Pan-European and Regional Focus
ENG is divided into four primary
components, each of which provides
two levels of analysis: a monthly
assessment of the entire European
gas market, plus special attention
paid to specific countries or issues
on a timely basis. The approach
starts with gas supply from Europe's
“big four” providers (Algeria,
the Netherlands, Norway, and Russia)
and demand trends among the most
mature and fastest growing European
markets. An assessment of the
overall European gas transportation
market establishes the context for
regional analyses and, finally, an
overview of oil indexes on gas
markets provides an outlook for
prices.
ENG goes a step further by
providing easy-to-access research
upon which the analysis is built. It
provides you with the entire pyramid
of information, so you not only can
know the story for Europe in its
entirety but several different
breakdowns of 21 individual
countries as well. As an Internet -
based product, ENG offers new levels
of depth in terms of providing
“the data within the data.” It
also offers a tracking system for
key gas contracts as well as a
survey of pipeline tariffs and
transit costs.
PIRA has defined regions with
common infrastructure and market
issues but breaks these regions down
into interlocking circles of
competition, rather than separate
spheres of influence. There is the
“PIRA Big Five”: France,
Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and
the UK. These countries hold the
biggest gas markets in Europe and
offer a diverse end-user base. One
or two gas suppliers have dominated
these countries for decades. Growth
has been steady, but liberalization
will change how demand grows.
Then there's also the “PIRA
Pacemakers” — Czech Republic,
Hungary, Poland, Spain, and Turkey —
a group of newly emerging gas
markets, which in some cases were
nothing more than transit countries
in the past but are now emerging as
central markets of their own. PIRA
also distinguishes between Northern
and Southern European markets,
which, while integrated through EU
liberalization, are evolving quite
differently. Southern Europe's
future is inextricably tied to the
Mediterranean market and North
African suppliers; Northern Europe
contends with a flood of suppliers
from the North Sea. And then there's
Russia's Gazprom, a single company
that controls 20% of the European
market. The lines continue to blur
when addressing Central Europe and
the Balkans, two markets where gas
demand plunged a decade ago and is
still a good 20 BCM/Y lower than a
decade ago. The market is there, but
who will supply it and will it be at
prices that end-users in developing
countries can afford?
Analytical Framework and Service
Details
PIRA takes the analytical approach
of recognizing the various
inter-relationships between four key
factors. Understanding these
fundamental issues and value drivers
is critical.
- Gauging the Fundamentals. Exports,
imports, production and stock
changes all affect demand, but
so does gross domestic product,
heating degree days and
industrial production. All of
these variables are woven into
PIRA's demand forecast for a
dozen countries in Europe on a
monthly basis.
- Marketing Issues. What's
a more profitable play, buying
gas at Zeebrugge or at the
German border? What's the
easiest way to sell Russian gas
in France, directly from Gazprom,
through a location swap, or from
storage? What's more important
to producers, establishing
direct sales to end-users or
maintaining the profitability of
existing transmission companies
in which they own stakes?
Storage was completely
irrelevant a few years ago; now
it is a primary price setter and
creator of hubs.
- New Competition. How
does gas-on-gas competition
impact your market? For example,
new Russian and North African
gas pipelines to Europe will
affect gas prices, raising them
at some price points and
lowering them at others — even
at locations hundreds of
kilometers away from the new
pipes being developed in the
region.
- Supply Changes. Russia,
Norway and Algeria are shifting
from their traditional positions
as baseload suppliers to more
flexible schemes. Can they
compete with private producers
in the North Sea? Market control
will shift away from
transmission companies, but into
whose hands and how will those
transmission companies respond?
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