potential for drastic
changes in supply/demand dynamics. Includes other supply-side
insights from forecast gas balances in Canada and Mexico as well
as close attention to the economy and its impact. |
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Richard M. Redash, Managing Director,
Natural Gas
Tai Liu, Sr. Analyst,
Natural Gas
Nina Fahy, Analyst, Natural Gas |
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Long-Term
North American Electricity |
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Discuss outlook for load growth (power and coal), resource
changes (generation and coal supply), and present Reference Case
prices (coal and power) and heat rates along with critical
assumptions. |
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Allan M. Stewart, Executive Director,
Electric
Morris J. Greenberg, Managing Director,
Electric Power
Dr. Sindhu Suresh, Sr. Analyst, Electric
Power |
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Political
Risks to the Outlook: A Panel Discussion |
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A group of regional experts on the Middle East, Africa, South
America and Russia will assess the political climate and key
risks to production in the near and medium term. |
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Dr. Gary N. Ross, Chief Executive Officer
Michelle Billig Patron, Sr. Director,
Political Risk
Guest Panelists:
Steven Cook, Senior Fellow for Middle
Eastern Studies, Council on Foreign Relations
Darren Kew, Professor and Nigeria Expert,
University of Massachusetts
Andrew Kuchins, Senior Fellow and Director
of the Russia and Eurasia Program, Center for Strategic and
International Studies
Donna Hrinak, Former U.S. Ambassador
to Venezuela, Brazil and Bolivia |
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Upstream
Costs: The Dangers of the Seriatim |
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It is tempting to set long-term prices based on an assessment of
the marginal costs of supply, but those costs have been a moving
target. This session addresses the linkage between price
expectations, costs, and rents. |
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Dr. Mark A. Schwartz, President
Frederick W.A. (Bill) Fuller, Sr. Director,
International Oil
Peter Jaquette, Director, Global Oil
Robert Eisen, Analyst, Global Oil |
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North
American Refining and Vulnerability in a Surplus Market |
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How will refiners cope with slowing North American demand and
excess world refining capacity? Examination of the U.S. refining
system and potential changes, including capacity
rationalization. The ability to process heavier/sour crudes
provides an advantage, but will the crude slate always
profitability fill this capacity? |
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David A. Zinamon, Managing Director,
Refining and Environmental Affairs
Richard L. Joswick, Managing Director,
Global Oil
Fabio Brandão, Director, Global Oil |
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Global
LNG Markets: Finding a Home for New LNG |
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The potential for surplus LNG amounts as new projects come
forward at the same time that demand prospects have weakened and
non-conventional production prospects have improved. An
examination of the implications for LNG volumes and prices. |
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Ira B. Joseph, Executive Director,
International Gas
Harvey L. Harmon, Sr. Director, Natural Gas
and Global LNG
Mickey Kwong, Director, International Gas
Madeline Jowdy, Director, Global LNG |
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Long-Term
U.S. and International Coal Markets |
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This session will focus on long-term coal supply, demand, and
transportation fundamentals and the resulting trade flows as
well as key issues facing the global coal markets such as CO2
and other environmental regulations and new technology. |
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Robert (Bob) Roth, Sr. Director, North
American Coal
Bruno Brunetti, Sr. Director, European
Electricity
Daniel J. Klein, Director, International
Coal
Len Hockley, Consulting Senior Advisor |
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Congressional
GHG Legislation (or the Alternatives) |
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With prospects for passage of a climate bill uncertain, an
evaluation of the potential for U.S. policy to reduce GHG
emissions, including an assessment of the cap-and-trade
provisions of carbon legislation, drivers of a market price for
carbon, and the impacts. |
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Roman Kramarchuk, Sr. Director, Greenhouse
Gas Emissions
Dr. Ronald B. Gold, Director, North
American Emissions
Jennifer McIsaac, Sr. Analyst, Emissions
Group |
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China
Ascendant: The Acceleration of Chinese Influence in Global
Markets |
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The global downturn has ratcheted up the importance of China as
an energy producer, consumer, investor, and financier in the
global policy debate. |
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Michelle Billig Patron, Sr. Director,
Political Risk
Alan Struth, Director, Global Oil
Nobuo Tarui, Sr. Analyst, Global Oil
Lila Noury, Sr. Analyst, Political Risk |
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Alternative
Fuels for Transportation: Economic and Political Drivers |
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Car manufacturers have plans to bring plug-in hybrids to market.
At the same time, the world may face tight liquids supply and
surplus natural gas. What are the key economic and political
drivers that could allow alternative fuels to penetrate the
transportation market? |
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Dr. Mark A. Schwartz, President
Michelle Billig Patron, Sr. Director,
Political Risk
Ekrem Esmen, Associate Director, Natural
Gas
Max Pyziur, Analyst, International Gas
Dr. John E. Johnston, Special Advisor
to PIRA |
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Biofuels:
Near-Term Market Developments |
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This session examines the outlook for the biofuels industry
following recent bankruptcies, restructuring and investments by
major energy companies. The future of the industry given
government mandates, policy considerations and expected supply
and technical developments will be reviewed as will price and
margin implications. |
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David A. Zinamon, Managing Director,
Refining and Environmental Affairs
Dr. Bruce Pickover, Sr. Director, Global
Biofuels
Corey Lavinsky, Sr. Analyst, Global
Biofuels |
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Market
Structure and the Value of Storage |
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Oil markets have experienced periods of deep contango over the
last few years. The driving factors and the interaction with
inventory levels are examined. The importance of Atlantic Basin
crude balances, U.S. infrastructure, and freight rates /
floating storage. |
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Richard L. Joswick, Managing Director,
Global Oil
Douglas Bulger, Managing Director, Project
Consulting
Ken Bogden, Director, Freight Markets |
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North
American Regional Gas Markets and Basis |
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A discussion of North American basis differentials in the
context of all-time high expansion of the North American grid
coupled with the demand-driven lag of gas deliverability and
logistical implications from potential expansion of Marcellus
Shale gas production. |
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Richard M. Redash, Managing Director,
Natural Gas Group
Harvey L. Harmon, Sr. Director, Natural Gas
and Global LNG |
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The
Next Wave of Renewables: Incentives, Costs and Implications for
Fossil Fuel Generation and Power Prices |
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Despite challenging economics, increasing subsidies will succeed
in sharply increasing renewable generation. Potential renewable
supply and existing/prospective support mechanisms will be
discussed, including possible nationwide trading of renewable
energy credits (RECs), as well as the impact on markets. |
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Roman Kramarchuk, Sr. Director, Greenhouse
Gas Emissions
Dr. Ronald B. Gold, Sr. Director, North
American Emissions
Dr. Jakub Duda, Sr. Analyst, European
Electricity
Robert Whaley, Sr. Analyst, Electric Power |
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Global
Electricity Markets: Supply and Demand |
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This session will review recent trends in load growth by sector
and region, and power supply by major source (hydro/renewable,
nuclear, coal, and other thermal). Our Reference case outlooks
and key drivers will be presented by major source. |
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Allan M. Stewart, Executive Director,
Electric
Bruno Brunetti, Sr. Director, European
Electricity
Daniel J. Klein, Director , International
Coal
Clayton Vernon, Director, Energy Modeling |
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