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Premium Retainer
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Global Biofuels Service:
Making Sense of the Biggest Change — and Challenge — to the Energy Industry in the 21st Century
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Go to:
The “deliverables” of the Global Biofuels Service
Who can benefit from the Global Biofuels Service
How to become a client of the Global Biofuels Service
Get more information on the
Global Biofuels Service
Launch
entire prospectus in PDF
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Why Follow the Biofuels Market?
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The global use of fuel-grade
ethanol and diesel manufactured
from natural (biological) sources
is growing at a rapid rate.
Biofuels represent a significant
potential renewable — and
possibly economical — source of
energy, while providing the
enviable benefits of producing
less greenhouse gas emissions than
hydrocarbons and creating new
jobs, particularly in the
agricultural industry. Helped by
recent high petroleum prices and
the desire for energy
independence, biofuels are also
gaining considerable political
support, reflected in mandates,
targets and tax incentives for
production in over 30 countries.
These favorable factors are
causing a proliferation of
bioethanol and biodiesel
production plants worldwide.
Compared to petroleum refineries
— newbuilding of which has
virtually stopped — biofuels
plants are relatively inexpensive
and can be constructed much
faster. Yet amid this rapid
development, many important
questions are being raised: How
will government regulations
evolve? How much capacity will be
built and how much biofuel will be
produced? What will be the trade
patterns? What will be the prices
of biofuels? How will they impact
the supply/demand and prices of
the agricultural raw materials?
Will the increase in demand for
agricultural products change the
demand pattern and price of some
foods? What will be the
profitability of biofuel
manufacturing in the longer term?
For the traditional energy player, however, biofuels development raises broader issues, posing a different set of vexing questions. What will be the impact on energy and related industries, including the need for additional refining capacity? Will biofuels reduce dependence on foreign oil, and if so by how much? What will be the impact on demand for, and prices of, crude oil and refined products? How will the use of biofuels impact the transportation industry?
To answer these questions, both
established energy companies and
new “agri-energy” concerns
around the world need a reliable,
concise, yet comprehensive and
continuous source of historical
and current biofuels information
and analysis. They also require
reasonable and objective market
forecasts, allowing them to
navigate profitably the rapidly
emerging biofuels market. To help
them,
PIRA Energy Group's Global
Biofuels Service provides the
same exhaustive supply-and-demand
fundamentals data, analysis, and
projections that have been the
hallmark of the other
PIRA retainer services.
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Global, Comprehensive Analysis
of Bioethanol and Biodiesel
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The Global Biofuels Service
provides an in-depth analysis of
the commercial markets for
bioethanol in the U.S. and Brazil,
which account for about 90% of
global bioethanol production.
Other countries/regions with
active bioethanol programs are
also covered, including China,
Europe, Canada, Colombia,
Argentina, South Africa, India,
Thailand, Indonesia, Australia and
New Zealand.
Further, the service covers in
detail the biodiesel industry in
Western Europe — which accounts
for 80% of global biodiesel
production — and in the U.S.
Regular analysis of other
countries that have active
biodiesel programs, such as China,
Brazil, Poland, Bulgaria,
Slovenia, South Africa, Indonesia,
Malaysia, South Korea, Singapore,
the Philippines and India, is also
provided.
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| PIRA's ongoing
analysis tracks and discusses the
following issues for each country:
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- Government mandates and incentives
- Supply
- Demand
- Trade
- Market structure
- Agricultural feedstocks for production
- Prices
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| The depth of PIRA's analysis may vary for each individual country, depending on the size and importance of a particular country's biofuels industry and the availability of information.
Particular emphasis is placed on reviewing historical and current ethanol pricing and manufacturing economics in the U.S. and making projections built on
PIRA’s forecast of crude oil and refined product volumes and prices, which are the main price-determining mechanisms for bioethanol and biodiesel. Other liquid fuels produced from biomass, such as methanol and butanol, will also be covered as those markets develop.
Another important component of the service is an online database of global ethanol plants. This database lists information on existing plants’ ownership, location, and firm and probable expansions, as well as an encapsulation of new facilities to be built around the world.
When available, data such as specific feedstock, production process, technology provider, capital costs and marketers are provided.
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| What Are the “Deliverables” of the Global Biofuels Service?
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Clients to the Biofuels Service receive the following service features:
1.
Comprehensive Monthly Report
The Global Biofuels Monthly Forecast
provides clients with an up-to-date assessment of the major market dynamics. The following key issues are covered:
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- Global mandates and targets for biofuels –
A review of recent biofuels initiatives worldwide.
- U.S. ethanol production, consumption, imports and inventories – Historical data for the current year and monthly forecasts.
- Existing capacity, plants under construction and planned facilities – Review of the current capacity and forecast for the next year.
- Crude oil and refined products prices – Historical prices for the current year and monthly forecasts.
- U.S. ethanol prices – Historical prices for New York, Chicago, Gulf Coast and Southern California. Analysis of the price-setting mechanism. Forecast of monthly Midwest ethanol prices.
- Corn raw material prices – Historical prices and monthly forecast for the U.S. Midwest.
- International ethanol prices – Historical values for Brazilian, European and Asian FOB prices.
- U.S. Midwest ethanol manufacturing economics and corn crush – Historical economics and monthly forecasts.
- U.S. biodiesel manufacturing economics.
- U.S. diesel and biodiesel prices in the Gulf Coast and Midwest –
Historical prices and monthly forecasts.
- European diesel, rapeseed
biodiesel, and palm oil biodiesel prices – Historical prices and monthly forecasts.
- Brazilian biofuels
legislation and prices.
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2.
Biofuels Weekly Update
This deliverable keeps clients apprised of changes in the industry on a more immediate basis than the monthly forecast, featuring updated U.S. biofuel prices and manufacturing economics. Contents include:
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- Ethanol prices (vs. NYRBOB)
- Chicago ethanol price (vs. Chicago
ULR)
- NY ethanol vs. Brazil ethanol FOB price
- U.S. ethanol economics
- U.S. biodiesel economics and
prices
- West Europe biodiesel prices
- Brazilian domestic and
export ethanol prices
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| (Note: weeks in which a monthly report is delivered will not have the Weekly Update)
3.
Global Biofuels Special Reports
Important industry developments such as
legislation, manufacturing
economics, raw material analysis,
impact on energy savings,
reduction in greenhouse gases,
etc. will be discussed and analyzed in detail on an “as-events-dictate” basis.
4.
World
Biofuels Plant Database
A critical feature of the Service, the database will include an up-to-date forecast of existing and planned
bioethanol and biodiesel facilities. Clients
will have the ability to search listings by year, company, region, country, U.S. PADD, etc. (To be
released in stages during 2007.)
5.
PIRA Online
All reports, data tables, and presentations associated with the Biofuels Retainer Service are available to clients through a customized Biofuels Service “portal” on PIRA Online.
6.
Access to PIRA Staff
Biofuels Service clients are entitled to contact PIRA's biofuels analysts via email or telephone for information gathering and analytical support.
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| Who Can Benefit from the Biofuels Service?
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As the biofuels industry develops, keeping abreast of current information and market dynamics is crucial for industry participants. PIRA's Biofuels Service will keep clients up to speed with cutting-edge market intelligence and fundamental analysis that can be relied on to make key decisions on a day-to-day basis.
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- Energy companies — producers, refiners, blenders, storage companies, shippers and traders —
all will be able to make better-informed decisions on where and when to secure biofuels, improving flexibility and diversifying sources for their business.
- Manufacturers of ethanol and biodiesel will be able to monitor supply/demand developments and better identify market opportunities. Specifically, the agricultural feedstock and biofuels pricing projections are useful for negotiating contracts.
- Agricultural companies / biofuel feedstock suppliers will gain valuable information for marketing biofuels and be in a position to review the possibilities for downstream integration.
- Banks and financial companies will be able to better evaluate projects for potential investment or financing opportunities.
- Technology and engineering companies can monitor developments in the industry and identify business trends and opportunities.
- Transportation companies can assess the impact of the biofuel industry on their businesses.
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| The Biofuels Group:
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Dr. Bruce H. Pickover (Director, Biofuels) manages PIRA’s Global Biofuels Service. Dr. Pickover began his career at ExxonMobil where he worked on petrochemicals and the refinery interface. He spent 27 years at consulting company Chem Systems were he was responsible for the Petroleum and Petrochemical Economics (PPE) program, multi-subscriber Studies, and commercial proprietary studies. Dr. Pickover has a Bachelors of Chemical Engineering from the City College of N.Y. and earned an M.Ch.E
and a Ph.D. from New York
University.
Olivier François (Manager, Biofuels)
joined PIRA’s Biofuels Group and is
responsible for the development of
the Biofuel Retainer Service and
World Biofuels Plant Database. Prior
to PIRA, he was working with the
World Bank Group on carbon emissions
as project developer. Mr. François
holds a Masters degree from the
Johns Hopkins School of Advanced
International Studies (SAIS) with a
focus on energy and environment. In
France, he completed the École
Polytechnique in science and general
engineering, and the ENGREF in
environmental engineering. David A. Zinamon (Managing Director, Refining and Environmental Affairs) specializes in refined products, refinery operations, NGLs, alternative fuels and environmental matters, particularly as they affect petroleum product markets. Among other activities he is responsible for PIRA’s World Refinery Database. Dave also authors PIRA’s monthly NGL market report. Dave joined PIRA in 1984 after seven years of international energy consulting experience with
Chem Systems. This followed several years of manufacturing, marketing and planning positions with Celanese Chemical, GAF Corp., and Airco. Mr. Zinamon has a B.Ch.E. from City College of New York and an MBA from Rutgers University.
Dr. Ronald B. Gold (Senior Director, Emissions Group) is an international energy economist with broad experience in analyzing energy, economic, and environmental trends. Dr. Gold retired from Exxon at the end of 1997, where he was company economist and Manager of the Energy Outlook Division. Prior, he worked for the U.S. Treasury Department, Office of Tax Analysis, and was also an assistant professor of economics at Ohio State University. Dr. Gold received his undergraduate degree from Brooklyn College, City University of New York, and his M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from Princeton.
Dr. Mark Schwartz (President) works closely with PIRA's Global Oil and Natural Gas groups to evaluate the key assumptions underlying their outlooks and to develop plausible alternative assumptions and outcomes. Before joining PIRA in 2002, he was the Chief Economist of ExxonMobil Corp., where he was responsible for developing the company’s long-range economic and energy outlook. During his 25 years at Exxon he also had assignments in Upstream Planning, Treasurers, and Corporate Planning functions. He holds a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Pennsylvania.
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