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Planning For
Tomorrow Study |
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Planning for Tomorrow: PIRA’s Five-Year
Outlook for Crude Oil and Refined Product Markets, 2008-2013 |
A Multi-Client Study to Support Planning and
Global Market Research
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Launch online prospectus in PDF
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OVERVIEW
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Effective strategic planning in the oil industry requires a
set of assumptions that is comprehensive, global, and
internally consistent. Developing the detailed assumptions
and bases necessary requires time-consuming analysis by
experts in many different disciplines. In its new
multi-client study, PLANNING FOR TOMORROW: PIRA’S FIVE-YEAR
OUTLOOK FOR CRUDE OIL AND REFINED PRODUCTS MARKETS,
2008-2013, PIRA Energy Group saves companies the time
associated with this arduous task by bringing together its
global energy analysis, models, and forecasting intelligence
to provide a comprehensive, internally consistent outlook
for oil industry planning and market research.
PLANNING FOR TOMORROW will be
comprehensive, not only covering
conventional liquids, the rapidly growing volume of
alternative fuels, and refined-product markets, but also
placing oil demand and supply in the context of all other
fuels and the specific characteristics of each end-use.
While the study will cover the
global
market as a whole, it will also delve deeply
into key
regions and countries, taking into account
the relationships of specific markets and arbitrage
opportunities between them. And it will be
internally
consistent between these regions/countries
and across products to allow the accurate comparison of
project economics in different business units and regions.
Drawing on PIRA’s Global Crude Oil
& Refined Products Retainer Service,
Global Biofuels Service,
World Refinery Database, and
Freight Market Outlook,
PLANNING FOR TOMORROW will provide an invaluable tool for
oil industry planning and market research by offering these
features:
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- A comprehensive online database.
Providing history back to 1995 and forecasts through
2013, the database covers, by key region and country,
economic growth and energy demand; crude oil supply and
demand, call on OPEC, prices, and netback values;
refined products supply and demand, prices, cracks, and
margins; as well as refinery configuration and capacity,
trade flows, and freight rates. See below for a complete
outline.
- The outlook for global energy demand.
Starting with the outlook for economic and population
growth in key countries and regions, the outlook for
global energy demand will be examined and quantified by
fuel and end-use sector, placing the demand for each oil
product in its proper context. In addition, trends in
energy intensity and energy-related CO2 emissions will
be calculated for key countries and regions.
- The outlook for liquids supply.
Based on PIRA’s models of resource base, project
development, new exploration and decline rates, the
study will provide the outlook for crude oil production
divided into six major quality grades, distinguishing
production both by region and between OPEC and non-OPEC.
The outlook for other liquids production, including
NGLs, synfuels and biofuels, is added to complete the
supply/demand balance.
- A forecast for crude oil pricing.
Based on the outlook for overall energy demand, the
detailed outlook for crude oil demand will be matched
with PIRA’s outlook for liquids supply. The crude oil
supply/demand balance and call on OPEC production lead
to the outlook for crude oil prices, which will be
reported for the benchmark crudes WTI, Brent and Dubai.
- Forecast netback values for up to six
client-determined crude streams, calculated in
their key natural export markets. These netback values
represent the value of the refined products produced
from the specific crude, adjusted by freight cost and
based on PIRA’s outlook for refined product prices in
the key global refining markets and freight rates.
Similar values for key regional benchmark crudes will
also be provided for comparison.
- The outlook for global refining.
Bringing together PIRA’s outlook for refined product
demand and the information contained in
PIRA’s World Refinery Database,
the outlook for global refining will include projections
of crude oil refinery runs by region, refinery
configuration, and capacity (including a list of planned
refinery projects with PIRA’s expected probability of
completion), taking into consideration the impact of
changing product specifications.
- The outlook for refined product pricing.
The study will provide PIRA’s outlook for prices for
five major products (naphtha, jet/kero, gasoline,
gasoil/distillate and fuel oil) in the U.S. Gulf,
Rotterdam, the Mediterranean, Singapore and the Arabian
Gulf. Product cracks and refining margins will be
calculated from the product and crude oil prices.
- The outlook for crude and refined product
trade and freight. The study will detail the
outlook for trade between regions for crude oil and
refined products, based on PIRA’s regional outlook for
oil product demand, refinery production and crude oil
runs. Also included will be PIRA’s outlook for crude oil
freight rates for the key crude oil voyages.
- A PowerPoint presentation — delivered via a
WebEx workshop and made available both in print and on
PIRA online — that communicates the study’s contents and
findings. This comprehensive presentation —
some 100 slides in length — will effectively explain the
key assumptions, analysis and conclusions, allowing
PLANNING FOR TOMORROW subscribers to get the most out of
the study. Option: For an additional fee, the
presentation may be provided to a subscribing company
via a private WebEx briefing or in person at a client
site.
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DATABASE OUTLINE |
Central to the study is a comprehensive database (see full
list of deliverables below), the contents of which are shown
below. Unless otherwise noted, all concepts/series are
provided for each country/region listed in the table at the
bottom.
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- Energy Demand and Key Drivers
- Real GDP level and growth
- Population and growth
- Energy demand by fuel (oil, natural gas, hydro,
nuclear, solid fuels, biofuels, etc.) and sector
(industrial, electric generation, transportation and
residential/commercial)
- Measures of energy intensity; e.g. energy/GDP,
energy/population, etc.
- Energy-related CO2 emissions
- Liquids Supply
- Crude oil production by quality (light sweet,
medium sweet, heavy sweet, light sour, medium sour
and heavy sour)
- In addition to the key regions, crude oil
production will be split between OPEC and total
non-OPEC
- NGL production
- Ethanol, biodiesel and other non-conventional
liquids supplies
- Crude Oil Pricing
- Prices for the key crudes WTI, Brent and Dubai
- Netback values for client-specified crudes and
key benchmarks in relevant refining markets
- Refined Products Markets
- Demand for major refined products (naphtha, jet/kero,
gasoline, gasoil/distillate, low sulfur fuel oil and
high sulfur fuel oil) plus demand for LPG
- Crude oil refinery runs by region
- Refinery configuration and expected total
capacity by region
- List of major refinery projects, both expansion
and upgrading, with PIRA’s expected probability of
completion
- Refined Product Pricing
- Product prices for the major refined products
(naphtha, jet/kero, gasoline, gasoil/distillate and
fuel oil) in the U.S. Gulf, Rotterdam, Med,
Singapore, and the Arabian Gulf
- Product cracks
- Refinery margins for reference crudes
- Oil and Refined Product Trade and Freight
- Crude oil trade flows between regions
- Refined product trade flows between regions for
jet/kero, gasoline, gasoil/distillate and fuel oil
- Crude oil freight rates: AG to Japan, AG to NWE,
AG to USGC, Africa to Asia, West Africa to USGC,
Black Sea to Med, West Africa to USEC, North Sea to
USEC
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WHO BENEFITS FROM THIS STUDY
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Effective strategic planning and budgeting in the oil
industry requires more than just an outlook for crude oil
prices. The decisions faced by oil companies are far more
complex and require detailed assumptions covering a range of
crude oil and refined product prices with all the associated
arbitrages, cracks and margins. For capacity and
transportation planning, the level of demand and
inter-regional product flows need to be projected for each
key region. These, in turn, need to consider the
relationship between regional crude availability, refining
capacity, and product demand. All these assumptions need to
be internally consistent by means of an integrated, global,
bottom-up analysis of all aspects of the oil market.
This is a very time consuming effort, requiring the
development of models and tools covering oil supply, demand
and transportation and expertise in many different
disciplines: macroeconomics, energy demand, refined product
demand, oil supply, refinery economics, logistics and more.
As a practical matter, many companies find it difficult to
justify hiring and developing the internal expertise and
models in all these areas. Rather than attempting to
duplicate this entire complex analytical effort themselves,
industry participants such as these should take advantage of
the work of PIRA’s expert analysts:
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- Integrated state and private oil companies,
which need to have a consistent basis for planning and
project evaluation covering the entire spectrum of the
oil market, from crude oil to refined products and
including the impact of alternative fuels,
transportation costs and regional differences.
- Crude producers, who need to
understand not only the global outlook for crude oil
supply, demand and pricing, but also how the changing
slate of crude qualities will interact with the evolving
refining system to change the relative value of
different crude streams. The study will provide them an
outlook for strategic planning that incorporates PIRA’s
detailed analysis of crude oil production, refined
product demand, and the current and future capabilities
of the global refinery system.
- Refiners, who need to understand
the interplay between regional demand by product,
changing product specifications, changing crude quality,
growth in non-conventional liquids such as biofuels and
the evolution of regional refinery capability. The
outlook provided by PIRA’s PLANNING FOR TOMORROW study
will allow refiners to evaluate a broad range of
alternative strategies.
- Other investors in oil infrastructure,
such as storage and pipelines, who need to understand
the prospective changes in crude oil and refined product
flows on a regional basis and the implications for
supporting infrastructure.
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WHAT DO STUDY SUBSCRIBERS RECEIVE? |
Each authorized user of the PLANNING FOR TOMORROW study will
obtain the following valuable set of deliverables upon
release of the study in March 2008.
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A COMPREHENSIVE ONLINE DATABASE that provides
historical data back through 1995 and forecasts through 2013
in Excel spreadsheets covering the study regions and
countries for: |
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- Economic growth and energy demand, by fuel and by
sector
- Supply and demand for crude oil, call on OPEC, and
crude oil prices
- Benchmark crude netback values
- Six client-specified crude netback values (indicate
such on the Acceptance Form)
- Refined products supply and demand
- Refined product prices, cracks, and refining margins
- Crude oil and key refined products trade flows,
including freight rate outlook
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AN EXECUTIVE SUMMARY, printed and online, that
documents the medium-term outlook for oil and petroleum
products. Approximately 30 pages in length, it will
discuss PIRA’s Reference Case outlook for the demand, supply
and price of oil and refined products by grade in key
countries and regions of the world.
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A POWERPOINT PRESENTATION, via a WebEx workshop, in
print, and on PIRA online, that explains the key
assumptions, analysis and conclusions of the study.
Option: For an additional fee, the presentation may
be provided to a subscribing company via a private online
briefing or in person at a client site.
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FEES AND OPTIONS
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PLANNING FOR TOMORROW can be purchased by
both PIRA retainer clients as well as non-clients.
Existing PIRA retainer clients receive a reduced price.
Companies that order before January 18, 2008, receive a 10%
“early bird” discount. Subscriptions allow for
three authorized users (3 user IDs to access online content
and 3 printed copies of the Executive Summaries and
PowerPoint presentations). See the
Acceptance Form.
Option: For an additional fee, the
PowerPoint Presentation deliverable may be provided via a
private WebEx briefing or in person at a client site for
$4,000 ($2,500 for PIRA clients). If on-site, or if the
briefing requires excess preparation, a special fee will be
quoted; please contact your PIRA sales representative if you
are interested in this option.
2009 Update: Assuming sufficient client
interest, it is PIRA’s intention to provide an updated
version of this study on an annual basis through a fee-based
subscription.
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ABOUT PIRA ENERGY GROUP
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PIRA Energy Group, founded in 1976, is an international
energy consulting firm, offering Retainer Client Services as
well as multi-client studies and customized consulting on a
broad range of subjects in markets for international oil,
natural gas (and LNG), coal, electricity, biofuels, and
freight, as well as related environmental issues. PIRA
provides evaluation of key U.S. and international energy
issues that impact the behavior and performance of the
industry and its various markets and sectors. Currently,
more than 500 companies spread across some 60 countries
retain PIRA, including international and national integrated
oil and gas companies, independent producers, refiners,
marketers, oil and gas pipelines, electric and gas
utilities, industrials, trading companies, financial
institutions, and government agencies. |
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THESTUDY TEAM
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Peter Jaquette (Director, Global Oil
Group) is the coordinator of the PLANNING FOR TOMORROW
study, working closely with PIRA’s Global Oil, Refining,
Biofuels and Freight groups. He is responsible for expanding
the coverage of the Scenario
Planning Service to include key refined products and
coal prices for alternative cases. Peter joined PIRA in 2007
with more than 25 years of experience in corporate strategic
planning and economic consulting, including 14 years with
ARCO and nine years with Weyerhaeuser, where he was involved
in evaluating cellulosic ethanol and other energy projects.
Peter has a B.A. in economics from Swarthmore College and an
M.A. in economics from Stanford University.
Richard Joswick (Managing Director, Global
Oil Group) develops PIRA’s outlook for crude and products
pricing, refinery margins, and inter-regional supply
balances. He authors the monthly
European Oil Market Forecast and numerous special
projects. He joined PIRA in 2004 after 20 years with
ExxonMobil in supply logistics, planning, refining, and
engineering. During his time at ExxonMobil, he had
assignments developing near-term oil market forecasts,
designing heavy oil upgrading processes, and evaluating
refining economics. Rick has M.S. and B.S. degrees from
Rutgers in chemical engineering.
Dr. Mark Schwartz (President) works closely
with PIRA's Global Oil and Natural Gas groups to evaluate
the key assumptions underlying their outlooks and to develop
plausible alternative assumptions and outcomes. Before
joining PIRA in 2002, he was the Chief Economist of
ExxonMobil Corp., where he was responsible for developing
the company’s long-range economic and energy outlook. During
his 25 years at Exxon he also had assignments in Upstream
Planning, Treasurers, and Corporate Planning functions. Mark
holds a Ph.D. in economics from the University of
Pennsylvania.
Doug Bulger (Managing Director) heads up
the Project Consulting Group. Before joining PIRA in April
2005, Doug was Manager - Supply & Trading for Shell Canada,
and previously Manager - Refinery Supply for Deutsche Shell
AG in Hamburg, Germany. In these positions, Doug led Crude
and Products Supply, Supply Strategy and Optimization,
Marine, Logistics and Risk Management teams. During his 29
years at Shell, Doug was also an Advisor in Corporate
Strategies at Shell Canada undertaking studies in Strategy
Development, Competitive Positioning, Acquisition and
Corporate Restructuring. He holds a B.Eng. in chemical
engineering from McGill University and an MBA from the
University of Calgary.
David A. Zinamon (Managing Director,
Refining and Environmental Affairs) specializes in refined
products, refinery operations, NGLs,
alternative fuels and environmental matters, particularly as
they affect petroleum product markets. Among other
activities he is responsible for PIRA’s World Refinery
Database. Dave also authors PIRA’s monthly NGL market
report. Dave joined PIRA in 1984 after seven years of
international energy consulting experience with Chem
Systems. This followed several years of manufacturing,
marketing and planning positions with Celanese Chemical, GAF
Corp., and Airco. He has a B.Ch.E. from City College of New
York and an M.B.A. from Rutgers University.
F.W.A. (Bill) Fuller (Sr. Director,
International Oil) had over 30 years of energy forecasting
and analytical experience with Exxon International before
joining PIRA in 1997. He now oversees PIRA’s analysis and
forecasting of near-term industry oil balances and monitors
events impacting PIRA’s oil market view. Bill has a B.S. in
chemical engineering from Cornell University.
Kenneth M. Bogden (Director, Freight
Markets) is responsible for PIRA’s monthly
Freight Market Outlook. Prior to joining PIRA in 2005,
Ken worked for ExxonMobil for 27 years, primarily in its oil
supply and trading and planning functions, and also served
as Coordinator of Transportation Planning. Ken has a B.S. in
chemical engineering from Lafayette College and an M.B.A.
from Columbia.
Joseph T. (Joe) Pezzino (Director)
maintains PIRA's Worldwide Refinery
Database, including capacity analysis, product quality
implications, and margins. Before joining PIRA in 2000, he
led refinery process tech services, economics, and planning
during a 30-year career at Mobil. He also worked in
Corporate Supply & Distribution and subsequently at Mobil
Research specializing in supply chain optimization. Joe has
an M.B.A. and B.S. in chemical engineering from S.U.N.Y. at
Buffalo.
Dr. Naing Oo (Associate Director) joined
PIRA’s Global Oil Group in 1995. He focuses on quantitative
and econometric analysis for forecasting oil demand and
prices. He also analyzes crude and product balances and
trade flows. Naing holds a Ph.D. in economics from the City
University of New York.
Clayton Vernon (Director of Energy
Modeling) is responsible for PIRA's global energy demand
model. Clayton came to PIRA from Bank of America, where he
was in charge of Fundamentals Analysis for their Commodities
Trading group. Prior to joining B of A, Clayton was Director
of Fundamentals Analysis for Enron in Houston. Clayton has
an M.S. in econometrics from the University of Texas at
Austin and a B.S. in mathematical physics from Rice
University in Houston.
Su Hyung Ryu (Associate Director) focuses
on crude and product price forecasts. Su maintains and
develops integrated oil demand and pricing models and
information systems. Since joining PIRA in 1998, she has
participated in numerous benchmarking and competitive
analysis projects, crude and product marketing assessments,
and asset valuations. Prior to joining PIRA, Su worked at
Citibank Global Banking, where she analyzed and developed
investment database applications. She holds M.S. in business
computer information systems from Baruch College in New
York.
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For more information:
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Please contact PIRA at 1-212-686-6808, sales@pira.com.
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