The Scenario Planning Service — Deliverables
The Scenario Panning Service
provides a fully consistent supplement to
PIRA’s base-case retainer services. Specifically, clients benefit from the following service components:
| Annual Guidebook |
- Comprehensive printed and online study that defines the base case and long-term alternative scenarios for global and regional oil and natural gas markets. Emphasis
is placed on the
2009-2025 time frame.
See a detailed table of contents.
- Data tables on prices and volumes associated with these scenarios.
- Identification of "signposts" to monitor in assessing whether assumptions are tracking base case or deviating toward scenario cases.
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| Quarterly Tracking Reports |
- Monitoring of identified signposts, including:
- Global oil and gas demand growth trends
- Energy and environmental policy developments
- OPEC production, capacity and strategic plans
- Trends in FSU and other key non-OPEC oil producers
- Progress on key natural gas pipelines and LNG projects
- Domestic oil and gas production trends in the U.S., Europe, and Asia
- Migration patterns of key gas-intensive manufacturing industries
- Emerging demand and supply technologies (e.g. fuel cells, hybrids,
GTL)
- Assessment of impact on scenario probabilities
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| Current News and Analysis Bulletins |
- Sent on an
"as-events-dictate" basis, assessments of specific news events with the potential to alter long-term trends.
Stories from recent
months that are examples of the type of events that SPS will assess include:
- Impact of Canadian commitment to Kyoto on Canadian heavy oil production
- Impact of TEPCO nuclear scandal on regional and global market for LNG
- Implications of Nigerian objective of higher production on OPEC cohesion
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| Annual Roundtables
(Houston
and London) |
- Participants receive two invitations to
attend either of two annual roundtables, which provide an opportunity for clients to:
- Discuss scenarios directly with PIRA team
- Dialogue over specific key concerns, define additional scenarios of interest
- Attend special in-depth scenario sessions with senior PIRA staff. Examples may include:
- World Oil — assessment of alternative outcomes on Iraq
- North American Gas — scenarios around Alaskan gas and LNG supply
- Refining — assessment of new automobile technology/alternative fuels and impacts on overall demand and refining balances
- Energy Policy — update on developments in Washington and the EU and implications for regional balances
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| Custom Scenario Constructions |
- Clients are entitled to request PIRA to use in-house tools to construct two (2) specific scenarios per year, tailored to their own views on key variables such as price, economic growth, and supply availability. When requested, we will provide guidance and recommendations regarding how best to incorporate the conclusions of the scenario work into their decision-making process.
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| Phone Access to PIRA Staff |
- As with all PIRA services, phone access to PIRA’s staff allows Clients to obtain timely analytical support, facilitating a more productive use of their time and maximizing the value of the written content delivered at the roundtables, via email and the Web. Clients can call to discuss defined scenarios or to get feedback and guidance on concerns of their own.
- Phone access is available in advance of the release of the Annual Guidebook.
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| PIRA Online |
- All reports, data tables, and presentations
are available to clients on PIRA Online. As such, recent and archive material will be easily searchable.
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