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Hilton New York Hotel |
1335 Avenue of the Americas
(6th Ave. between 53rd and 54th St.)
New York, NY 10019
Tel: 212-586-7000 Fax: 212-315-1374
Special Room Rate Deadline: September 14, 2012
Click here to reserve a room online |
Registration Breakfast: Thursday, October 18, 2012,
from 7:30 A.M. to 8:30 A.M.
Seminar: Thursday, October 18, 2012, from 8:30
A.M. to 4:50 P.M.
Friday, October 19, 2012, from 8:00 A.M. to 12:55 P.M.
Cocktail Reception: Thursday , October 18, 2012, from
5:00 P.M. to 7:00 P.M. |
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This one-of-a-kind gathering will review PIRA's short- and long-term outlook for world crude oil and petroleum products, natural gas, electric power, and emissions. It also examines the major structural changes expected in various world
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energy markets. After a morning "plenary"
session, the Thursday afternoon "breakout" sessions will be broken into two sets of concurrent presentations. Each session will last just over an hour. On
Friday morning, the presentations continue under
the same structure as Thursday afternoon (two breakout sessions of
simultaneous presentations).
Some of the key presentations are repeated, providing attendees greater flexibility in choosing their schedule.
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Opening Plenary Session
Click in the 
icons in the agenda below to see more scenes from the Seminar.
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| Eligibility |
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| The Annual Retainer Client Seminar is open to active clients of Retainers for Global Oil, North American Natural Gas, or North American Electric Power. The number of free attendees is determined by the size of the retainer package; additional attendees will be charged a fee.
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| Deadlines |
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| Registration closes on
Monday October 10th, 2011. If you wish to stay at the Hilton, please phone for reservations 212-586-7000, and request a room from the "PIRA Energy Group room block."
These rooms are limited and will only be held through
September 14th or when room block is filled. Room reservations will not be held past 4 p.m. of date of arrival unless guaranteed in advance by a major credit card.
In addition to your hotel reservation, you must notify PIRA’s office of your attendance.
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2011 AGENDA
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Monday Afternoon, October 17, 2011 |
| 7:30-8:30
a.m. |
Registration and Continental Breakfast
(Grand Ballroom Foyer, 3rd Floor)
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8:30-9:50 a.m. |
Opening Plenary Session: Market Outlooks
(Grand
Ballroom, 3rd Floor)
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| World Oil |
Dr. Gary N. Ross |
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Global Oil Products |
Richard L. Joswick |
| Political Risks to the Outlooks |
Michelle Patron |
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| 9:50-10:10 a.m. |
| Coffee Break
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10:10-11:35 a.m. |
North American Natural Gas |
Gregory J. Shuttlesworth |
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Global Gas |
Ira B. Joseph |
| Power, Coal and Emissions |
Allan M. Stewart |
| Longer-Term Issues |
Dr. Mark A. Schwartz |
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| 11:35-12:35 a.m. |
| Cocktails |
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12:35-2:00 p.m. |
Lunch and
Panel Discussion:
Political Upheaval in The Middle East: What Comes Next?
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 U.S.
Shale Liquids, Canada and the Ongoing WTI Disconnect |
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Growth of shale crude and oil sands is accentuating a supply
surplus in Cushing, OK, and depressing WTI prices relative to
Light Louisiana Sweet and internationally traded crudes. The
outlook for supply, infrastructure, and refining and the
prospects for a return toward pricing parity will be discussed. |
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Dr. Gary N. Ross, Chief Executive Officer
Frederick W.A. (Bill) Fuller, Sr. Director,
International Oil
Gary Greenstein, Director, Global Oil
Doug Bulger, Managing Director, Project Consulting |
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Global
Refined Product Markets and Crude Price Differentials (Repeated
in Breakout Session 2) |
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Analysis of the near-term refining balances and how operations
have evolved to rebalance supply losses (e.g., Libya) and supply
growth (e.g., shale crude, biofuels, NGLs, SPR releases).
Implications and outlook for product spreads, refining margins,
and crude differentials will be addressed. |
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David A. Zinamon, Managing Director, Refining and Environmental
Affairs
Jerry Cunningham, Director, Global Oil
Richard L. Joswick, Managing Director, Global Oil |
 Pivotal
Lower 48 Shale Gas Plays: Marcellus, Haynesville and Eagle Ford
(Repeated in Breakout Session 3) |
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In-depth discussion on the prospects of three major North
American shale gas plays with special attention to supply
potential, cost, liquids, and impact on gas-on-gas competition. |
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Gregory J. Shuttlesworth, Executive Director,
Natural Gas
Richard M. Redash, Managing Director,
Natural Gas
Harvey L. Harmon, Sr. Director, Natural Gas
and Global LNG
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 Global
Gas vs. Coal Prospects Post-Fukushima |
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This session will focus on the outlook for global gas-for-coal
substitution in the wake of a weaker nuclear outlook. It will
focus on relative costs of coal and gas, environmental
costs/externalities, supply availability, and retail pricing.
Timing and implications for coal and gas markets will be
explored. |
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Roman Kramarchuk, Managing Director, Emissions and
Clean Energy
Daniel J. Klein, Sr. Director,
International Coal
Madeline Jowdy, Director, Global LNG
Simon Heald, Sr. Analyst, European Energy |
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Short-Term
Coal and Power Markets |
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The outlook for North American power markets through 2012,
covering regional load and resource developments and emissions
markets (CSAPR). Analysis of North American coal markets,
covering coal supply by basin, demand, and trade fundamentals. |
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Morris J. Greenberg, Managing Director, Electric Power
Robert (Bob) Roth, Sr. Director, North American Coal
Jake Jian, Sr. Analyst, Electric Power
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Near-Term
Global Oil Supply Prospects: Was 2010 a New Trend or an Anomaly? |
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Non-OPEC growth was extremely strong in 2010 at nearly 2 MMB/D,
but it is expected to weaken substantially in 2011 to closer to
its recent trend of 0.5 MMB/D. The factors affecting the outlook
and reasons for this weakening will be discussed. |
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Frederick W.A. (Bill) Fuller, Sr. Director, International Oil
Asif Gangat, Analyst, Global Oil
Max Pyziur, Analyst, International Gas
Michelle Patron, Sr. Director, Political Risk |
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Global
Refined Product Markets and Crude Price Differentials (Repeat) |
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Analysis of the near-term refining balances and how operations
have evolved to rebalance supply losses (e.g., Libya) and supply
growth (e.g., shale crude, biofuels, NGLs, SPR releases).
Implications and outlook for product spreads, refining margins,
and crude differentials will be addressed. |
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David A. Zinamon, Managing Director, Refining and Environmental
Affairs
Jerry Cunningham, Director, Global Oil
Richard L. Joswick, Managing Director, Global Oil
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North
American Domestic Gas Demand Growth Opportunities |
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With strong North American supply growth anticipated, this
session will assess the growth potential for existing and new
end-use markets for gas. |
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Richard M. Redash, Managing Director, Natural Gas
Nina Fahy, Sr. Analyst, Natural Gas |
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Europe's
Energy Conundrum: Policy Goals vs. Market Realities |
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As energy markets become increasingly globalized, this session
will examine the European market in-depth, including the
emerging trends for the power generation fuel mix.. |
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Ira B. Joseph, Executive Director,
International Gas
Bruno Brunetti, Sr. Director, European
Electricity
Simon Heald, Sr. Analyst, European
Energy
Dr. Lin Fan, Sr. Analyst, European
Energy |
Policies
and Regulations Pressure High-Emitting Facilities
and Fuels |
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New U.S. EPA regulations are being enacted to reduce emissions
in the power and industrial sectors — with implications for
operating and capacity decisions that impact prices and fuel
use. Emissions markets are re-emerging through the EPA’s
finalized CSAPR and in California’s planned GHG cap-and-trade
program — while direct regulation through policies like the HAP
MACT rule can have even greater impacts. |
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Roman Kramarchuk, Managing Director, Emissions
and Clean Energy
Jennifer McIsaac, Associate Director,
Emissions and Clean Energy
Dr. Ronald B. Gold, Sr. Director, Emissions
and Clean Energy |
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| 5:00-7:00 p.m. |
| Cocktail Reception
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| Tuesday Morning, October 18, 2011 |
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The
New Limits to Economic Growth: Risks to the Outlook |
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This session will examine the macroeconomic outlook and the key
risks, including the deleveraging process under way in the
developed world and the threat of commodity-driven inflation in
the emerging markets. |
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Dr. Mark A. Schwartz, President
Alan Struth, Director, Global Oil
Peter Jaquette, Sr. Director, Global Oil |
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Longer-Term
Global Oil Supply Volumes and Composition |
A re-examination of long-term liquids supply prospects taking
into account the latest developments on non-OPEC supply,
including shale liquids in the U.S. and abroad, and the
long-term OPEC implications of political developments in MENA.
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Frederick W.A. (Bill) Fuller, Sr. Director,
International Oil
Michelle Patron, Sr. Director, Political
Risk
Asif Gangat, Analyst, Global Oil
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Biofuels:
Regulatory Crosscurrents |
The use of ethanol, biodiesel and other biofuels continues to
grow worldwide. There have been numerous regulatory changes that
will impact future market development such as the removal of the
U.S. blending credits, lowering the near-term U.S. cellulosic
ethanol mandate, allowing E-15 blends in selected vehicles as
well as Brazil's lowering of the ethanol level in gasoline. This
session will examine the short- and medium-term implications of
these and other developments and place them in an international
context.
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David A. Zinamon, Managing Director, Refining and
Environmental Affairs
Dr. Bruce Pickover, Sr. Director, Global
Biofuels
Corey Lavinsky, Sr. Analyst, Global
Biofuels |
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Pivotal
Lower 48 Shale Gas Plays: Marcellus, Haynesville and Eagle Ford
(Repeat) |
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In-depth discussion on the prospects of three major North
American shale gas plays with special attention to supply
potential, cost, liquids, and impact on gas-on-gas competition. |
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Gregory J. Shuttlesworth, Executive Director,
Natural Gas
Richard M. Redash, Managing Director,
Natural Gas
Harvey L. Harmon, Sr. Director, Natural Gas
and Global LNG
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Global
LNG Imbalances: Correcting the Tilt |
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The global LNG market continues to evolve. As growth markets
emerge and quickly disappear (U.S.), exporters become importers
(Indonesia), and importers become exporters (Canada, U.S,
Israel?). This session will assess global market development and
pricing implications. |
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Ira B. Joseph, Executive Director,
International Gas
Mickey Kwong, Director, International
Gas
Madeline Jowdy, Director, Global LNG |
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Fuel
Prices, Regulation and Long-Term North American Electricity |
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Examines load and resource outlooks for major North American
interconnections, along with expected structural and
transmission changes. Discussions of our expectations regarding
nuclear operations and how emerging EPA regulations will impact
the thermal fleet. Review fuel and emission assumptions and
price/heat rate outlooks. A review of the relationship between
electricity prices, energy intensity and economic growth, along
with future expectations. |
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Allan M. Stewart, Executive Director, Electric
Morris J. Greenberg, Managing Director,
Electric Power
Robert (Bob) Roth, Sr. Director, North American
Coal
Meghan Schloat, Sr. Analyst, Electric Power |
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Drivers
of U.S. Oil Demand |
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2011 proved to be a weak year for U.S. oil demand. This session
will examine the fundamental drivers of U.S. demand, including
policy, vehicle trends, and industrial end-use developments to
assess prospects for near-term and longer-term oil demand
growth. |
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Peter Jaquette, Sr. Director, Global Oil
Lila Noury, Sr. Analyst, Political Risk
Alan Struth, Director, Global Oil
Dr. Gary Eisen, Sr. Director, Petroleum
Product Economic Analysis
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Refining
over the Medium/Long Term |
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Analysis of refining balances given the evolving changes in
regional oil demand, oil supply, and refinery capacity over the
medium/long term. Evaluation of how surplus capacity is likely
to be operated to maintain balances. Implications for developed
and developing regional refining centers. |
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Richard L. Joswick, Managing Director, Global Oil
Gary Greenstein, Director, Global Oil |
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Global
NGL Markets and the Growing Role of North America |
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This session will focus on the rapid growth in NGL supply
resulting from natural gas development, how and where those NGLs
are likely to be used, and the implications for pricing and
petrochemical industry development. |
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David A. Zinamon, Managing Director, Refining and
Environmental Affairs
Dr. Naing Oo, Associate Director, Global Oil
Max Pyziur, Analyst, International Gas |
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Longer-Term
U.S. Gas Balances and Prices |
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During this session we assess the long-term supply growth
options and balances, including the role of North American
cross-border trade (both Canada and Mexico), as well as the
prospects for North American LNG exports. |
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Gregory J. Shuttlesworth, Executive Director,
Natural Gas
Harvey L. Harmon, Sr. Director, Natural Gas
and Global LNG
Richard M. Redash, Managing Director,
Natural Gas |
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Short-
and Long-Term International Coal Markets |
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The influence of Asia’s coal demand growth has spread across the
world, impacting the U.S. coal market significantly across the
short-term and long-term horizon. This session will lay out the
fundamentals of the international seaborne market (both Atlantic
and Pacific basins) and the U.S. coal trade prospects, and
illustrate their connectedness. |
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Daniel J. Klein, Sr. Director, International Coal
Robert (Bob) Roth, Sr. Director, North
American Coal
Leonard Hockley, Consulting Senior Advisor
Bruno Brunetti, Sr. Director, European
Electricity |
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How
Will China Meet Its Energy Needs? |
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This session will assess the ability of China to meet its energy
needs by focusing on the drivers for top-line requirements and
the supply limits to gas, coal, nuclear and other primary energy
sources. |
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Dr. Mark A. Schwartz, President
Lila Noury, Sr. Analyst, Political
Risk
Nobuo Tarui, Associate Director,
Global Oil
Mickey Kwong, Director, International
Gas
Daniel J. Klein, Sr. Director,
International Coal |
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The
Continuing Evolution of Oil Supply Management: OPEC, SPR, Return
of the TRC? |
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Recent political and market developments have raised concerns
about OPEC’s ability to cooperate, the increased willingness of
consuming governments to use strategic stocks, and the potential
for supply rationing among North American producers during
periods of local oversupply. This session will examine recent
developments and prospects for the future. |
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Michelle Patron,
Sr. Director, Political Risk
Miriam Levy,
Sr. Analyst, Global Oil
Doug Bulger,
Managing Director, Project Consulting |
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Bulk
Freight, Tankers and Bunkers Markets |
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This session will concentrate on the dry bulk and oil tanker
freight markets, including shipbuilding, demand, changing trade
flows, and bunker prices and how they will affect the outlook
for freight rates. The impact of refinery balances and
tightening bunker sulfur regulations on bunker markets will also
be addressed. |
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Richard L. Joswick, Managing Director, Global Oil
Kenneth M. Bogden, Director, Freight
Markets
Leonard Hockley, Consulting Senior
Advisor
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Shale
Gas Impact on Regional North American Markets |
An assessment of the impact of the changing pattern of shale gas
growth, and planned pipeline infrastructure investments on
regional markets, prices, and flows.
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Harvey L. Harmon,
Sr. Director, Natural Gas and Global LNG
Richard M. Redash,
Managing Director, Natural Gas Group |
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Renewable
Energy and U.S. Power Market Impacts |
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Federal (tax incentives) and state (portfolio standards)
government policies continue to encourage the build-up of
renewables despite challenging economics. Renewable cost trends
will be reviewed, including the notion of achieving “grid
parity.” The uptake of intermittent renewables will have clear
impacts on U.S. power markets and prices. |
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Roman Kramarchuk, Managing Director, Emissions and
Clean Energy
Dr. Ronald B. Gold, Sr. Director,
Emissions and Clean Energy
Glenn F. Schwartz, Sr. Analyst,
Emissions and Clean Energy
Morris J. Greenberg, Managing
Director, Electric Power |
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