PIRA Energy Group

Oil Trade Flow Portal

A PREMIUM ENHANCEMENT TO YOUR OIL RETAINER SERVICE

Fast, User-Defined Access to PIRA’s Oil Trade Flow Data

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Oil trade patterns are shifting. Demand growth is concentrated in China, India, and the Middle East. OECD-country demand is flat to down as continued high prices and government policies are restraining growth. Meanwhile, crude supply growth is increasingly concentrated in OPEC, with the North Sea, Mexico, and many other mature, non-OPEC regions in decline.

Trade shifts aren’t just regional. The shape of barrel is also changing. Demand growth is now strongest in distillates and much weaker in gasoline and fuel oil. Most new refining capacity — much of it logically slated for China, India, and the Mideast — is more sophisticated, designed to run heavier, sour, high acid crude and produce low sulfur light products designed to meet tighter product specifications. Inevitably, significant infrastructure (OPEC refinery capacity growth, FSU pipelines, etc.) will change, greatly impacting the pace of exports and imports.

To help its clients gain a better understanding of these changing oil trade patterns — and anticipate future changes — PIRA has launched the Oil Trade Flow Portal. It provides detailed, interactive balances and trade flows for crude and major refined products, both short-term (quarterly) and long-term (annual). Accessible through PIRA Online, the portal provides user-defined data tables, broken out into 13 distinct regions (see table below), on refinery product production/yields, crude production/runs, product demand, net inter-regional trade flows, inventory changes and so on.

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Clients of PIRA’s Oil Trade Flow Portal benefit from:

Region-by-region balances and inter-regional net trade flows for crude/condensate, gasoline/blendstocks, jet/kero, gasoil/diesel, and heavy fuel oil.
Quarterly forecasts through 4Q 2009.
Annual forecast balances through 2020.
Historical numbers extending back to 1995 for annual data; 2004 for quarterly breakouts.
Flexible data retrieval (e.g., all regions for one time period, one region for multiple time periods).
The ability to download data sets into spreadsheets, as well as the ability to generate reports and create “trade flow maps” and pie charts.

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About the Portal

The Oil Trade Flow Portal is a unique tool that combines the most important elements crucial for a thorough evaluation of regional supply, demand, and trade balances. Regional demand for key products is built up from reported historical country-level data that underpin PIRA's proprietary Global Energy Demand Model. Regional supply is also grounded in historical crude production and refinery production data that anchor PIRA's regional supply forecast models. Trade data rely on reported import/export statistics and other sources. In the end, the world must balance, and PIRA's forecasts are based on that fact. The data are internally consistent and seamlessly transition from historical actuals to forecasts. Near-term balances are broken out by quarter and extend from recent history (2004) though 4Q 2009. (2010 quarterly data will be put in the portal in June 2009.) They are revised monthly (typically by the end of the first week of each month). Long-term annual balances extend from 1995 to 2020 and are revised twice each year (typically in May and November).

Products Covered

Crude Oil

Diesel and Gasoil

Jet Fuel / Kerosene

Gasoline

Residual Fuel Oil

Data Categories Include

Crude Production

Refinery Capacity

Refinery Runs

Refinery Production

Net Imports by Region

Demand

Stock Changes

U.S. Blendstock Imp.

U.S. Feedstock Imp.

The portal is divided into two main sections — Regional Summary and Trade Evolution — with each section having multiple analysis/reporting options:

1. Regional Summary

This section gives Oil Trade Flow Portal users access to short- and long-term regional aggregations for period-averages, comparisons between time periods, and comparisons with prior PIRA forecasts. It also provides regional-level “drill-down” capabilities on net imports. Regional trade flow tables and “flow maps” can be generated for any time period and product. All data can be downloaded in multiple formats.

Here is a query result providing a data “matrix” that shows gasoline flows in 1Q09.
Note the ability to expand the Net Imports category to reveal by-country data.

2. Trade Evolution

This section gives time-series reports showing how particular regional data evolve. Reports can cover imports, production, inter-regional import/export, stock changes, demand, and refinery capacity. Reporting/analysis options are:

Regional - Trade Evolution reports are organized by product and region over a particular time period. A sample regional evolution report:

Quarterly Comparison - These reports compare quarterly data over a period of three years. Shown below is a sample for regional diesel/gasoil demand.

Single Product/Category - These reports are for all regions and are organized by product and by a specific data category within this product (such as production or demand). These data can be compared in both short-term and long-term modes.

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Trade Flow Maps

A special feature of PIRA’s Oil Trade Flow Portal is the trade flow map. These maps provide a graphical representation of one region’s import/export data. In addition to the map, a pie chart appears below representing the coverage from each region of crude runs/product demand in percentage terms.

A sample Regional Summary Trade Flow Map for crude runs / oil trade for China.

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For pricing options on adding the Oil Trade Flow Portal to your PIRA service, click here.

For more information on PIRA’s Oil Trade Flow Portal, contact your PIRA sales representative to arrange for an online demonstration.