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WHAT CAN YOU DO WITH OPTA?
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In one easy-to-navigate site, OPTA provides a wealth of data and research tools designed specifically for the sophisticated oil products trader. These features include:
 Trading Enhancer
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| The key feature of OPTA, the Trading Enhancer offers the same tools that PIRA consultants use in developing their price forecasts. Users can view historical contract and cash prices on the basis of action during their tenures as the front month and at contract expiration, both relative to days supply forward cover. Prices for individual futures contracts, cash versus futures spreads, front-to-back spreads, and crack spreads can be examined to determine timing of seasonal trends, to view price history under a similar supply/demand environment and inventory situation, and to forecast market price moves. These relationships can be utilized as a predictive tool in forecasting price development, planning trading and hedging strategies, or planning refinery operations.
The charts provide a matrix of data points (including the latest settlement price) overlaid on a vertical line of days supply forward cover. A trend line can show you the likely "fair value" of that contract as determined by recent history — and therefore reveal what position to take on that contract.
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| Light Product Balances
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In this mode, OPTA users can view PIRA’s latest forecast of monthly crude runs and light product supply/demand balances for the U.S. and Europe. These balances provide an effective road map to estimate and anticipate run levels and import/exports, creating a basis to view the impact of increasing, or decreasing, product demand in each region. Ultimately, inventory levels drive relative prices, and these are determined by the balances. The spreadsheets include:
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- For the U.S.:
- Gasoline and Distillate Balance
- Commercial Stocks
- Yields on Crude Runs
- Gasoline and Distillate Yield Graphs
- USGC Gasoline/Distillate Prices
- For Europe:
- Gasoline and Gas/Diesel Oil Balance
- Commercial Stocks
- IEA, Europe Yields (% on Crude Runs)
- Refinery Turnarounds and Crude Runs
- Gasoline and Distillate Yield Graphs
- Rotterdam Gasoline/Distillate Prices
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| Refinery Turnarounds
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| PIRA does a detailed turnaround survey of U.S. refiners along with a “best-guess” estimate of European monthly turnarounds. When considered in the context of projected light product balances, turnaround information can provide insight into potential openings of arbitrage plays and price activity for futures, cracks, and spreads.
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| Imports/Exports
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| This mode includes the most recent data covering source and destination for gasoline and distillate/gasoil moving to and from the U.S. and Western Europe. Also included are the latest Suez Canal movements for these two products, tying the East (Asia) to the West. Historical data provide insight into regularly occurring arbitrage opportunities, timing, sources, and destinations, and they tie in with price activity on futures exchanges. What moved where in recent months and in the prior year provide insight into future movements.
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| Daily Futures / Moving Averages
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This mode provides a one-click source of NYMEX and IPE futures data:
- Futures Contract Prices and Spreads. Users can view the previous five days’ close for the next 10-month futures:
- Contract prices for: NYMEX WTI crude, NY harbor gasoline, No.2 fuel oil, natural gas, and propane gas; and for IPE Brent crude and
gasoil.
- Spreads for NYMEX unleaded less WTI, heating oil less WTI, gasoline less heating oil, and propane less natural gas; and for IPE gasoil less Brent.
- Crack spread.
- Front-to-back spreads for: NYMEX WTI, unleaded gasoline, heating oil, and natural gas; and for IPE Brent and
gasoil.
- Moving Average Charts. Graphical representation of the settlement price and 13-, 34-, 40-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages for each futures contract.
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| Commitment of Traders
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This mode provides a wealth of data divided into two parts:
- Current and historical weekly Commitment of Trader data for all NYMEX futures and options contracts.
- Charts that indicate recent trends in comparisons of commodity price vs. non-commercial net positions.
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| Margin Charts
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This mode provides a series of charts that show recent netback refining margin trends. The 10 margin calculations are based upon data generated by PIRA’s refinery model simulation of operations in each regional refining center. The margins include:
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- NWE cracking margin (Dated Brent)
- NWE hydroskimming margin (Dated Brent)
- USGC cracking margin (LLS)
- USGC cracking margin (WTI Midland)
- Group 3 cracking margin (WTI Cushing)
- Chicago cracking margin (WTI Cushing)
- Singapore topping margin (Dubai)
- Singapore cracking margin (Dubai)
- Med cracking margin (Urals Med)
- Med hydroskimming margin (Urals Med)
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| DOE Weekly Analysis
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| A key part of
PIRA's Global Oil Retainer Service, the DOE Weekly Analysis provides PIRA’s weekly tabulation of DOE statistics along with expert analysis that points out emerging trends behind the data. The report — published every Wednesday after the DOE releases its “Weekly Petroleum Status Report" — is conveniently bundled into OPTA for ready reference, giving users the ability to compare most recent data to historical data in order to prepare their own analysis and identify trends as they unfold.
Also available in this mode is a series of 36 charts, providing a graphical perspective on the recent history of the following items:
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Commercial Stocks, by PADD
Crude Oil Commercial Imports
Crude Oil Commercial Stocks
Distillate Imports
Distillate Products Supplied
Distillate Stocks
Finished Gasoline Imports
Finished Gasoline Products Supplied |
Four Major Products Supplied
Gasoline Blending Components Imports
Gasoline Blending Components Stocks
High Sulfur Distillate Stocks
Jet Kero Imports
Jet Kero Products Supplied
Jet Kero Stocks
Products Supplied |
Reformulated Gasoline Imports
Reformulated Gasoline Stocks
Residual Fuel Oil Imports
Residual Fuel Oil Products Supplied
Residual Fuel Oil Stocks
Total Gasoline Imports
Total Gasoline Stocks
Unfinished Oils Stocks |
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| NYMEX Open Interest
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| This mode provides a useful summary in Excel format of NYMEX Open Interest for crude oil, heating oil, unleaded gasoline, and natural gas. The data include a summary for front month, total open interest, and the ratio of front month to total, broken down by the number of days before contract expiration. There is also a summary sheet listing the Open Interest and trade prices broken down by the contract trade date, as well as a sheet comparing open interest for current and recent front-month contracts versus last year.
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| Futures Analysis
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OPTA has an entire section devoted to futures analysis, giving users exclusive, timely and convenient access to PIRA's constantly updated daily NYMEX and IPE price data and charts, which include historical and current price discovery to facilitate analysis. Users can examine specific contract performance from a historical perspective (e.g. April gasoline contract performance during March for each of the past five years). This capability extends to all spreads and contracts, enabling the user to identify recurring patterns and historical trade entry and exit points.
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Data retrieval (going back to 1986) allows the user to view the contract or spread's 12-month strip for that date over history in order to examine historical market structure and relationships. For example, a user could look at the entire 12-month strip for crude oil on November 1 during each of the past eight years.
The Futures Analysis section is divided into three modes:
- Trade Date Snapshot: Provides data tables you wish to see (from the choices of Contract Strip, Spread, Crack, or Front-to-Back) for the date you want.
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- Continuation Charts: OPTA users can follow the movements of one specific contract, crack, or spread over a period of time. The graphs are designed to make technical analysis as easy as possible. Users are able to study the markets and contracts they are interested in, over the short and long term; spot trends as they develop; and pinpoint critical historical patterns for more successful trading.
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- Evolution Charts: Users can create evolution charts that allow them to analyze and compare a specific contract, crack or spread with historical data covering a similar time period. For example, a user could analyze the price action for May gas cracks over the past five years to determine when they typically rise or fall
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at expiration. Utilizing this information,
traders and hedgers can each set entry and exit points and plan forward strategies.
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