The Scenario Planning Service —
An invaluable service that defines alternative outlooks for energy prices
Launch
entire prospectus in PDF
How do we plan for the future,
given energy market uncertainty?
The Scenario Planning Service defines and tracks the critical assumptions behind our worldwide oil and gas projections. Scenarios are developed as a supplement to our Reference Case projections, consistent with PIRA’s quantitative, no-nonsense approach to analyzing markets.
Anyone who has observed global
energy markets over the decades
recognizes that even the soundest
forecast is surrounded by a wide
range of uncertainty. Projections
are developed on the basis of a
series of assumptions — on
economic growth, resource
availability, government policies,
technology, and the behavior of
key energy suppliers. PIRA has a
track record of being better than
the consensus in getting these
assumptions right through solid,
tireless analysis and a detailed
knowledge of market data.
Nevertheless, there are inherent
uncertainties that even the best
analysis cannot eliminate.
While uncertainties can't be
eliminated, they can be
identified, quantified and their
impact on business plans assessed.
The objective of the Scenario
Planning Service is to define and track these alternative outcomes in a
way that makes them useful to our
clients in testing their business
strategies.
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SPS can help clients answer the following questions:
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- What are the risks that
prices and volumes could
significantly differ from PIRA’s
base case?
- How much different could they be?
- What probabilities should I assign to these alternatives?
- What signs will indicate whether to put increasing emphasis on one of the alternative scenarios?
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PIRA is not be the first to
offer long-range oil and gas
scenarios, but this service is different, taking advantage of
PIRA’s no-nonsense approach to
market analysis.
SPS is:
- Quantitative
We do not focus on intricate story-telling,
although our scenarios are grounded in realistic
appraisals of political, economic and technological
uncertainties. Instead, SPS focuses on and quantifies
the parameters that are most important to you —
namely, prices and volumes along with our assessment
of probabilities.
- Ongoing
Some companies develop one-off scenarios, present the
results, and then move on. SPS is an ongoing retainer
service — not a multi-client study — so that we
can keep the scenarios evergreen, track the key
assumptions behind each one, and let clients know if
and when developments in energy markets change our
views on outcomes and probabilities.
- Customizable
Each client may have their own particular views or
concerns over key assumptions. SPS allows subscribers
to
get a consistent view of the energy world, under those
assumptions, using PIRA’s proprietary models. We
will also work with clients to assist them in
determining how best to incorporate the conclusions of
the scenario work into their decision-making process.
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